US embassy cable - 03ANKARA1391

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001391 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NOFORN 
 
 
DEPT. FOR P, EUR, EUR/SE, NEA AND NEA/NGA; 
NSC FOR AMB. KHALILZAD; 
OSD FOR LUTI 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2013 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, MOPS, PREF, PHUM, TU, IZ, UNSC, Iraq 
SUBJECT: NORTHERN IRAQ: KDP AND PUK TO UNIFY 
ADMINISTRATIONS AND PESHMERGA,  TURKMEN PARTICIPATE IN 
IRBIL PROTEST, PUK COMPLAINS OF ITF INCITEMENT 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 1374 
     B. ANKARA 1360 
 
 
Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch.  Reasons 1.5 b and d. 
 
 
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Summary 
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1. (S/NF) Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) Ankara rep 
Bahros Galali called on Operation Northern Watch POLAD March 
3 to inform that after the Iraqi opposition conference in 
Salahadeen, PUK leader Jalal Talabani and Kurdistan 
Democratic Party (KDP) leader Masoud Barzani met and agreed 
to unify the KDP and PUK administrations and peshmerga 
forces.  They have not announced this to the media and fear 
that Turkey could take news of this move as a pretext for an 
attack by claiming this was a move toward statehood.  If 
asked, the KDP and PUK plan to say this is in fulfilment of 
the Washington Agreement.  Galali said that if the KDP 
decided to fight the Turks, the PUK would be stuck fighting 
alongside the KDP.  Galali told us that at least six Iraqi 
Turkmen parties (including non-KDP affiliates) participated 
in the Ref B demonstration in Irbil, holding banners in 
Turkish and chanting in Turkish "We oppose Turkish military 
intervention."  Galali heard ITF reps on Turkish TV March 3 
stating the ITF had left the Iraqi opposition and claiming 
Amb. Khalilzad had promised the ITF leaders that if the ITF 
were not included in the opposition leadership council within 
ten days, the US would reject the opposition leadership 
council.  The PUK also alleges that KDP "PM" Nechirvan 
Barzani informed Saddam of US plans and sought Baghdad's help 
against the Turks should Turkey intervene.  End Summary. 
 
 
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KDP and PUK to Unify Admins, Peshmerga 
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2. (S/NF) PUK Ankara rep Galali asked to see ONW POLAD March 
3.  Galali said that after last week's opposition meeting in 
Salahadeen, northern Iraq, Barzani and Talabani along with 
several of their respective politburo members (NFI) had met 
and agreed to unify their administrations and peshmerga 
forces as quickly as possible.  The KDP and PUK are working 
on the mechanics of the unification, but have made no 
announcements about it.  While they saw this as critical to 
strengthening the Kurdish position in the end game before 
regime change, they also realized that the Turks could claim 
this was a step toward Kurdish statehood and use it as a 
pretext to intervene.  The KDP and PUK have not informed the 
Turks or the media of the decision.  If they are asked about 
it, they plan to say that it is in fulfilment of the 
Washington Agreement's provisions for reconciliation. 
 
 
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Turkmen Demonstrate AGAINST Turkish Intervention 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
 
3. (S) Galali expressed concern regarding the burning of 
Turkish flags at Ref B anti-Turkey demonstration in Irbil 
March 3.  He told us he had given a statement to Turkish TV 
that had been carried several times already in which he said 
that like Turkey, the KDP and the PUK allowed people to 
demonstrate, including against the leaders, but that the PUK 
did not support the burning of any flags.  Galali said that 
the demonstration had been organized by students and 
intellectuals and that KDP and PUK supporters took part, 
although no leadership figures from either side did.  He told 
us Talabani had urged Barzani to avoid provocations to 
Turkey, but that the burning of one Turkish flag and the 
shredding of another had provoked the Turks.  In an 
interesting twist, Galali reported that Turkmen from six 
political parties, including Turkmen not affiliated with the 
KDP, participated in the demonstration, chanting in Turkish 
and carrying banners in Turkish that read "We oppose Turkish 
military intervention," and "We don't need Turkey in our 
country." 
 
