US embassy cable - 03HARARE434

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000434 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
USAID/W FOR DCHA/OFDA FOR HAJJAR, KHANDAGLE AND MARX, 
DCHA/FFP FOR LANDIS, BRAUSE, SKORIC AND PETERSEN, 
AFR/SA FOR POE AND COPSON, AFR/SD FOR ISALROW AND WHELAN 
PRETORIA FOR FFP DISKIN AND OFDA BRYAN 
NAIROBI FOR DCHA/OFDA/ARO FOR RILEY, MYER AND SMITH, 
REDSO/ESA/FFP FOR SENYKORR 
ROME PLEASE PASS TO FODAG 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR, EAID, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FOOD SECURITY SINCE NOVEMBER 
 
 Summary 
------- 
1.  A monthly monitoring report issued by the National NGO 
Food Security Network (FOSENET) suggests little improvement 
in the food security situation across the country since 
November, due to absolute scarcity of food.  The food 
security situation is poised to improve among eligible WFP 
beneficiaries in February since food aid deliveries have 
improved and all implementing partners are operational. 
Transportation problems and a thriving black market in corn 
meal will ensure that other groups not eligible for 
international food aid will go hungry.  End summary. 
 
Little Improvement in Food Situation 
------------------------------------ 
 
2.  A monthly monitoring report issued by the National NGO 
Food Security Network (FOSENET) suggests little improvement 
in the food security situation across the country due to 
absolute scarcity of food--this in spite of increased levels 
of WFP and other international food aid.  The report also 
suggests increasing levels of politicization of Grain 
Marketing Board (GMB) and commercial food and profiteering in 
food distribution and access.  Absolute scarcity surpassed 
cost and selective bias in access as major impediments to 
food security.  FOSENET is a network of 24 Zimbabwean NGOs, 
organized in March 2002 to monitor food needs, availability, 
and access through NGOs based within districts, and through 
community based monitors. 
 
3.  This was FOSENET,s fifth report.  It is based upon 133 
reports from 43 of Zimbabwe's 57 districts covering the 
period December 2002 through January 2003.  The report covers 
fewer districts than the November version, making comparisons 
difficult.  NGO and community monitoring were combined in 
this round, which led to more than one report being received 
from more than 60 percent of districts. 
 
4.  Overall conclusions from the report are as follows: 
 
--Food security worsened in 27 districts, or 63 percent of 
responding districts, in December and January.  In November, 
75 percent of reporting districts reported increased food 
insecurity when compared to October levels.  Only Nyanga in 
Manicaland reported increased supplies, while in nearby 
Mutare rural people were reported to be moving away from 
their homes because of hunger. 
 
--Vulnerability dropped slightly from November with the share 
of districts reporting everyone in need of food decreasing 
from 51 percent in November to 47 percent in December/January. 
 
--Close to half of all districts (49 percent) reported 
falling, erratic GMB supplies.  In November, two-thirds of 
respondents reported falling GMB supplies.  In spite of this 
seeming improvement in GMB supplies, the average volume of 
deliveries per ward declined to 1.8 tons from 3.4 tons in 
November and 9.3 tons in October.  Matabeleland North and 
South and Mashonaland West have consistently reported one or 
more districts with no GMB deliveries over the last six 
months.  Hurungwe in Mashonaland West and Lupane in 
Matabeleland North have reported wards that have not received 
GMB deliveries since October and July, respectively.  Buhera 
in Manicaland and Tsholotsho in Matabeleland North, with 
several months of no delivery in November, did not report 
this round. 
 
--Political barriers and procedural bias continued to be 
obstacles to accessing GMB grain.  These barriers increased 
from 38 percent of districts in November to 62 percent in 
December/January.  The major barrier to food access was the 
requirement to produce a ZANU-PF party card.  To get a letter 
from the councilor or headman to certify residence, potential 
beneficiaries had to demonstrate ruling party membership or 
participation in ruling party activities. 
 
--The cost of GMB sales was a barrier to access in 10 percent 
of districts, less than the 22 percent in November and 38 
percent in October.  The upper price range for a 10-kg bag of 
corn meal was Z$260, 124 percent above the controlled price. 
 
--Reduced supply and political barriers were major reported 
obstacles to commercially supplied food.  Political 
interference in commercial sales, in particular the youth 
militia and police controlling food queues or claiming 
preferential access, increased since the November report. 
This is most likely due to the increased scarcity of food. 
 
--The upper price range for a 10-kg bag of corn meal on the 
informal market was Z$3000 in December/January, almost 25 
times the controlled price.  The price differential between 
the official GMB price for a 10-kg bag of corn meal and the 
informal market price has widened from Z$490 in July 2002 to 
Z$2800 in January.  Even though the value of the Zimbabwe 
dollar has fallen over the last seven months, this represents 
a significant cost escalation for poor people whose incomes 
have not kept pace with inflation. 
 
