US embassy cable - 03KATHMANDU427

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000427 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
LONDON FOR POL/REIDEL 
NSC FOR MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PTER, NP, IN, Maoist Insurgency, India Relations 
SUBJECT: NEPAL: INDIAN AMBASSADOR SAYS MAOISTS THREATENING 
TO END DIALOGUE 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 408 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michael Malinowski for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d 
) 
 
1. (S) Summary:  According to Shyam Saran, India's Ambassador 
to Nepal, continued disagreement on the terms of a code of 
conduct for the current cease-fire has led Maoists to 
threaten an end to preliminary talks about future peace 
negotiations with the GON.  At the heart of the disagreement 
is the Palace's refusal to accept the Maoist demand that 
government forces cease security operations.  In a March 7 
conversation with Ambassador Malinowski, Saran described the 
Maoists' ambiguous stance on the future of the constitutional 
monarchy.  Saran reported that his Embassy has told Maoist 
leaders that if they want a dialogue with Indian diplomats, 
they must cease all illegal activity within India's borders. 
End summary. 
 
2. (S) In a March 7 conversation with Ambassador Malinowski, 
Indian Ambassador Shyam Saran disclosed that in discussions 
with Indian Government (GOI) contacts the Maoists have 
threatened to break off talks with the GON because of 
disagreement on the cease-fire's proposed code of conduct. 
According to Saran, a draft code of conduct by the Maoists, 
vetted by the GON's advisory committee, contained a provision 
prohibiting search operations by the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) 
and police forces.  The provision was rejected by the Palace, 
with a handwritten note from King Gyanendra stating "this 
does not apply to the RNA." 
 
3. (S) Saran explained that the draft provision did not 
explicitly require that the security forces "return to their 
barracks," one of the Maoists' reported demands.  According 
to RNA Chief of General Staff Victory Rana, while the RNA is 
not currently conducting specific search and destroy 
missions, regular patrols continue.  If the patrols spot 
unlawful behavior, including the carrying of arms or wearing 
of Maoist uniforms, they intervene.  Comments by Brig. Gen. 
Gaurav Rana (reftel), commander of the 5th Brigade in the 
far-western region, corroborate this policy. 
 
4. (S) Ambassador Saran indicated that Indian diplomats in 
Nepal are not in direct contact with the Maoists, but that 
the GOI has opened other channels of communication with the 
insurgents.  It was through these channels that the Maoists 
had conveyed complaints about the late-February arrest of 
several cadre in Patna, Bihar.  The GOI had responded that 
"if you break the law in India you will get arrested," and 
told Maoist leaders that if the party wants a formal dialogue 
with India, they need to discontinue their activities south 
of the border. 
 
5. (S) Saran indicated that the Maoists are being 
intentionally ambiguous about their support for the 
constitutional monarchy.  When asked, a Maoist source 
reportedly replied that the insurgents "support multi-party 
democracy" but are "mum" on the question of the future of the 
constitutional monarchy.  When asked if remaining "mum" was 
an indication of support, the source refused to elaborate. 
On the issue of a constituent assembly, Saran said that 
Maoist sources have stated that their advocacy of such an 
assembly is "not written in stone."  The Indian Ambassador 
agreed with Post's assessment that, should the Maoists decide 
to abandon the peace talks, they would likely telegraph their 
intentions by instructing their agents first to begin citing 
incidents of alleged GON non-cooperation and publicizing 
complaints against the negotiating team. 
 
6. (S) Comment:  Disagreement over the code of conduct could 
presage a pattern familiar from the first round of talks: 
impose an impossible demand on the GON and break off 
negotiations when the government fails to meet it.  The King 
is highly unlikely to hobble the RNA as demanded, especially 
since the Maoists have not disarmed.  Rhetoric and complaints 
are likely to increase in the coming weeks, with the Maoists 
proclaiming their commitment to the talks and decrying the 
GON's purported failure to cooperate.  History need not 
repeat itself, however.  It is questionable whether the 
Maoists are prepared to resume hostilities, and the King has 
made it clear to us that he expects discussions with the 
Maoists to be protracted.  Under such circumstances, 
disagreements, posturing and threats are to be expected. 
MALINOWSKI