 
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Northern Iraqis Incited by GOT Remarks 
-------------------------------------- 
 
 
4. (S/NF) Galali continued, saying that the demonstration 
indicated that the people of northern Iraq were now "really 
afraid" of a Turkish intervention.  "If they want to stop 
refugees, why do they not stay on their border, or within a 
few km of it?  But the Foreign Minister (Yakis) tells the 
press repeatedly they will send 80,000 soldiers and take away 
the guns from the Kurds.  Erdogan told CNN Turk that if the 
US sends 40,000 troops, Turkey will send 80,000, and if the 
US sends 80,000, Turkey will send 160,000.  This is a big 
mistake, and is making Barzani intransigent and emotional." 
Galali said the northern Iraqis were now sure that Turkey 
wanted to send its army to Irbil and Chamchamal, disarm the 
peshmerga and prevent displaced Kurds from returning home. 
He added that no Iraqi Kurd would relinquish his gun to a 
Turkish soldier and that a Turkish intervention was a recipe 
for chaos.  How, he asked, could Turkey be unwilling to allow 
Kurds who had been evicted from their homes in Kirkuk or 
Mosul to return, even if they went unarmed?  "Iraq," he said, 
exasperated, "is not Turkey and is not a Turkish country." 
 
 
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ITF Claims All Northern Iraq is Turkmen Land 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
 
5. (S/NF) Galali was upset about interviews with ITF reps 
that have aired in the past few days on Turkish television. 
In one, the ITF claimed that the Iraqi Kurds were 
distributing fake ID's to Kurds showing them to be displaced 
from Kirkuk so that the Kurds could take over that city. 
Galali said that Hasan Osman, Kemal Baytli, Sa'adun Koproglu 
and Sanan Aga (via telephone from Irbil) had given interviews 
to NTV (Turkish TV news) March 3, in which they said nothing 
about Saddam Hussein, but did claim that Irbil is a Turkish 
city that Barzani had taken from the Turkmen; showed what 
Galali described as a "shocking" map identifying everything 
in northern Iraq from Diyala to Zahko as Turkmen territory; 
and claimed there were at least 3.5 million Turkmen in Iraq. 
Galali contested those numbers strongly and posited that the 
Turks were trying to use the ITF to provoke the Kurds and 
create a pretext for Turkish intervention. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
ITF: US Promised To Reject Opposition Leadership 
Unless ITF Gets Spot in Leadership Council 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
 
6. (S/NF) Galali told us that the ITF reps claimed in the NTV 
interview that the ITF had dropped out of the Iraqi 
opposition following the Salahadeen conferece, but that Amb. 
Khalilzad had promised ITF leaders that if the ITF was not 
included in the opposition's leadership council within ten 
days, the US would reject the leadership council.  Galali 
said that when Hasan Osman was asked if the ITF supported the 
US plan for Iraq, Osman said flatly, "No.  We do not." 
Galali shared with us a conversation PUK peshmerga hero and 
former "PM" Khosrat Rasul Ali had with ITF Chairman Sanan Aga 
on the margins of the Salahadeen conference.  According to 
Galali, Khosrat asked Aga why he had changed so much from 
being a friend of the Kurds to being so strongly opposed to 
them.  Aga replied "What I have said isn't half of what 
Ankara told me to say."  In Galali's view, the Turks have 
chosen the wrong surrogates in northern Iraq.  There are 
Turkmen there that everyone can work with, he told us, but 
Sanan Aga was with Saddam until four years ago and is not 
anti-Saddam today. 
 
 
7. (S/NF) Galali described the situation in northern Iraq as 
"very bad" for the KDP and the PUK.  Talabani, he said, wants 
to work with the Turks so that the US plan will succeed, but 
Barzani is defiant and playing the role of defender of the 
Kurds against the Turks.  "If Barzani decides to fight the 
Turks, we will be stuck alongside him." 
-------------------------------------------- 
PUK Says Nechirvan Went to Saddam w/US Plans 
Seeking Help vs. Turkey 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
 
8. (S/NF) Finally, Galali said the PUK had information that 
after Amb. Khalilzad's early Feb. visit to Ankara, Nechirvan 
Barzani had contacted Saddam, briefed him on US plans as 
presented by Khalilzad, and asked for Saddam's support 
against Turkey should Turkey intervene in northern Iraq. 
Galali said that Barzani knew that the KDP could not hope to 
fend off the Turks by themselves and did not believe the US 
would do so for them.  Comment:  We have no way of knowing if 
Barzani actually contacted Baghdad or, if so, what was said. 
We note that Galali views Nechirvan with contempt and that 
the PUK keeps Barzani's 1996 decision to seek Saddam's 
assistance squarely in mind.  However, the scenario is 
plausible.  End comment. 
PEARSON