US embassy cable - 03HARARE450

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000450 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR CNEARY 
NAIROBI FOR TPFLAUMER 
BANGKOK FOR WDAYTON 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, ECON, ZI, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: SIMBA MAKONI ON PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION 
 
REF: A) HARARE 409 B) HARARE 433 C) HARARE 347 
 
Classified By: political section chief Matt Harrington.  Reasons: 1.5 ( 
B) and (D). 
 
Summary 
-------- 
 
1.  (C)  Former Finance Minister Simba Makoni said the 
recently-announced modest fuel hike and announcement of an 
export support mechanism were supported by every ZANU-PF 
politburo member except Information Minister Jonathan Moyo, 
but the measures were unlikely to have much of an effect on 
Zimbabwe's imploding economy.  Makoni acknowledged ongoing 
discussions within the ruling party about presidential 
succession, but said these were unlikely to lead anywhere 
until President Mugabe endorses them.  Asked whether it was 
possible to forestall financial sanctions with a bilateral 
dialogue, the Ambassador emphasized that ZANU-PF would have 
to be prepared to address all issues of mutual concern, 
including the legitimacy of the current Zimbabwean 
government.  Since his dismissal as Finance Minister in 2002, 
a growing number of ruling party insiders are convinced that 
Makoni is the only individual capable of resolving Zimbabwe's 
political and economic crises and ensuring ZANU-PF's 
continued hold on power.  End Summary. 
 
Recent economic measures 
------------------------ 
 
2.  (C)  On February 27, the Ambassador and polchief met with 
former Finance Minister -- and serving member of the ZANU-PF 
Politburo -- Simba Makoni in the business office he runs with 
his wife.  Asked about the significance of recent economic 
steps announced by the GOZ -- including the modest fuel price 
hike and a new export support mechanism -- Makoni said the 
increasing desperation of Zimbabwe's economic decline had 
finally forced the Government's hand.  These steps were long 
overdue but nothing new -- he had pressed for them while at 
Finance.  Interestingly, he said virtually everyone in the 
Politburo supported them this time, including previously 
vociferous opponents such as Minister for Agriculture Joseph 
Made.  The lone holdout, according to Makoni, had been chief 
ZANU-PF propagandist Jonathan Moyo, but he had been 
overruled.  Makoni feared that the recent steps were too 
little too late and would have little impact on this 
country's economic implosion.  The doubling of fuel prices, 
for instance, would have little effect on fuel availability 
-- it would simply reduce the GOZ's subsidy obligation by a 
small percentage. 
 
Succession 
---------- 
 
3.  (C) Makoni acknowledged that there are ongoing discreet 
discussions among senior ZANU-PF insiders about presidential 
succession, which seem to have more urgency than similar 
conversations in the past.  This issue, however, remains very 
much on the "side table" and those pushing it most actively 
do not appear prepared yet to place it on the "main table." 
Makoni dismissed recent speculation that some moderate ruling 
party figures might form a third political party.  Most of 
his ruling party colleagues, he claimed, accept the need for 
a "broader political consensus." Makoni insisted, however, 
that "with all due respect to the courage and conviction of 
our MDC counterparts," political change in Zimbabwe would 
emerge from within ZANU-PF.  That may be the case, the 
Ambassador commented, but the longer the country's crises are 
allowed to go on, the more likely it will be that Zimbabweans 
simply will want ZANU-PF to go.  Makoni concurred with that 
assessment.  The Ambassasor noted the slew of press reports 
that two primary factions have formed within ZANU:  one led 
by Speaker of Parliament Emmerson Mnangagwa, who is clearly 
working to position himself as Mugabe's successor, and the 
other one comprising those who oppose Mnangagwa but who 
appear not to have settled on a single candidate.  Makoni 
nodded but offered no comment. 
 
4.  (C) According to Makoni, President Mugabe is ensuring 
that, on succession, he can "have his cake and eat it, too." 
Although the Zimbabwean president regularly insists that the 
party must choose his successor, there is limited precedent 
for this in ZANU-PF's history.  In the late 70's, when 
Ndabaningi Sithole left the presidency of ZANU-PF, a small 
group of party insiders met under a tree in Mozambique and 
chose Mugabe as the successor, a decision that was 
subsequently rubber-stamped by a party congress.  The lesson, 
Makoni said, is that the party will not make active plans for 
succession until Mugabe gives the go-ahead, a step he has not 
yet taken.  Makoni said the ruling party's old guard actually 
comprises a very small group:  Mugabe, Vice-Presidents 
Muzenda and Msika, party chairman John Nkomo, Minister of 
Defense Sydney Sekeramayi, politburo member and former 
defense forces chief Solomon Mujuru, and Minister of Rural 
Resources Joyce Mujuru.  Makoni described the latter four as 
open-minded individuals who realize the depth of Zimbabwe's 
crises and the need to address them.  It is really the first 
three, he said -- Mugabe, Muzenda, and Msika -- who form the 
"crust keeping the rest of us down and that we need to break 
through." 
 
U.S.-Zimbabwe relations 
----------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Raising recent press reports of looming U.S. 
financial sanctions on Zimbabwean leaders, Makoni asked 
whether it was possible to forestall such a move by having "a 
quiet conversation with us."  The Ambassador replied that he 
is always willing to talk to anyone but cautioned that, for 
any discussions to lead to improved bilateral relations 
between the United States and Zimbabwe, there has to be a 
willingness within ZANU to address all issues of mutual 
concern, including the legitimacy of the Zimbabwean 
government.  Makoni took the point but cautioned, without 
elaboration, that progress was likelier if less contentious 
issues were addressed first. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  (C) Among his senior ZANU-PF colleagues, Makoni is a 
breath of fresh air.  He never feeds us his party's tired 
rhetoric, but freely acknowledges the depth of the crises 
facing Zimbabwe and has good ideas about how to resolve them. 
 As Finance Minister, his public candor about Zimbabwe's 
challenges and the required solutions earned him a dismissal 
from Cabinet and lingering distrust from party hardliners. 
Since his departure from Government last fall, however, 
Makoni has begun to gain popularity with many ZANU stalwarts 
who see him as their only hope of maintaining the ruling 
party's hold on power.  Even his public comments of last week 
published in the independent "Daily News" that ZANU-PF must 
talk to the MDC to resolve the country's crisis were 
ground-breaking.  While acknowledging that succession is the 
informal topic du jour among ZANU-PF insiders, Makoni 
adroitly avoided addressing his own role in such discussions. 
 He seemed much more relaxed than the last time we saw him; 
life in the private sector, where he and his wife run a 
lingerie manufacturing/retail business, clearly agrees with 
him. 
SULLIVAN