US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO430

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000430 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  03-13-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINS, CE, NO, JA, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT:  Tigers still seem on board for talks at this 
point, but situation remains volatile 
 
Refs:  Colombo 421, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador E. Ashley Wills. 
Reasons 1.5 (b, d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  In the aftermath of the sinking of one 
of their ships, the Tigers have withdrawn cadre from 
areas in the north/east.  At this point, they still seem 
willing to attend the talks due to be held March 18-21 
in Japan.  A Norwegian team is in country, trying to 
keep things afloat.  The situation is volatile, but the 
Tigers appear unlikely to break contact.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) TIGERS WITHDRAW PERSONNEL.  Reverberations from 
the GSL navy's sinking of a Liberation Tigers of Tamil 
Eelam (LTTE) ship on March 10 continue to rock the peace 
process.  (Note:  Despite Tiger claims that it was a 
"merchant" vessel, the ship was almost certainly 
carrying a large quantity of arms when it was 
intercepted off Sri Lanka's northeast coast.  The ship's 
11-member LTTE crew is presumed dead -- see Reftels.) 
In an apparent sign of the group's anger over the 
incident, the LTTE has ordered its political cadre based 
in government-controlled areas of the north and east to 
return to the LTTE-controlled Wanni region.  Initially, 
it was thought that the move was made so cadre could 
attend a briefing.  Sources in the north and east 
report, however, that the move seems much more long-term 
based on the fact that the cadre took their office 
equipment and furniture with them.  The Tigers have not 
issued a statement explaining their action, but contacts 
believe the group is trying to send a message to the 
government that all is not well with the peace process 
following the March 10 incident. 
 
3.  (SBU) In addition to withdrawing their personnel, 
the Tigers are showing their displeasure in other ways. 
On March 12, the group sponsored a hartal (strike) in 
Jaffna protesting the sinking of the ship.  The hartal 
closed down shops and schools in the Jaffna area.  Black 
flags were put up and students put on black armbands. 
While it was disruptive, no violence was reported.  The 
LTTE is also sponsoring a hartal in the major north- 
central town of Vavuniya today (March 13). 
 
4.  (C) TALKS SEEM TO BE ON.  Despite their latest 
moves, the Tigers still seem to be planning to 
participate in the sixth round of GSL-LTTE talks 
scheduled to take place in Japan, March 18-21.  In a 
March 12 posting, TamilNet, a pro-LTTE website, cited 
Tiger chief negotiator Anton Balasingham as stating that 
the Tigers were upset with the sinking of the ship, but 
still wanted "to participate constructively in the peace 
process."  Balasingham went on to indicate that the 
Tigers would participate in the talks.  (Note:  In an 
interview with BBC, Balasingham seemed a bit testier, 
indicating that the Tiger leadership was still examining 
whether to attend the talks.) 
 
5.  (C) For its part, the government seems relatively 
confident that the talks will take place.  On March 13, 
Ambassador Bernard Goonetilleke, the chief of the 
government's Peace Secretariat, told us that as far as 
he knew the talks were a "go."  He said the Tigers had 
just provided the GSL a list of names for their 
delegation.  (Note:  As with previous rounds, the list 
includes Balasingham, political chief S.P. 
Thamilchelvam, and Karuna, the eastern commander.)  In 
addition, the LTTE had requested hotel rooms at the 
Hakone, Japan, resort where the talks are scheduled to 
be held.  Goonetilleke allowed that the Tigers could 
easily still change their minds (see Para 6 below), but 
he thought they would attend the talks "because it was 
very much in their interest to discuss the assistance- 
related issues that will be on the agenda." 
(Note:  The sixth round is slated to focus on the 
delivery of development assistance, resettlement issues, 
human rights, and defense-related matters, inter alia.) 
 
6.  (C) NORWEGIAN TEAM ARRIVES.  As part of Norway's 
ongoing peace facilitation effort, Deputy Foreign 
Minister Vidar Helgesen has arrived in Sri Lanka for a 
March 12-16 visit.  (Note:  Foreign Minster Petersen was 
supposed to lead the GoN peace facilitation team during 
the long-planned visit, but had to cancel because of the 
Iraq situation.)  The visit has taken on a new sense of 
urgency due to the March 10 incident, and Helgesen is 
doing his best to ensure that there is no breakdown in 
the peace process.  His most critical meeting is on 
March 13, when he meets with LTTE leader V. Prabhakaran 
and Balasingham in the Wanni.  According to Ambassador 
Goonetilleke, it will be the Helgesen-Prabhakaran 
meeting which will determine whether the LTTE will, in 
fact, attend the March 18-21 talks and, if so, what will 
be on the agenda.  While in Sri Lanka, Helgesen is also 
scheduled to meet with President Kumaratunga and to 
travel to sites in the southern part of the country.  He 
met with Prime Minister Wickremesinghe on March 12. 
 
7.  (C) In the meantime, the Norwegian-run Sri Lanka 
Monitoring Mission (SLMM) has also been engaging the 
LTTE.  New SLMM chief Major General (retd) Tryggve 
Teleffsen met with political chief Thamilchelvam on 
March 12 in the Wanni town of Kilinochchi.  The meeting 
focused on ways to avoid a repeat of the March 10 
incident.  SLMM spokesman Teitur Torklesen told us that 
the meeting was "productive." 
 
8.  (C) COMMENT:  There is little doubt that the LTTE is 
in a deeply angry mood.  Natural bullies, the Tigers 
viscerally dislike coming up with the short end of the 
stick in any confrontation.  That said, despite some 
rumors to the contrary, most observers we have touched 
base with believe that the LTTE is unlikely to break 
contact over the March 10 incident.  The feeling is that 
the group has invested a lot in the process and does not 
want to let go just yet.  The situation is highly 
volatile, however, and it still seems possible that a 
hard-line response could prevail in Tiger councils, as 
it has many times before.  END COMMENT. 
 
9.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
WILLS