US embassy cable - 03ANKARA1528

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001528 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SE, EUR/PGI, OES/PCI, OES/EGC 
STATE PLEASE PASS EPA (HHUYNH) 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV, TBIO, TU 
SUBJECT:  AIR POLLUTION IN TURKEY: YOU CAN'T MANAGE WHAT YOU 
CAN'T MEASURE 
 
REF:  02 ANKARA 8870 
 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary.  Turkey's air pollution monitoring 
infrastructure is inconsistent and largely unreliable, 
making it nearly impossible to assess the level of Turkey's 
air quality and its effects on health. Reliance on fossil 
fuels for industrial activity, domestic heating, and vehicle 
travel are the primary source of air pollution.  Officials 
involved are aware of the inadequacy of the system and the 
GOT has taken modest steps to improve air quality.  However, 
overall air pollution remains a major issue.  End Summary. 
 
 
Primary Sources of Pollution 
---------------------------------- 
2. (U) The primary sources of Turkey's air pollution are 
emissions from industrial activity, domestic heating and 
vehicle traffic, which rely largely on lignite (coal), 
petroleum, and wood.  Urbanization issues, such as poorly 
planned industrialization, unregulated squatter communities 
and insufficient green space, exacerbate air pollution in 
populated areas, Istanbul and Ankara in particular.  Air 
pollution, which peaked in those cities in the 1980s and 
1990s, is now a growing issue in mid-size cities, such as 
Kutahya and Afyon, which endured the highest concentrations 
of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and particulate matter (PM) among 
mid-sized cities in the 1990s. 
 
 
3.  (U) Turkey's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita 
are the lowest in the OECD.  Conversely, Turkey exceeds OECD 
SO2 averages by 300 percent.  Turkey's 1999 National 
Environmental Action Plan (NEAP) projects that all 
parameters in Turkey will increase between 1985 and 2010. 
They project that PM will rise from 960,000 to 1.9 million 
tons; SO2 from one million to 3.5 million tons; and nitrogen 
dioxide (NO2) from 357 to 1.2 million. 
 
 
4.  (U) By all accounts, the power industry is Turkey's most 
polluting, producing 40 percent of national emissions. 
Other polluting industries are fertilizer, iron and steel, 
paper and cellulose, sugar, cement, textile, petrochemical, 
pesticide, and leather.  Of 3,500 industrial facilities, MOE 
estimates that only half have emission permits.  Only a 
fraction of them (6.3 percent in 2001) have pollution 
prevention equipment. With continuing economic growth 
expected, industrial emissions will soon replace households 
as the leading source of PM. The transportation and 
electronic sectors, which are growing quicker than GDP and 
rely on lignite, will increase NO2 emissions. 
 
 
Attempts at Legislation 
----------------------- 
5. (U) After decades of increasingly noticeable urban air 
pollution, Turkey passed its 1986 Air Quality Protection 
Regulation, modeled on German regulations and designed to 
control emissions, protect human health and prevent negative 
affects of pollution.  While Germany has subsequently thrice 
strengthened its regulations, Turkey has not and the 
regulations reflect standards comparable to less 
environmentally committed countries.  Turkey's regulations 
allow a higher level of air pollutants than recommended by 
WHO, sometimes by more than twice as much. 
 
 
6.  (U) The Ministry of Health (MOH), supported by the 
Ministry of Environment (MOE), is responsible for air 
quality. The MOH issues emission permits based on MOE 
recommendations and regulations.  Together with provincial 
or greater municipality authorities, these ministries are 
empowered to close down facilities that exceed regulations. 
The Environment law and Municipality law conflict and 
authorize several government agencies to levy fines, 
underscoring the lack of cross agency coordination. New air 
pollution regulations that will parallel EU regulations in 
spirit, but not in parameter levels, are under discussion. 
 
 
7.  (U) Turkish regulations call for the measurement of 18 
ambient air quality parameters but Turkey measures only two 
-- SO2 and PM.  These two are insufficient to gauge 
potential affects on human health. The EU requires its 
member states to monitor between 17 and 25 parameters. 
 
 
Pollution-Busting Programs 
-------------------------- 
8. (U) In the 1990s, spikes in Istanbul air quality were 
considered hazardous and Ankara's air was not much better. 
In response, Turkey began a series of actions: 
 
 
-- Banning lignite.  In 1991, both cities banned the use of 
domestic lignite and urged the use of cleaner burning but 
more expensive imported coal. Officials confiscated millions 
of tons of illegal coal, and SO2 and PM levels fell.  The 
MOE today says that Ankara's air quality is "okay" except 
for temperature inversions when pollution spikes.  But SO2 
levels remain high, as the ban was lifted and Turkey's 
continuing economic crises force many homes to rely on lower 
cost, less efficient lignite. Ankara exceeded WHO air 
standards for SO2 and PM during 11 days in 2001 and 38 days 
in 2002. 
 