--The report indicated mixed results in terms of relief 
supplies.  Six district sites reported an increase in relief 
supplies, ten reported no change in supply, two (Zvimba and 
Chivi) reported a fall, and at least eight (Hwedza, Seke, 
Murewa, Goromonzi, Chikomba, Chinhoyi, Hurungwe, and Makonde) 
reported no supplies at all.  The primary barriers to relief 
aid were procedural and related to households not qualifying 
for inclusion on beneficiary lists.  At least three districts 
reported incidents of political bias or interference: Gutu in 
Masvingo, Gweru in Midlands, and Makoni in Manicaland. 
 
Relief Food on Pace 
------------------- 
 
5.  World Food Program more than doubled its deliveries in 
January from December and is poised to distribute close to 
its target of 53,562 tons in February.  This would see an 
increase in beneficiaries from 2.2 million in December to 4.3 
in February.  WFP anticipates all 48 WFP-designated districts 
will receive food assistance during February so the next 
FOSENET report should indicate either no change or an 
increase in relief food aid.  The remaining nine rural 
districts will be covered through other pipelines, including 
the USG's C-SAFE program that covers seven districts. 
 
Transportation Woes Besiege Government Deliveries 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
6.  Deliveries of GMB supplies of corn meal are unlikely to 
improve in the near term because of transportation 
bottlenecks.  The state-sponsored newspaper, The Herald, 
reported that the GMB was having problems bringing in 
shipments from seaports, Beira and Maputo in Mozambique and 
East London in South Africa.  The GMB has blamed neighboring 
country rail networks, port facilities, the port operators 
demanding foreign currency for the transportation 
bottlenecks, and inadequacy and unreliability of the National 
Railways of Zimbabwe.  More recently, the GOZ has indicated 
its inability to compete with foreign exchange prices paid by 
WFP and other international importers for limited available 
transport services. 
 
7.  NGOs continue to insist that the current fuel shortage 
has not and will not have an effect on food distributions. 
This is counterintuitive, particularly since most 
international donors contract independent truckers, who do 
not have consistent access to fuel, to transport food. Of 
greater concern to the NGOs is the shortage of spare parts. 
 
Political Bias in Food Access 
----------------------------- 
 
8.  Since the last FOSENET report in November, both the 
independent and state-owned press have reported more 
incidents of political party members denying GMB food to 
select groups of people and of people profiteering. 
 
--In Gweru, the Daily News reported the arrest and detention 
of a city councilor after he failed to account for the 
presence of 30 bags of corn meal in his home.  (NOTE: 
Councilors nationwide have been given full responsibility to 
collect meal from millers for distribution. END NOTE.) 
--In Mutare, the Daily News reported an investigation of the 
deputy mayor and a councilor (both ZANU-PF) for allegedly 
distributing corn meal in a non-transparent way and along 
political lines.  The Mutare mayor, who is a relatively 
independent ZANU-PF figure, is leading the investigation. 
 
--In Mashava, the Daily News reported that ZANU-PF supporters 
blocked food aid from going into town because they believe 
the councilor for the district, who is a member of MDC, is 
excluding ZANU-PF supporters. 
--In Masvingo, a former ZANU-PF MP for Harare South was 
arrested for having five metric tons of corn believed to have 
come from the GMB under dubious circumstances. 
 
--In Gutu, The Herald reported Deputy Minister of Youth 
Development, Gender, and Employment creation, Shuvai Mahofa 
was fined for overcharging (by Z$2800) on corn in one of her 
shops.  Police are also investigating 10 metric tons of corn 
found at a mill she owns. Earlier in the month, the manager 
of the Gutu GMB was charged with corruptly selling corn to 
one of Mahofa,s mills. 
 
Comment 
------- 
8.  At first glance, the smaller proportion of districts 
reporting a deteriorating level of food security and no 
deliveries of GMB food might lead one to believe that the 
situation had improved significantly since November. 
However, a meaningful comparison between this report and the 
last one is difficult since this one queried ten fewer 
districts than the previous one.  These ten districts could 
change the overall conclusion of the report.  The seemingly 
improved GMB coverage is also misleading in that it does not 
factor in the decreased volume and frequency of deliveries. 
Nonetheless, the food security situation should improve over 
the next few months mainly because of increased food relief 
supplies from international donors.  Unfortunately, this will 
only benefit those sufficiently destitute to make it onto the 
beneficiary rolls.  Logistical constraints and political bias 
in distribution will limit food access of the remaining 
people.  Too, the increased opportunities for profiteering on 
the parallel market will continue to reduce available GMB 
supplies.  End Comment. 
SULLIVAN