US embassy cable - 03AMMAN1336

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 001336 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, SOCI, JO 
SUBJECT: JORDAN SCHEDULES PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS FOR JUNE 
17 
 
Classified By: A/DCM DOUGLAS SILLIMAN, REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
 
 
1. (U) THE JORDANIAN GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ON FEBRUARY 27 THAT 
LOWER HOUSE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, POSTPONED THREE TIMES, 
WILL BE HELD ON JUNE 17.  THE GOVERNMENT FURTHER ANNOUNCED 
THAT MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED FOR JULY 5 
WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL JULY 26 TO ALLOW FOR A PRUDENT AMOUNT 
OF TIME BETWEEN THE TWO ELECTION DATES.  MOST POLITICAL 
PARTIES WELCOMED THE OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT AND VIEWED THE 
KING'S DECISION AS A VERY POSITIVE STEP. THE ISLAMIC ACTION 
FRONT (IAF), JORDAN'S LARGEST OPPOSITION PARTY, SUGGESTED 
THAT MERELY SETTING A DATE FOR ELECTIONS DID NOT GO FAR 
ENOUGH AND CALLED ON THE GOVERNMENT TO INTRODUCE AN ELECTIONS 
LAW GUARANTEEING EQUAL REPRESENTATION TO ALL SEGMENTS OF 
SOCIETY AND DECIDING WHO WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SUPERVISING 
THE ENTIRE ELECTORAL PROCESS.  WE BELIEVE THE KING WANTS TO 
MOVE AHEAD WITH ELECTIONS IN JUNE, UNLESS THERE IS SERIOUS 
INSTABILITY IN THE REGION. END SUMMARY 
 
------------------------ 
FOURTH TIME'S THE CHARM? 
------------------------ 
 
2. (U) THE KING DISSOLVED THE LOWER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT IN 
JUNE 2001. THE CONSTITUTION CALLS FOR NEW ELECTIONS WITHIN 
FOUR MONTHS AFTER THE DISSOLUTION OF THE PARLIAMENT UNLESS 
THERE ARE COMPELLING CIRCUMSTANCES DEEMED TO IMPEDE ON THE 
ELECTORAL PROCESS. THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ON THREE PREVIOUS 
OCCASIONS GENERAL TIME PERIODS FOR NEW ELECTIONS, YET NEVER 
SET SPECIFIC DATES TO HOLD THEM, AND EVENTUALLY POSTPONED 
THEM EACH TIME.  THUS FAR, MANY OF THE KINGDOM'S POLITICAL 
PARTIES HAVE REACTED POSITIVELY YET CAUTIOUSLY TO THE 
ANNOUNCEMENT.  MOST VIEW THE GOVERNMENT'S DECISION AS A VERY 
POSITIVE STEP, YET ARE SKEPTICAL THAT ELECTIONS WILL ACTUALLY 
TAKE PLACE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF HOSTILITIES IN IRAQ. 
 
----------------------- 
POLITICAL PARTIES REACT 
----------------------- 
 
3. (C) AMONG THE MOST VOCAL OF THE POLITICAL PARTIES REACTING 
TO THE GOVERNMENT'S ANNOUNCEMENT WAS THE IAF, THE POLITICAL 
ARM OF THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, WHICH BOYCOTTED THE 1997 
ELECTIONS.  IN A MARCH 2ND PRESS INTERVIEW, IAF SECRETARY 
GENERAL HAMZA MANSOUR STATED, "THERE ARE IMPORTANT ELEMENTS 
TO CONSIDER BEFORE SETTING A DATE, INCLUDING CHARTING A 
DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS LAW AND DECIDING WHO SHOULD SUPERVISE 
THE PROCESS."  THE IAF IS A STRONG OPPONENT OF THE "ONE MAN 
ONE VOTE" FORMULA OF THE CURRENT ELECTIONS LAW, FAVORING 
INSTEAD THE INTRODUCTION OF A PROPORTIONAL LIST THAT WOULD 
PROVIDE THE IAF--JORDAN'S ONLY ORGANIZED NATIONWIDE POLITICAL 
PARTY--WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF SUCCESS IN ELECTIONS 
(ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEPTEL).  MORE CENTRIST PARTIES, BY 
CONTRAST, ENTHUSIASTICALLY WELCOMED THE GOVERNMENT'S 
ANNOUNCEMENT AND URGED JORDANIANS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE 
UPCOMING DEMOCRATIC ELECTORAL PROCESS.  POST CONTACTS VIEWED 
THE DECISION AS POSITIVE FOR BOTH JORDAN AND FOR THE KING, 
BUT ALSO EXPRESSED SOME CONCERN THAT A WAR IN IRAQ COULD LEAD 
THE GOJ TO POSTPONE ELECTIONS AGAIN. 
 
4. (C) THE GOVERNMENT EXPRESSED AN INTEREST IN MEETING WITH 
POLITICAL PARTIES TO DISCUSS THEIR RESPECTIVE CONCERNS BUT 
INSISTS THAT THE CURRENT ELECTION FORMULA--ONE MAN-ONE VOTE 
IN SINGLE MEMBER CONSTITUENCIES--IS FAIR, EFFECTIVE, AND WILL 
NOT CHANGE.  THE IAF INDICATED THAT IT WILL SOON ANNOUNCE 
WHETHER IT INTENDS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE JUNE ELECTIONS OR 
BOYCOTT THEM FOR A SECOND TIME. 
 
-------- 
COMMENT 
-------- 
 
5. (C) OVERALL, THE KING'S DECISION TO SET AN ELECTION DATE 
IS A POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT SINCE MANY POST CONTACTS WERE 
PREDICTING A FOURTH POSTPONEMENT DUE TO THE FACT THAT  THE 
KING AND GOVERNMENT CHOSE TO HOLD THE ELECTIONS IN MID JUNE 
INDICATES THAT IT HAS FACTORED THE IRAQ WAR INTO ITS 
CALCULATIONS AND HOPES THAT BY THEN THE WAR WOULD BE OVER, 
TEMPERS WILL HAVE CALMED, AND THE ELECTIONS CAN PROCEED AS 
PLANNED.  WE BELIEVE THE KING WANTS TO MOVE AHEAD AS 
ANNOUNCED, AND WILL DO SO UNLESS THERE IS SERIOUS INSTABILITY 
IN THE REGION. 
 
6. (C) ALTHOUGH THE IAF HAS YET TO ANNOUNCE WHETHER THEY 
INTEND TO PARTICIPATE IN THE JUNE ELECTIONS, FEW EXPECT THEM 
TO ANNOUNCE A BOYCOTT AND RISK AGAIN BEING LEFT OUT OF THE 
POLITICAL PROCESS.  THE GOVERNMENT, ALTHOUGH AMENABLE TO 
LISTENING TO THEIR CONCERNS REGARDING THE ELECTIONS LAW, IS 
UNLIKELY TO ALTER THE STATUS QUO--WHICH EFFECTIVELY LIMITS 
THE IAF'S ABILITY TO WIN PARLIAMENTARY SEATS. 
GNEHM