 
-- Converting to natural gas.  Also during the 1990s, the 
GOT and municipalities constructed natural gas 
infrastructure for big cities and encouraged households to 
switch from domestic coal to natural gas heating.  Even 
though natural gas consumption is expected to rise from 15 
billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2000 to 82 bcm by 2020, many 
homes have not converted.  As a variety of factors drive 
natural gas prices up, residents once using natural gas 
retrieve their old coal-burning stoves and buy illegal, low 
cost lignite. 
 
 
-- Introducing unleaded gasoline. The nation's eight million 
vehicles contribute only 10 percent to national emissions 
but are a large part of urban pollution.  Of three million 
tons of gasoline sold in Turkey, about half are unleaded. 
Improved availability of unleaded gasoline has decreased 
emissions, but inconsistently applied pricing controls 
create little incentive to purchase unleaded over leaded 
gasoline. The MOE attributes the success of the unleaded 
gas/ catalytic converter program to support from the 
automobile and gasoline industries.  Begun in 1992, Turkey's 
nationwide annual motor vehicle inspections program checks 
for a number of parameters (carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, 
hydrocarbons) and issue fines based on regulations issued by 
MOE and the Turkish Institute of Standards. The program has 
yet to enjoy its full potential as many vehicles do not 
participate. 
 
 
-- Monitoring the polluting industries.  While Turkey 
derives about 50 percent of its energy from clean, renewable 
hydropower, the country's thermal power plants are extremely 
polluting. The ministries of Health and Environment are 
unable to apply national standards to those plants operated 
by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources.  Efforts to 
reduce those plants' high sulfur emissions that routinely 
exceed limits have proven unsuccessful, according to 
pollution consultants. In 1999, for example, the government 
re-opened three state owned thermal plants that had been 
closed due to excessive emission levels -- without any 
technological changes.  A plant in Yatagan has been closed 
and re-opened 51 times for emission infractions, but 
continues to operate with insufficient, out-of-date 
technology.  The reason cited for each re-opening is an 
energy crisis.  Even though several companies have pending 
transfer-of-operating rights contracts which, if 
implemented, would improve plants' environmental record, the 
GOT has failed to move forward on these contracts. 
 
 
Data Collection 
--------------- 
9. (U) To meet Turkey's air quality monitoring requirements, 
the MOH regularly collects data from 196 monitoring stations 
positioned around the country.  Big cities and provinces 
often purchase their own systems (Istanbul purchased 250 
units for about $2.5 million in 1990), but the MOH does not 
calculate municipally collected data in national statistics. 
 
 
10. (SBU) Air quality professionals complain loudly about 
Turkey's monitoring systems.  Obsolete equipment is 
inappropriately located, rarely properly calibrated, 
insufficient in quantity, and not designed for decision- 
making, they say. No capability exists to forecast air 
pollution spikes or to match pollution with the source. Data 
are inconsistent, frequently manipulated and basically 
unreliable. Data come from a "non-integrated, non- 
documented, non-network" but become official when published 
in State Institute of Statistics' monthly bulletins on air 
quality.  The professionals lament that with no valid data 
confirming the extent of Turkey's pollution problems, the 
government will ignore the issue: no data, no problem.  Even 
former Istanbul Mayor and current AK Party chairman Erdogan 
did not raise air pollution in last year's election 
campaign. 
Next Steps for Turkey 
--------------------- 
11. (SBU) The results of Turkey's actions have been mixed. 
EU, OECD and others including the MOE and consultants find 
that Turkey has achieved little progress in air quality in 
recent years.  Most equate the lack of progress with lack of 
resources.  Nor has Turkey responded to the frank 
recommendations of its own NEAP, or to assessments from 
international and local consultants. As one consultant said, 
"there are many air quality needs, but no demand; other 
priorities win out over the environment." 
 
 
U.S. Companies Lose Out 
----------------------- 
12.  (U) Although the U.S. has technological air quality 
expertise, French companies dominate the air pollution 
monitoring equipment market in Turkey with 90 percent market 
share.  An equipment sales representative for a dozen 
companies including two U.S. companies attributed this 
dominance to EU-content requirements for EU funded grants. 
 
 
International Agreements 
----------------------- 
13.  (U) Turkey is a signatory to two international air 
quality conventions: Stratospheric Ozone Layer Protection 
and the Long Range Transboundary Pollution Convention. 
Turkey has not signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate 
Change and is unlikely to sign the Kyoto Protocol as quickly 
as projected. 
 
 
Comment 
-------- 
15.  (SBU) As we have seen with other environmental issues, 
political will and managerial tools to address air quality 
are lacking in equal measure.  With economic activity and 
related air pollution projected to increase and 
harmonization with EU requirements a top priority, pressure 
will mount for Turkey to step up anti-pollution measures and 
improve its air quality monitoring system.  "You can't 
manage what you can't measure" will no longer apply. 
 
 
PEARSON