US embassy cable - 03AMMAN1530

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 001530 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, SOCI, JO 
SUBJECT: OUTSIDE AMMAN, MANY FEAR ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF 
IRAQ WAR, HOPE FOR MOVEMENT ON MEPP 
 
REF: AMMAN 1336 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR EDWARD GNEHM, REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D) 
 
1. (C) Summary.  In March 5 and 6 meetings in Salt and Aqaba 
with Poloff, a number of  prominent Jordanian businessmen and 
politicians provided an "outside-the-beltway" assessment of 
the GOJ's recent decision to schedule Parliamentary elections 
in June and the issue on everyone's mind, Iraq.  While 
opinions on the importance of setting a date for elections 
ran the gamut from inconsequential to highly important, the 
consensus was that should the war cause instability in 
Jordan, elections might be postponed again.  As to the Iraq 
war, while no one wants war and no one likes Saddam, there is 
concern for the impact such a war will have on the Jordanian 
economy, its people and the region as a whole. End Summary. 
 
------------------------------------ 
REACTION TO PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
------------------------------------ 
 
2. (C)  On March 5 and 6, Poloff visited several prominent 
businessmen, ex-Parliamentarians and one ex Ambassador to 
Iraq in Salt (a medium-sized city 30 minutes from Amman) and 
Aqaba, Jordan's port city and a 3 hour drive south of Amman. 
 While most of our contacts were enthusiastic about the 
government's announcement to hold elections on June 17, many 
wondered whether it was wise to hold them during such a 
"sensitive time."  In response to poloff's question 
concerning reaction to the June elections, our contacts (all 
of whom can be counted in the solidly pro-regime column) made 
the following points: 
 
--Average Jordanians are worried about poverty and 
unemployment and many blame the government for this 
predicament.  Their main concern centers around having enough 
money to feed their families.  This situation leaves little 
time to focus on upcoming elections. 
 
--Voter turnout will be low because many people feel 
Parliament is inconsequential in their daily lives. 
 
--The GOJ announced elections as a distraction to keep 
people's minds occupied. 
 
--Parliament is ineffective without real political parties. 
 
--The Islamists will do well. The Islamic Action Front (IAF) 
is expected to participate and win a significant minority 
share of seats in the next Parliament. 
 
--As to the six women's seats in Parliament, some considered 
it a move in the right direction, while others felt that the 
addition of six or more women to the mix would make no 
difference at all. (Note: All of our interlocutors on these 
visits were male) 
 
All of our contacts believe that the conduct and outcome of a 
war in Iraq will determine whether or not the government will 
ultimately proceed with elections in June. 
 
------------------ 
IRAQ WAR REACTION 
------------------ 
 
3. (C) Referring to the expected war in Iraq, the 
ex-parliamentarian from Salt, Salameh Hiyari, stated that 
people feel frustrated, impotent and unable to express 
themselves because of government restrictions.  He is 
concerned with how quiet people are and worries that such 
unreleased pressure might boil at some future time. Other 
contacts were more concerned with the impact a war in Iraq 
would have on Jordan's already difficult economic situation, 
the prospect of Iraqi refugees flowing into the Kingdom and 
the fear that Sharon will take advantage of the situation in 
Iraq and expel Palestinians to Jordan.  While most are deeply 
concerned about the short term impact on Jordan, most also 
expressed guarded optimism that in the long-run, Jordan would 
greatly benefit by participating in much needed 
infrastructure improvements in Iraq and normalization of 
trade between the two countries.  They also hoped the United 
States would be able to provide substantial aid to Jordan to 
cushion the war's impact. 
 
--------- 
COMMENT 
--------- 
 
4. (C)  All our out-of-town contacts reiterated the view that 
being against the war in Iraq is not tantamount to support 
for Saddam Hussein.  Most agreed that the currently high 
level of anti-US sentiment on the street would be minimized 
if the war is quick and Iraqi civilian casualties are kept at 
a minimum.  Further, all vehemently stated that the U.S. 
after the war must quickly re-focus on the 
Israeli-Palestinian issue. 
GNEHM