US embassy cable - 93JAKARTA8764

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 008764 
 
 
STATE FOR S/P DIRECTOR LEWIS, EAP A/S LORD AND COUNSELOR WIRTH 
USIA FOR DIRECTOR DUFFEY 
OSD FOR USD/P WISNER 
 
E.O.  12356:  DECL:  OADR 
TAGS:  PREL, ID, MY 
SUBJECT:  SAM HUNTINGTON'S "CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS:"  APOCALYPSE 
WHEN? 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT 
 
2.  SUMMARY:  SAM HUNTINGTON'S THESIS ABOUT THE "COMING CLASH OF 
CIVILIZATIONS" HAS CAUGHT ON IN ASIA LIKE WILDFIRE.  DEALING WITH 
THE ISSUE IS AS GREAT A CHALLENGE FOR POLICY AND PUBLIC DIPLOMACY 
AS ANY IN THE POST COLD WAR ERA. WE NEED TO MOUNT A MAJOR EFFORT 
TO MEET THE CHALLENGE. END SUMMARY. 
 
3.  SAM HUNTINGTON'S GHOST LURKED IN EVERY SHADOWY CORNER AT THE 
AUGUST 8-10 INDONESIA FORUM CONFERENCE ON ASIA-PACIFIC AND THE 
NEW WORLD ORDER.  AUSTRALIA'S FOREIGN MINISTER GARETH EVANS 
PUBLICLY DEBUNKED HUNTINGTON'S "KULTURKAMPF" HYPOTHESES BUT 
PRIVATELY CONFESSED THAT THEY WERE BECOMING AN IMPORTANT OBSTACLE 
TO KEATING'S POLICY OF INTEGRATION WITH ASIA.  INDONESIAN 
SPEAKERS WARNED THAT THE RISE OF RELIGIOUS AND CULTURAL TENSIONS 
WOULD TURN THEIR FRAGILE COUNTRY INTO THE NEXT YUGOSLAVIA. 
MALAYSIAN FINANCE MINISTER ANWAR IBRAHIM, HIS HAIR ON FIRE, USED 
HIS KEYNOTE SPEECH TO ASSERT THAT THE HUNTINGTON "DOCTRINE" 
REPRESENTED THE PREDOMINANT VIEW OF WESTERN INTELLECTUALS AND THE 
CENTRAL CORE OF U.S. POLICY.  HIS DIATRIBE GENERATED SPONTANEOUS 
APPLAUSE FROM INDONESIAN INTELLECTUALS, WHO SHEEPISHLY APOLOGIZED 
LATER. 
 
4.  THE "CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS" HAS MORE APPEAL THAN PREVIOUS 
'BIG BANG' THEORIES SUCH AS "THE END OF HISTORY" OR "THE DECLINE 
OF THE WEST" BECAUSE IT FITS BETTER INTO SOUND BITES OR BUMPER 
STICKERS, AND BECAUSE IT POSITS AN OVERARCHING CONFLICT AROUND 
WHICH THE "BRAVE NEW WORLD" WILL BE RESTRUCTURED. IT ALSO COMES 
ALONG AT A TIME WHEN PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN 
COMMUNISM TO FEAR.  WHILE HUNTINGTON HIMSELF PRESENTS HIS IDEAS 
AS NOTHING MORE THAN A SERIES OF WORST-CASE HYPOTHESES, THE 
DANGER IS THAT THE PROPHECY WILL BECOME SELF-FULFILLING AS MORE 
PEOPLE BELIEVE IT AND ACT ON IT.  THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN 
THE ISLAMIC WORLD, WHERE ANTI-WESTERN PARANOIA IS ALREADY AT A 
HIGH PITCH. DEALING WITH THIS ISSUE THUS CAN BECOME A CHALLENGE 
FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY - AND THE POLICIES UNDERPINNING IT - AS 
SERIOUS AS DEALING WITH THE COLD WAR CONCEPT OF PEACEFUL 
COEXISTENCE (OR, WHAT'S MINE IS MINE AND YOURS IS NEGOTIABLE). 
 
5.  WE NEED A UNIFYING COUNTER-THEME AROUND WHICH WE CAN BUILD 
OUR RESPONSE.  GARETH EVANS HAS CHOSEN "COMMUNITY AND 
CONVERGENCE," WHICH IS NOT BAD AS A GOAL BUT SOUNDS TOO MUCH LIKE 
THE TRIUMPH OF HOPE OVER REALITY.  "GLOBAL INTEGRATION WITH 
RESPECT FOR DIVERSITY" REQUIRES A LARGE BUMPER STICKER, BUT IS 
MORE PRESCRIPTIVE. E PLURIBUS UNUM DOES WELL AMONG LATIN 
SPEAKERS HERE, AS A FORERUNNER OF THE INDONESIAN NATIONAL MOTTO 
"UNITY IN DIVERSITY". 
 
6.  WHATEVER THE SLOGAN, WE THINK A MAJOR CAMPAIGN IS CALLED FOR 
TO COUNTER HUNTINGTONISM.  ED DJEREDJIAN'S 1992 MERIDIAN HOUSE 
SPEECH PROVIDES USEFUL AMMUNITION, BUT IT NEEDS UPDATING AND 
INCREASED EMPHASIS ON WHAT WE ARE FOR RATHER THAN WHAT WE ARE 
AGAINST. ALSO,AS WE ARE LEARNING, THE PROBLEM EXTENDS WELL BEYOND 
THE MIDDLE EAST.  IN INDONESIA ALONE THERE ARE FAULT LINES 
BETWEEN HINDUS, CHRISTIANS, MUSLIMS, SECULARISTS AND 
FUNDAMENTALISTS, NOT TO MENTION BETWEEN EAST AND WEST. WE WILL 
CERTAINLY CARRY THE ISSUE TO THE INDONESIAN MEDIA, BUT WE NEED 
MORE MATERIAL - STATEMENTS BY SENIOR OFFICIALS, WORLDNETS, VOA 
SPECIALS, AMPARTS - FULL SCALE EFFORTS WHICH USIA KNOWS HOW TO 
ORCHESTRATE SO WELL. 
 
