US embassy cable - 93RANGOON1836

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 01836 
 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/TB, INR/B, AND INM/AMB BORG 
CINCPAC ALSO FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, MARR, BM 
SUBJECT: BURMA'S GENERALS PROMOTE THEMSELVES 
 
REF:  (A) FBIS BKK 291251Z MAR 93, 
-     (B) FBIS BKK 291253Z MAR 93, 
-     (C) FBIS BKK 270923Z MAR 93 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  BURMA'S RULING STATE LAW AND ORDER 
RESTORATION COUNCIL (SLORC) PROMOTED MORE THAN A DOZEN 
TOP GENERALS IN CONNECTION WITH THE MARCH 27 ARMED 
FORCES DAY CELEBRATION.  A MODEST RESTRUCTURING OF THE 
MILITARY HIERARCHY IS ALSO IN THE WORKS, WITH EASTERN 
REGIONAL COMMANDER MAUNG AYE SLATED TO FILL THE 
JUNTA'S NOMINAL NUMBER TWO POSITION.  INTELLIGENCE 
CHIEF KHIN NYUNT WILL GET A SOMEWHAT FANCIER TITLE AND 
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CALL MOST OF THE SHOTS.  IN 
OTHER ARMED FORCES DAY DEVELOPMENTS, THOUGH CHIEF OF 
STATE THAN SHWE'S SPEECH WAS LESS STRIDENT THAN 
SIMILAR MESSAGES BY HIS PREDECESSOR, IT GAVE NO HINT 
OF COMPROMISE ON THE MILITARY'S DEMAND FOR A LEADING 
ROLE IN BURMA'S FUTURE POLITICAL SYSTEM.  IN KEEPING 
WITH HIS DISAPPEARANCE FROM PUBLIC VIEW SINCE BEING 
REPLACED LAST YEAR, FORMER SLORC CHAIRMAN SAW MAUNG'S 
HISTORICAL ROLE HAS BEEN REDUCED FROM THE MAN WHO 
"SAVED BURMA" TO THAT OF A NON-PERSON.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U)  CAREFUL OBSERVERS OF THE BURMESE OFFICIAL 
MEDIA LEARNED THIS WEEK THAT A NUMBER OF TOP MILITARY 
OFFICERS WERE PROMOTED ON THE MARCH 27 ARMED FORCES 
DAY HOLIDAY (REFS A AND B).  NONE OF THE CHANGES WAS 
SPECIFICALLY ANNOUNCED, BUT REPORTS ON THE ARMED 
FORCES DAY CEREMONIES INCLUDE NEW TITLES WHICH CONFIRM 
THAT AT LEAST TWELVE MAJOR GENERALS WERE ELEVATED TO 
THE THREE-STAR LIEUTENANT GENERAL RANK.  AMONG THOSE 
PROMOTED WERE THE FOLLOWING SEVEN SLORC MEMBERS, ALL 
OF WHOM HAD BEEN TRANSFERRED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL 
MONTHS FROM POSITIONS AS REGIONAL MILITARY COMMANDERS 
TO TOP JOBS IN GOVERNMENT MINISTRIES: 
 
-- MINISTER FOR DEVELOPMENT OF BORDER AREAS AND 
NATIONAL RACES MAUNG THINT (FORMERLY NORTHEAST 
REGIONAL COMMANDER); 
 
-- MINISTER OF LABOR AYE THOUNG (FORMERLY SOUTHERN 
COMMANDER) ; 
 
-- MINISTER OF MINES KYAW MIN (NORTHWESTERN COMMAND); 
 
-- MINISTER OF HOTELS AND TOURISM KYAW BA (NORTHERN 
COMMAND) ; 
 
-- MINISTER OF TRADE TUN KYI (CENTRAL COMMAND); 
 
-- MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE AND DEFENSE SERVICES 
ADJUTANT GENERAL MYINT AUNG (SOUTHEASTERN COMMAND); 
AND 
 
-- MINISTER OF HOME AFFAIRS MYA THINN (WESTERN 
COMMAND) . 
 
RELIGIOUS AFFAIRS MINISTER MYO NYUNT WAS ALSO PROMOTED 
FROM MAJOR GENERAL TO LIEUTENANT GENERAL, THOUGH HE 
RETAINS HIS POST AS RANGOON REGIONAL COMMANDER FOR THE 
TIME BEING. 
 
3. (C) FOUR OTHER MAJOR GENERALS WERE PROMOTED TO 
LIEUTENANT GENERAL AND WILL SOON BE GIVEN NEW POSTS, 
ACCORDING TO MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SOURCES: 
 
-- EASTERN REGIONAL COMMANDER MAUNG AYE WILL BECOME 
THE NOMINAL "NUMBER TWO" IN THE MILITARY HIERARCHY, 
FILLING A VACANCY THAT HAS EXISTED SINCE GENERAL THAN 
SHWE REPLACED SENIOR GENERAL SAW MAUNG AS SLORC 
CHAIRMAN AND DEFENSE SERVICES COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF 
ALMOST A YEAR AGO.  MOST SOURCES BELIEVE THAT MAUNG 
AYE WILL SOON BECOME DEPUTY CINC OF THE DEFENSE 
SERVICES (TATMADAW) BUT REMAIN UNCERTAIN WHETHER HE 
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE VACANT ARMY CINC AND/OR SLORC 
DEPUTY CHAIRMANSHIP POSITIONS.  THAN SHWE HAD OCCUPIED 
THESE POSTS CONCURRENTLY WITH THE NUMBER TWO 
"TATMADAW" SLOT. 
 
