US embassy cable - 03ABUJA457

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000457 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, ASEC, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: POSSIBLE CONFLICT OVER BUHARI'S CAMPAIGN LAUNCHING 
 
 
REF: ABUJA 0448 
 
 
Classified by DCM T.D. Andrews.  Reasons 1.5 (B & D). 
 
 
1.  (C)  According to retired Air Vice Marshal Moukhtar 
Mohammed, one of the close advisers to ANPP Presidential 
Candidate Muhammadu Buhari, Buhari plans go ahead with the 
launching of his campaign in Port Harcourt on March 8.  The 
campaign team plans to travel to the area with the body of 
Marshall Harry, his murdered campaign coordinator for the 
south-south zone (Reftel).  The campaign also hopes to hold 
a special mass in Odi, the site of the 2001 massacre of 
civilians by Nigerian military forces, to commemorate 
Harry's life and to remember the victims of the attack on 
the village.  "It is tragic, and most of us are shaken up, 
but it is more important now than ever to advance Buhari's 
campaign," Moukhtar told Poloff. 
 
 
2.  (C)  According to a source in the Presidency, at least 
a thousand soldiers have been deployed to Port Harcourt to 
help stem any outbreak of violence there in the aftermath 
of Harry's death.  Additionally, he stated, Rivers State 
Governor Peter Odili has contacted the Presidency to urge 
Obasanjo to cancel Buhari's rally in the area due to 
"security concerns." 
 
 
3.  (C)  COMMENT:  Harry's death in close proximity to 
Buhari's official campaign starting could serve to inflame 
an already uneasy electorate.  From what it appears, the 
Buhari campaign will exploit Harry's exit for all it is 
worth.  They hope it will energize what has been a 
heretofore lackluster, informal campaign and also open a 
door for Buhari to appeal to voters in the important South- 
South region.  This weekend, there may be a potential 
confrontation over campaign rallies.  Buhari, with too much 
to gain from staging the rally, and Odili (and by 
extension, Obasanjo) with much to lose if the memory of 
Marshall Harry does not fade away quickly, could be headed 
for a showdown over the weekend.  If so, this will rachet 
up tensions significantly as Nigeria head into the last 
month before elections. 
JETER