7.  IN POLICY TERMS, OUR NEW FOCUS ON GLOBAL ISSUES MAY PROVIDE 
THE BEST SUBSTANTIVE FRAMEWORK FOR EMPHASIZING WHAT WE ARE FOR. 
OUR AGENDA OF NON-PROLIFERATION, COUNTER-TERRORISM, ARMS CONTROL, 
ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, OPEN TRADING SYSTEMS, HUMAN RIGHTS AND 
POPULATION CONTROL CUTS ACROSS THE "VELVET CURTAIN" OF 
CIVILIZATION AND CULTURES.  WE NEED TO CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE OUR 
ABILITY TO BUILD BROAD ISSUE-BASED COALITIONS IN INTERNATIONAL 
FORUMS RANGING FROM THE UNGA TO THE TROPICAL TIMBER 
ORGANIZATION.. 
 
8. SOMETIMES WE WILL NEED TO BUILD BRIDGES TO KEEP CHASMS FROM 
DEVELOPING ALONG HUNTINGTON'S FAULT LINES. FOR EXAMPLE WE MAY ALL 
WONDER ABOUT THE RELEVANCE OF THE NAM IN A MULTI-POLAR WORLD. BUT 
THE MOVEMENT EXISTS, AND IF WE WANT TO AVOID A RETURN TO THE 
RHETORICAL NORTH-SOUTH WARFARE OF THE 1970'S, WE CANNOT AFFORD TO 
TURN OUR BACKS ON THE CURRENT MODERATE LEADERSHIP. WE SHOULD 
ENCOURAGE A NORTH-SOUTH DIALOG AND DEAL WITH ISSUES OF LEGITIMATE 
CONCERN TO THE DEVELOPING WORLD, AS PRESIDENT CLINTON DID IN HIS 
TOKYO BILATERAL WITH SOEHARTO IN JULY. OTHERWISE LEADERSHIP WILL 
GRAVITATE TO THE LIKES OF MALAYSIA'S MAHATIR, WHO WILL USE THE 
FORUM TO DIVIDE RATHER THAN TO UNIFY. 
 
9. WE ALSO NEED TO BE CAREFUL NOT TO LET CHASMS DEVELOP OVER 
HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUES. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT HUMAN RIGHTS SHOULD 
BE LESS CENTRAL TO OUR POLICY, OR THAT WE SHOULD NOT PUSH THESE 
ISSUES VIGOROUSLY IN OUR BILATERAL DIALOGS. BUT WE NEED TO PAY 
CAREFUL ATTENTION TO OTHER ASPECTS OF OUR RELATIONS WITH 
COUNTRIES LIKE INDONESIA AND AVOID INDISCRIMINATE PUNITIVE 
MEASURES WHICH WILL REDUCE OUR LEVERAGE ON HUMAN RIGHTS WHILE 
ADDING FUEL TO THE KULTURKAMPF THEORIES. 
 
10. BECAUSE OF THE SPOTLIGHT ON THE MIDDLE EAST AND BOSNIA, THE 
ISSUE OF "THE WEST VERSUS ISLAM" HAS PARTICULAR RESONANCE NOW. 
FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF JAKARTA, WE NEED TO DO A BETTER JOB OF 
EXPLAINING OUR ACTIONS, WHETHER THEY BE AIR STRIKES AGAINST IRAQI 
RADAR SITES,RETALIATORY ATTACKS ON AIDID'S THUGS, OR OUR ACTIONS 
TO HALT SERB AND CROAT ATROCITIES IN THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA. WE 
ARE DOOMED TO PLAY CATCH UP ON THESE ISSUES GIVEN THE IMPACT OF 
INSTANT TV COVERAGE AND THE NEED FOR OPERATIONAL SECURITY, BUT WE 
THINK WE COULD DO BETTER AT EXPLAINING OUR ACTIONS TO FOREIGN 
AUDIENCES. 
 
11. WE ALSO NEED TO ORIENT SOME OF OUR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY AWAY FROM 
A FOCUS ON CRISES SO THAT WE CAN PAY MORE ATTENTION TO OUR 
POSITIVE AGENDA OF THINGS WE AGREE ABOUT. FOR EXAMPLE, TO COUNTER 
THE "WE VERSUS THEY" MENTALITY, WE SHOULD MAKE MORE OF AN EFFORT 
TO DESCRIBE OUR INTERACTION WITH THE OIC, OUR COOPERATIVE 
PROGRAMS WITH MUSLIM STATES, AND THE WAY IN WHICH MUSLIMS ARE 
INTEGRATED INTO AMERICAN SOCIETY. 
 
12. THESE CONSIDERATIONS HAVE NO DOUBT ALREADY OCCURED TO POLICY 
MAKERS IN WASHINGTON, BUT THE NEED FOR CONCERTED ACTION SEEMS 
PARTICULARLY URGENT FROM OUR PERSPECTIVE HERE. 
 
 
BARRY