US embassy cable - 03ANKARA1513

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001513 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SE (SILVERMAN AND GOELLNER-SWEET), NEA/NGA 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TU, IZ, AF 
SUBJECT: TURKISH THINK TANK ALLEGES US PLANS TO REDEFINE 
"MIDDLE EAST." 
 
 
(U) CLASSIFIED BY DCM RDEUTSCH, REASONS 1.5 (B)(D). 
 
 
1.  ((C) SUMMARY:  ASAM, A RESEARCH ORGANIZATION PROVIDING 
ADVICE AND RESEARCH TO THE TGS AND THE GOT, ASSERTS THE USG'S 
POST-IRAQ GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGY INVOLVES REDEFINING THE 
MIDDLE EAST REGION TO INCLUDE AFGHANISTAN.  ASAM SUPPORTS THE 
ESTABLISHMENT OF AUTONOMOUS REGIONS FOR KURDS AND TURKMEN IN 
POST-WAR IRAQ BECAUSE IT BELIEVES THAT AN IRAQ BASED ON THE 
FEDERAL SYSTEM WILL SERVE AS A POTENTIAL CATALYST FOR 
REGIONAL INSTABILITY.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
2.  (C) WE MET WITH UMIT OZDAG, CHAIRMAN OF THE TURKISH 
CENTER FOR EURASIAN STRATEGIC STUDIES (ASAM) AT THE RESEARCH 
ORGANIZATION'S HEADQUARTERS IN THE CANKAYA SECTION OF ANKARA. 
 THE HEADQUARTERS ARE PLUSH, SUGGESTING THAT OZDAG HAS BEEN A 
SUCCESSFUL FUND-RAISER. ASAM WAS PREVIOUSLY FUNDED BY TGS. 
HOWEVER, ACCORDING TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE ADVANCED 
STRATEGY CENTER -- A THINK TANK WITH DEEP CONNECTIONS TO THE 
NSC, TGS, AND INTEL SERVICES -- ASAM IS NOW SUPPORTED BY A $5 
MILLION GRANT FROM ISLAMIST TURKISH FOOD PROCESSING COMPANY 
ULKER AS A WAY TO EXPAND ITS POLITICAL ACCESS TO THE 
SECULARIST ESTABLISHMENT.  OZDAG SAYS ASAM PROVIDES ADVICE TO 
THE TURKISH GENERAL STAFF (TGS) AND OTHER GOT ENTITIES AND HE 
CLAIMED GOOD RELATIONS WITH RESEARCH ORGANIZATIONS IN THE US, 
ASIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST.  HE CLAIMS NOT TO HAVE CLOSE 
RELATIONS WITH INSTITUTES IN WESTERN EUROPE, ALTHOUGH HIS 
GERMAN IS FLUENT FROM YEARS OF STUDY AND TEACHING IN GERMANY. 
 ASAM IS EMBARKING ON A NEW RESEARCH PROJECT THAT INVOLVES 
HOWARD UNIVERSITY IN WASHINGTON, DC, ACCORDING TO OZDAG. 
 
 
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US RESHAPING GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE 
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3.  (C) OZDAG STATED THAT HIS AND ASAM'S MIDDLE EAST FOCUS IS 
CURRENTLY MORE IN THE US OPERATION POTENTIAL IN IRAQ.  OZDAG 
BELIEVES THE US IS SEEKING TO RESHAPE THE GEOPOLITICAL 
LANDSCAPE OF THE MIDDLE EAST AFTER THE IRAQ ISSUE IS RESOLVED 
SO THAT AFGHANISTAN IS INCLUDED IN THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST 
REGION.  IN ANTICIPATION OF THE US'S POTENTIAL REDEFINITION 
OF THE REGION, ASAM HAS ENCOURAGED THE GOT TO SUPPORT 
INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS IN AFGHANISTAN TO FURTHER TURKEY'S OWN 
NATIONAL INTERESTS. 
 
 
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FEDERAL IRAQ AGAINST TURKISH NATIONAL INTERESTS 
--------------------------------------------- - 
4.  (C) OZDAG ECHOES THE STANDARD OFFICIAL TURKISH LINE THAT 
THE CREATION OF A FEDERAL IRAQ IS AGAINST TURKISH NATIONAL 
INTERESTS.  FURTHER, OZDAG STATES THAT A FEDERAL IRAQ WOULD 
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED ETHNIC TENSIONS IN TURKEY.  OZDAG 
WOULD PREFER TO SEE IRAQ REORGANIZED INTO A "UNIFIED, 
DEMOCRATIC COUNTRY," ESTABLISHING AUTONOMOUS REGIONS FOR BOTH 
KURDS AND TURKMEN.  OZDAG ALLEGES THAT THERE ARE 2 1/2 
MILLION TURKMEN AND 4 MILLION KURDS IN IRAQ.  DENYING BOTH 
KURDS AND TURKMEN AUTONOMOUS REGIONS, OZDAG ASSERTS, WOULD 
VIOLATE BOTH NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL LAWS. 
 
 
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COOPERATION WITH KURDS AGAINST TURKISH INTERESTS 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
5.  (C) OZDAG BELIEVES THAT WASHINGTON'S COOPERATION WITH 
KURDS IS INCONSISTENT WITH TURKISH INTERESTS.  HE PREDICTS 
SUPPORT FOR KURDS WILL EXTRACT ITS OWN SOCIAL PRICE IN 
TURKEY, SINCE THERE ARE MANY IN TURKEY WHO WILL FOLLOW A 
KURDISH "ANTI-POPE" AS A RESULT. 
 
 
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SHI'A  DO NOT NEED AUTONOMY 
-------------------------- 
6.  (C)  OZDAG DOES NOT PERCEIVE A NEED FOR AUTONOMOUS 
REGIONS/STATUS FOR IRAQI SHI'A, A MAJORITY POPULATION IN IRAQ 
BUT, RATHER, THAT OTHER MINORITY GROUPS REQUIRED SPECIAL 
PROTECTION FROM THE SHI'A.  HE NOTED THAT TEL AVIV WOULD 
PROBABLY OPPOSE ANY AUTONOMY FOR THE SHI'A. 
 
 
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US DOESN'T CARE ABOUT NEW IRAQI GOVERNMENT 
-------------------------------------------- 
7.  (C) BELIEVING THE US DOES NOT CARE ABOUT THE COMPOSITION 
OF THE NEW IRAQI GOVERNMENT, OZDAG WARNS THAT ESTABLISHING A 
FEDERAL IRAQ WILL PLANT THE SEEDS OF LONG-TERM REGIONAL 
INSTABILITY.  ANKARA, OUT OF SELF INTEREST, WILL BE COMPELLED 
TO ESTABLISH CLOSER TIES TO TEHERAN AND DAMASCUS, AS IT DID 
IN THE EARLY NINETIES, HE AVERRED. 
 
 
8.  (C)  COMMENT:  OZDAG'S ASSERTIONS REFLECT THE MIDDLE OF 
THE CURVE ON TURKISH ANALYSIS OF IRAQ, TURKISH INTERESTS AND 
US POLICY.   END COMMENT. 
PEARSON