US embassy cable - 03ABUJA420

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000420 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, PINR, PHUM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP FEBRUARY 28 
 
Ref: a) Abuja 404 
 b) Abuja 291 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reason: 1.5 
(b)and(d). 
 
 
1. (U) This periodic joint political report from Abuja and 
Lagos includes: 
--Political Violence Update 
--Potential Party Coalition 
--Will AD Support Obasanjo? 
--ID Card Registration 
--Sharia Amputation in Jigawa 
--Traditional Ruler to be Prosecuted 
 
 
------------------------- 
Political Violence Update 
------------------------- 
 
 
2. (SBU) The convention honeymoon, a period of time with 
little to no violence, is over.  An upswing in violence 
throughout the country is now reaching levels we had 
anticipated earlier.  Ref A details much of the last three 
weeks of violence in Kwara State.  In addition, there are 
reports of as many as 45 persons killed and scores of homes 
destroyed in Warri in Delta State in two separate waves of 
violence two weeks apart.  In Benue at least 7 persons were 
killed in ANPP-PDP clashes that started on February 18, 
apparently related to local government elections.  Sporadic 
violence, including the burning of homes and offices, 
continued for 4 days.  Seven people not indigenous to the 
area, an ex-LGA chairman, and two chairmanship candidates 
were arrested. 
 
 
3. (SBU) In Owerri, Imo State, Theodore Emeka Agwatu, 
Governor Udenwa's Principal Secretary, was murdered on 
February 23.  His death follows that of ANPP senatorial 
candidate Ogbonnaya Chijioke Uche, who died February 10 from 
gunshot wounds received three days before.  Motives for 
Agwatu's death remain unclear.  Uche's death is "being 
investigated" by the police, who privately blame it on an 
internal ANPP feud.  Police deny initial press reports that 
the case was being treated as an armed robbery gone bad, 
although they have not ruled out that possibility. ANPP has 
publicly offered 2 million naira for information on the 
culprit; the police have a similar reward of 100,000 naira. 
Uche defected from the PDP in 2002 and was the immediate 
past Commissioner for Lands, Survey, and Urban Planning in 
Udenwa's government.  His wife and brother reportedly were 
"shot at but not hit" the day after Uche was attacked. 
 
 
4.  (C) COMMENT: Not all this violence is directly tied to 
elections and electoral politics.  The fighting in Warri has 
more to do with a struggle between two local power brokers. 
END COMMENT. 
 
 
------------------------- 
POTENTIAL PARTY COALITION 
------------------------- 
 
 
5. (SBU) There have been at least two other meetings between 
representatives of the majority of new parties since Ref B, 
but with no resolution.  Dr. Alex Ekwueme, the defeated PDP 
candidate and one of the only people most feel would have a 
chance against Obasanjo, has not indicated that he is 
willing to leave the PDP.  Ekwueme continues to fight the 
PDP's nomination of Obasanjo in court, even though his 
original suit was thrown out on a technicality.  Chief Gani 
Fawehinmi, candidate for the PRP, has been talking to the 
press about the possibility of his taking on the role of 
coalition candidate, but up to the meeting held on February 
27 there has been no public backing of his candidature by 
the other parties.  Gani's best chance to get the nod is 
that, after Alex Ekwueme, he has the highest name 
recognition value countrywide of any possible coalition 
candidates. 
 
 
------------------------- 
WILL AD SUPPORT OBASANJO? 
------------------------- 
 
 
6. (C) As noted in Ref B, in the end, the AD will likely 
support Obasanjo.  Numerous "secret" meetings have been held 
between Obasanjo's camp and that of various factions within 
the AD.  Some factions within the party are still holding 
out against the alliance and have railed against the party 
leadership for not choosing their own candidate before the 
INEC presidential deadline February 21.  The decision is 
dragging out and any indication from the PDP that they will 
contest against incumbent AD governors could limit the level 
of support the AD party structure is able to offer to 
Obasanjo. 
 
 
-------------------- 
ID Card Registration 
-------------------- 
 
 
7. (C) The National ID Card registration period has started, 
with many of the same problems seen during the voter 
registration process.  After the scheduled two weeks, a 
reported 24 million people have been registered, and the 
program has already been extended for an additional two 
weeks.  The process has been marred by numerous stumbling 
blocks: limitations on the computerized photograph storage 
to 500 pictures at a time, accusations of bribery and the 
selling of cards, and strikes by registration workers over 
lack of pay, to name a few.  In addition, there have been 
problems in some Muslim communities with women not willing 
to remove facial coverings for pictures, and a mistaken 
belief that the traditional henna painting of fingertips 
precludes taking thumbprints.  A suit has been filed over 
the process, which is registering only citizens over the age 
of 18 rather than 10 years and up as required by the 
implementing legislation. 
 
 
8.  (C) COMMENT: The National ID Card is unlikely to provide 
results any more accurate or reliable than the discredited 
voter registration process a few months ago.  Besides people 
being turned away from registration for not knowing their 
blood type or having fingers roughened from labor in the 
fields or even having an anglicized surname, there seems to 
be some public resistance to the program that will likely 
skew results further.  That said, it has taken more than 20 
years and hundreds of millions of dollars to begin this 
National I.D. Card program, which seems to be broadly 
accepted throughout Nigeria, even in the North which has 
traditionally viewed this exercise as a way of undercounting 
Northern Nigerians and thereby diminishing their influence 
and resource entitlement in Nigeria. 
END COMMENT. 
 
 
--------------------------- 
Sharia Amputation in Jigawa 
--------------------------- 
 
 
9. (U) International, but not local, press have reported a 
man in Jigawa State being sentenced by a Sharia court to a 
cross amputation (right hand and left leg) for stealing. 
Haruna Mohammed, a 35-year-old man, was convicted of 
stealing 86,000 naira (USD 630) February 20 and was given 30 
days to appeal the sentence.  His lawyers appealed the 
following day.  We have not been able to independently 
confirm this sentence. 
 
 
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Traditional Ruler to be Prosecuted 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
10. (SBU) In a follow-up to an event reported in the Human 
Rights Report for the last two years, the Kaduna State 
Government has filed charges against a traditional ruler and 
6 others for actions during the riots in Kaduna in October 
2001.  Alhaji Ahmadu Mohammed Yakubu, the Sarkin Numana, 
will be tried on a count of "inciting disturbance," while 
the others are being indicted on heavier counts of criminal 
conspiracy, unlawful assembly, and rioting. 
JETER