US embassy cable - 03ANKARA1410

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001410 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: ERDOGAN AND AK LOOKING GOOD IN SIIRT 
 
(U) Classified by Acting Political Counselor Nicholas S. 
Kass. Reason: 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
 
1. (C) Contacts across the political spectrum indicate AK and 
its party leader Erdogan are  poised to win the March 9 
special election in Siirt province, paving the way Erdogan's 
entry into Parliament and eventual move to the Prime Ministry. 
 
 
-- AK M. P. Egemen Bagis told us March 4 that 16 AK deputies 
now in Siirt are lobbying hard on Erdogan's behalf and are 
confident the party will sweep Siirt's three seats in the 
legislature.  AK Vice Chairman Dengir Firat and M.P. Ihsan 
Arslan are among the high-profile figures representing 
Erdogan in Siirt. 
 
 
-- Meanwhile, opposition CHP deputies Bulent Tanla and Emin 
Koc tell us that their party is resigned to the possibility 
of an AK sweep, but they hold out hope that they could 
capture one seat.  CHP is maintaining its own 10-man team in 
the province, rotating fresh shifts on a daily basis. 
 
 
2. (C) According to pro-Kurdish HADEP Chairman Ahmet Turan 
Demir, AK's overwhelming advantage in financial resources 
guarantees that AK will win at least one seat.  Demir 
explained to us March 4 that during the run-up to the 
election, AK's campaign strategy has emphasized that: 1) 
electing the future P.M. is an honor; 2) the P.M. will bring 
tangible economic benefits to the province; and 3) Erdogan's 
wife is from Siirt. 
 
 
3. (C) Both CHP and HADEP officials separately denied to us 
rumors that they are cooperating against AK in Siirt. 
 
 
-- Our CHP contacts admit that they considered the idea 
briefly but abandoned it.  They say they want Erdogan to 
become P.M., so that he can assume more responsibility for 
AK's policies. 
 
 
-- Demir averred that HADEP voters are likely to stay home to 
protest what HADEP claims was AK's "illegal" petition to have 
the Nov. 3 election results in Siirt nullified, thereby 
setting up the March 9 denouement.  He charged that CHP is 
"far worse than AK" because it supports Turkish military 
repression in predominantly Kurdish Southeastern Turkey. 
PEARSON