US embassy cable - 03ANKARA1364

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001364 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: NOTIONAL CALENDAR FOR ERDOGAN'S ASSUMPTION 
OF THE PRIME MINISTRY 
 
 
 (U) Classified by Acting Political Counselor Nicholas S. 
Kass.  Reason 1.5(b)(d) 
 
 
1. (U) AK leader Erdogan is a candidate for Parliament in the 
special March 9 election in Siirt province.  Assuming he wins 
a seat in the legislature, the election will serve as a 
prelude to his eventually assuming the role of prime minister. 
 
 
2. (U) The following notional calendar represents our 
understanding of the procedural steps, reflecting Turkish law 
and custom, that are involved.  The timeline below is also 
notional, reflecting the earliest possible date on which 
Erdogan could take office as P.M., that is, mid-March. 
Notably, Erdogan over the March 1-2 weekend signaled publicly 
that he would not/not seek to take over in the immediate 
future. 
 
 
-- March 9: Election in Siirt.  Erdogan wins a seat; 
 
 
-- March 10-12: Erdogan receives document of registration 
(mazbata) declaring his status as an elected M.P.; 
 
 
-- March 11-13: Erdogan sworn in at Parliament, formally 
assumes his duties as M.P; 
 
 
-- March 13-14: Resignation of P.M. Gul accepted by President 
Sezer, who then designates Erdogan to form a (59th) 
government; 
 
 
-- March 14-15: If President Sezer immediately gives the 
mandate to Erdogan to form a government, the cabinet list 
will likely be presented to the Presidency within two days. 
 
 
---------------- 
Sezer's Calendar 
---------------- 
 
 
3. (U) There is no constitutionally defined timetable under 
which the president would make decisions regarding the 
inauguration of a next (Erdogan-led) government, but the 
process will likely run as follows: 
 
 
-- President approves the new cabinet list and sends it to 
Parliament.  From that moment on, Erdogan would be regarded 
officially as prime minister; 
 
 
-- The cabinet list is formally read to Parliament; 
 
 
-- Within one week, the P.M. reads the new government's 
program; 
 
 
-- Vote of confidence debates in Parliament will begin two 
(full) days after the reading of the program; 
 
 
-- Vote of confidence held one (full) day after the debate 
closes. 
 
 
--------------------------- 
Comment: Possible Surprises 
--------------------------- 
 
 
4. (C) Sezer is a staunch Kemalist with a heightened, 
Javert-like sense of legalistic propriety.  He could 
introduce unexpected elements into the government formation 
process -- partly, we expect, to signal to Erdogan that the 
President and other organs of the State will be watching the 
government very closely.  Moreover, while by tradition the 
president gives the mandate to form a government to the 
leader of the party with the most seats in Parliament, he is 
not legally obliged to do so.  The president's traditional 
obligation here is simply to give the mandate to someone who 
could win a vote of confidence in the legislature. 
PEARSON