US embassy cable - 03RANGOON304

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000304 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, BM 
SUBJECT: BURMESE STRONGMAN ILL WITH CANCER 
 
Classified By: COM CARMEN MARTINEZ FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) A reliable source with very close personal ties to top 
military medical officers corroborated recent DAO Rangoon 
reports that Vice Senior General Maung Aye has been 
hospitalized.  Our source indicated, though, that Maung Aye 
had been diagnosed with advanced prostate cancer that is not 
treatable in Burma.  The source hypothesized that the SPDC 
Vice Chairman would soon be sent to Singapore for treatment. 
 
2. (C) Comment: The apparent serious illness of Maung Aye 
leads us to begin speculation on an SPDC without its current 
second-in-command.  The obvious choice of successor based on 
rank and seniority is General Khin Nyunt (now Secretary One). 
 However, according to one former army officer, it would be 
unprecedented for a military intelligence officer (who is 
also not a graduate of the Defense Service Academy) to take 
over as Deputy Commander-in-Chief.  The other major players 
in the SPDC now are reportedly too junior to be considered 
for the Deputy position.  Thus, the structure of a Burmese 
regime sans Maung Aye could look much different than it 
currently does.  We doubt, though, whether policy would 
change significantly.  End comment. 
Martinez