US embassy cable - 03KATHMANDU468

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000468 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL 
NSC FOR MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, NP, Political Parties, Government of Nepal (GON) 
SUBJECT: NEPAL'S TOP POLITICOS SHUN PM; PUSH FOR ALL-PARTY 
GOVERNMENT 
 
REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 0426 
 
     B. (B) KATHMANDU 0292 
 
Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI.  REASON:  1.5 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) On March 10 leaders of most political parties 
boycotted for the second time an all-party meeting called by 
interim Prime Minister Chand.  One day later, 11 left-wing 
parties, including the Maoists, met to discuss "a joint 
movement" against Chand's government.  King Gyanendra met 
separately with leaders of most major political parties on 
March 10 and 11.  In at least one of these meetings, the King 
reportedly hinted at dissatisfaction with the performance of 
the interim government, thereby presumably opening the 
possibility of a replacement.  On March 12 the leaders of the 
two largest political parties agreed to press the King either 
to reinstate Parliament or establish an all-party government 
to replace the Chand government.  The parties' continued 
opposition to the Chand government and increasingly unified 
stand may increase pressure on the Palace to consider an 
all-party government.  The Maoists, however, are likely to 
object strongly to such a government if it is headed by the 
moderate Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist 
(UML).  End summary. 
 
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PARTIES MEET KING; 
SHUN CHAND 
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2.  (C)  On March 10 and 11 King Gyanendra met separately 
with the leaders of most political parties that had members 
in the previous Parliament.  (Note:  The King did not meet 
with the heads of the National Democratic Party and the Nepal 
Sadbhavana Party, the parties of the Prime Minister and 
Deputy Prime Minister respectively, as they are already 
represented in the interim government.  Amik Sherchan, leader 
of the far-left People's Front Nepal, declined the King's 
invitation because it did not satisfy the parties' previous 
request to meet the monarch as a group.  End note.)  In his 
March 11 meeting with Sher Bahadur Deuba, former Prime 
Minister and current head of the Nepali Congress 
(Democratic), the King "conveyed the impression that he is 
not satisfied with the current government" of Prime Minister 
Lokendra Bahadur Chand, according to Minendra Rijal, a Deuba 
confidante, and hinted at the possibility of an all-party 
government.  Deuba reportedly told the King that he would 
participate, if asked, in such a government.  Deuba's party 
has not formed "a firm opinion" regarding prospects for 
peace, Rijal said, since "we don't know what arrangements 
(have been made) between the King and the Maoists" and are 
thus only "second-guessing the Government." 
 
3.  (U)  While nearly all of the parties accepted the King's 
invitation to meet, none (except the National Democratic 
Party and the Nepal Sadbhavana Party) extended similar 
courtesy to PM Chand on March 10, when they boycotted for the 
second time in two months an all-party meeting he called to 
discuss propsective negotiations with the Maoists.  The local 
independent press reporting the boycott accorded prominent 
coverage to party leaders' derisive characterizations of the 
Chand government ("unconstitutional," "illegitimate," 
"puppet") to justify their decisions to stay away.  With so 
many no-shows, an all-party meeting originally intended to 
discuss how the interim government can bring the Maoists into 
the political mainstream focused instead on how the interim 
government could induce parties already in the political 
mainstream to recognize its legitimacy. 
 
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LEFT-WING UNITY 
---------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) On March 11 Madhav Kumar Nepal, General Secretary 
of the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist 
(UML), hosted a meeting of representatives of 11 far-left 
parties, including the Maoists--the first time all 11 parties 
had met together since the early 1990s, according to one 
participant.  (Note:  Only 3 of the 11 had representatives in 
the most recent Parliament.  End note.)  C.P. Mainali, 
Chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal - Marxist Leninist 
(ML), who attended the meeting, said Nepal proposed the 
formation of an all-party government to replace the current 
non-party government.  All of the legal party participants 
supported the proposal, Mainali reported.  Maoist 
representative Dinanath Sharma said he must seek his 
leadership's permission before making a commitment, but 
pledged support for "progressive change," including the 
parties' "united move" to protest the King's "regressive 
action" (i.e., his appointment of a non-party interim 
government in October).  The proposal must be approved by the 
three political forces--the King, the parties, and the 
Maoists--if it is to work, Mainali noted.  He said he is 
optimistic that both the Palace and the Maoists, who he said 
do not recognize the Chand government, will accept the 
proposal.  The Maoists would not be able to participate 
directly in the envisioned all-party government, Mainali 
said, but could perhaps nominate surrogate representatives 
from legal far-left parties sympathetic to them.  Whether the 
Maoists would accept an all-party government headed by Madhav 
Nepal is a "difficult question," Mainali conceded, but 
suggested that the contentious question of leadership could 
be amicably sorted out once the Maoists endorse the concept 
of an all-party government. 
 
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KOIRALA CLIMBS DOWN 
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5.  (SBU)  In a show of unprecedented unity, on March 12 the 
leaders of four Parliamentary parties, including UML General 
Secretary Nepal and Nepali Congress President G.P. Koirala, 
 
SIPDIS 
announced that they would support replacing the Chand 
government with either an all-party government (Nepal's 
preferred option) or through the reinstatement of Parliament 
(Koirala's pet proposal).  (Note:  Although the National 
Democratic Party did not attend that meeting, its leadership 
has indicated privately it would join an all-party 
government.  End note.)   The leaders said they will seek a 
joint meeting with the King to explain their proposals, and 
will foster public support and pressure through a series of 
mass meetings.  The statement marks the first time Nepali 
Congress President Koirala has compromised on his previously 
rigid stand that Parliament must be reinstated. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6.  (C)  Before March 12 the Parliamentary parties (minus the 
PM's National Democratic and the Deputy PM's Nepal Sadbhavana 
Parties) had been united only in their opposition to the 
Chand government.  Disagreement over what (or, more 
accurately, who) would replace the King's appointed Cabinet 
had prevented the formation of a unified multipartisan front. 
 The Nepali Congress' Koirala had been especially rigid in 
his near-monomaniacal insistence on reinstating Parliament. 
As long as the parties remained divided, the Palace could 
more easily dismiss their complaints about the "illegitimate" 
interim government by citing their failure to propose a 
workable alternative.  The parties' new-found unity and 
Koirala's atypical compromise will make this more difficult. 
The multi-partisan unity, if it lasts, will also complicate 
matters for the Maoists, who had thrived on the partisan 
strife of the domestic political arena over the past decade. 
We agree with Mainali's analysis that the all-party proposal 
must win the approval of the Palace, parties, and the Maoists 
in order to succeed, but are less sanguine that the 
all-important question of who would lead this government may 
not prove a deal-breaker.  Despite the lip service to 
"progressive change" the Maoist representative offered in his 
meeting with the left parties, we sincerely doubt the 
insurgents would welcome any "progressive change" that 
results in a government led by its arch enemy, the UML. 
 
 
 
 
MALINOWSKI