-- POWERFUL MILITARY INTELLIGENCE CHIEF KHIN NYUNT 
WILL REPORTEDLY MOVE INTO A NEWLY CREATED THREE-STAR 
POSITION AS DIRECTOR OF "STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE" 
(SOURCES ARE UNSURE OF THE PRECISE TITLE) WHILE 
RETAINING HIS POSITION AS SLORC SECRETARY-1.  HE MAY 
GIVE UP THE FORMAL DESIGNATION AS DIRECTOR OF DEFENSE 
SERVICES INTELLIGENCE (DDSI) BUT HIS NEW, BROADER 
DUTIES WILL INCLUDE OVERSIGHT OF DDSI AS WELL AS ALL 
OTHER MILITARY AND CIVILIAN INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES. 
 
-- TIN 00 WILL KEEP HIS JOB AS SLORC SECRETARY-2 WHILE 
MOVING FROM ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF TO HEAD ONE OF THE 
MILITARY'S TWO BUREAUX OF SPECIAL OPERATIONS (BSO-I). 
HE REPLACES LIEUTENANT GENERAL AND MINISTER OF 
INDUSTRY-1 SEIN AUNG IN THIS POSITION, RESPONSIBLE FOR 
COORDINATING ALL MILITARY OPERATIONS IN UPPER BURMA. 
 
-- MILITARY APPOINTMENTS SECRETARY MAUNG HLA WILL 
REPLACE LIEUTENANT GENERAL AND FORESTRY MINISTER CHIT 
SWE AS HEAD OF THE OTHER SPECIAL OPERATIONS BUREAU 
(BSO-II), RESPONSIBLE FOR LOWER BURMA MILITARY ACTIONS. 
 
4. (LOU)  CHIEF OF STATE THAN SHWE DELIVERED THE 
TRADITIONAL ARMED FORCES DAY ADDRESS FOCUSING ON THE 
TATMADAW'S HISTORY IN THE STRUGGLES AGAINST 
IMPERIALISM, FASCISM, AND INTERNAL INSURGENCY (REF C). 
THE SPEECH WAS LESS HARD-LINE THAN THOSE GIVEN BY SAW 
MAUNG ON THIS OCCASION IN RECENT YEARS, OMITTING 
HOSTILE REFERENCES TO THE BRITISH AND JAPANESE WHICH 
HAD RILED THOSE NATIONS' DEFENSE ATTACHES.  THAN SHWE 
SHOWED NO SIGN OF COMPROMISING ON DOMESTIC POLITICAL 
ISSUES, HOWEVER:  WHILE HE REPEATED THE MILITARY'S 
STANDARD PROMISE TO TRANSFER POWER AS SOON AS 
POSSIBLE, HE INSISTED THAT THE TATMADAW MUST PLAY A 
LEADING ROLE IN BURMA'S FUTURE POLITICAL SYSTEM. 
 
5. (LOU)  ALSO IN CONNECTION WITH ARMED FORCES DAY, 
THE GOB PUBLISHED SPECIAL NEWSPAPER SUPPLEMENTS AND 
ORGANIZED AN EXHIBIT ON THE HISTORY OF THE TATMADAW 
AND ITS LEADING PERSONALITIES.  SEVERAL OBSERVERS 
NOTED THE STARK CONTRAST WITH THE TENOR OF LAST YEAR'S 
COMMEMORATION, WHICH FEATURED GUSHING TRIBUTES TO THE 
MILITARY CAREER OF SLORC CHAIRMAN SAW MAUNG.  THIS 
YEAR THERE WERE NOTABLE GAPS WHERE THERE HAD ONCE BEEN 
REFERENCES TO THE EX-CHIEF OF STATE.  WHILE FORMER 
DICTATOR NE WIN STILL FIGURES PROMINENTLY IN THE 
TATMADAW'S HISTORY, SAW MAUNG -- THE MAN WHO ONCE 
CLAIMED HE HAD "SAVED BURMA" -- HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A 
NON-PERSON. 
 
6. (C)  COMMENT:  THIS YEAR'S ARMED FORCES DAY 
PROMOTIONS APPEAR TO SIGNAL STABILITY RATHER THAN 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITHIN BURMA'S RULING CIRCLE. 
SEVERAL OF THE RECENTLY APPOINTED GOVERNMENT MINISTERS 
-- SUCH AS TUN KYI, KYAW BA, AND KYAW MIN -- WERE 
PROBABLY GIVEN THEIR THIRD STARS AS BELATED PAY-OFFS 
FOR THEIR EARLIER AGREEMENT (UNDER PRESSURE) TO GIVE 
UP LUCRATIVE POSITIONS AS REGIONAL COMMANDERS. 
PROMOTING VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE SLORC'S MAJOR GENERALS 
ALSO EASED THE WAY FOR KHIN NYUNT'S OWN ELEVATION TO 
LIEUTENANT GENERAL:  ELEVATING THE RELATIVELY JUNIOR 
INTELLIGENCE CHIEF MIGHT OTHERWISE HAVE ALIENATED 
THOSE WITH GREATER MILITARY SENIORITY.  WHILE WE 
ASSUME HE WILL SHOW DUE RESPECT FOR THE COMMANDING 
ROLES OF THAN SHWE AND NOW MAUNG AYE, WE WOULD STILL 
EXPECT KHIN NYUNT TO CALL THE SHOTS ON MOST DOMESTIC 
AND FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES.  WHATEVER HIS NEW FORMAL 
TITLE, THIS WILL BE LESS IMPORTANT THAN THE ROLE HE 
FIRMLY OCCUPIES AS POLITICAL STRATEGIST AND 
DECISION-MAKER ON ALL IMPORTANT ISSUES. 
 
JAMESON