US embassy cable - 03RANGOON334

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000334 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP AND INL 
TREASURY FOR OASIA 
CDR PACOM FOR FPA 
DEA FOR OF, OFF 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2013 
TAGS: SNAR, KCRM, BM 
SUBJECT: OPIUM CULTIVATION DOWN SHARPLY IN BURMA 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez.  Reason: 1.5 (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: According to UNODC experts, Burma's notorious 
Kokang Region is now free of opium.  So is northern Shan 
State from Kutkai to Muse.  According to UNODC's opium 
surveyors, preliminary indications from the data they have 
collected throughout Shan State suggest that the area under 
opium cultivation in Burma may be reduced by as much as 30 to 
50 percent this year, despite excellent weather throughout 
the opium growing territories.  Yields, however, will be 
higher and it is still too soon to say whether the overall 
crop will be higher or lower.  According to UNODC, former 
poppy farmers from the opium-free areas are on the move 
throughout Shan State, seeking work and food for their 
families.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) Jeremy Milsom, who is supervising UNODC's survey of 
opium production in Burma, told poloff on March 11 that the 
GOB's efforts to curtail opium production had had a major 
impact in 2003.  According to Milsom the Kokang region and 
all of northern Shan State from Kutkai to Muse was free of 
opium.  UNODC teams had been through all of those areas and 
had found no opium at all.  UNODC saw no evidence of opium in 
Shan State Special Region No. 4 around Mong La, which had 
declared itself opium-free in 1997.  Milsom said that UNODC 
was still compiling its date for central, eastern, and 
southern Shan State and that it was still hard to estimate 
the overall reduction in opium acreage throughout Shan State. 
 Nevertheless, an initial survey of the data suggested that 
the overall reduction could be in the range of 30 to 50 
percent of last year's 80,000 hectare crop. 
 
3. (C) On the downside, Milsom said that there was not much 
reduction of opium acreage in the Wa territories, which were 
now the only region in Burma where there was any latitude at 
all for opium cultivation.  (The Wa are pledged to end opium 
production in 2005.)  Even there, however, UNODC was able to 
verify that townships around the Wa heartland of Mong Maw and 
its capital of Pang Sang were free of opium.  Ironically, 
Milsom noted, in the past, outside observers had always 
attributed a majority of Burma's opium production to the Wa 
territories, even though surveys had regularly shown 
production in the Wa territories to be only 20 to 25 percent 
of Burma's whole crop.  This year, however, with the 
reduction in the other cease-fire areas and in government 
controlled territories, the Wa could indeed end up producing 
a majority of Burma's opium. 
 
4. (C) Milsom also noted that yields were definitely higher 
this year, thanks to timely rains in November and December. 
As a result, it was still too early to say whether the 
overall opium crop in Burma would be higher or lower than 
last year.  If the increase in yield offsets the decline in 
acreage, it would be higher; otherwise it would be lower. 
 
5. (C) Finally, Milsom noted that the impact of the end of 
opium production was being felt throughout northern Shan 
State.  Former opium farmers were flocking into the Wa 
territories seeking work to support their families. 
Fortunately, the rice crop this year in the Wa territories 
was excellent and there was work.  In future months and 
years, however, the fate of these farmers and their families 
will depend on what alternatives they find to opium 
production. 
 
Comment 
 
6. (C) Two points are worth making here.  First, if these 
preliminary indications hold up, the Burmese may, in fact, 
reduce acreage under cultivation even in a good weather year. 
 This year the weather has been excellent and prime growing 
areas like the Kokang region, Kutkai, and Muse are all free 
of opium, essentially as a result of firm GOB enforcement 
actions.  Weather had little, if anything, to do with those 
changes. 
 
7. (C) Secondly, the former opium poppy farmers now searching 
for the means of livelihood in Shan State need the support of 
the GOB and the international community.  The international 
community can and should provide more assistance for 
alternative development programs that will give these farmers 
options.  End Comment. 
Martinez