US embassy cable - 03KINSHASA477

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000477 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2008 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CG 
SUBJECT: NEW BREED OF HARDLINERS INFLUENCES KABILA 
 
REF: A. 2/25 E-MAIL HOOKS-BELLAMY/EASTHAM/AMADEO 
     B. KINSHASA 172 
     C. KINSHASA 447 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF EDWARD BESTIC FOR REASONS 1.5 B AND D 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  IN RECENT WEEKS GDRC PRESIDENT JOSEPH KABILA 
HAS APPROVED SEVERAL ACTIONS WHICH ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF A 
SLOW-BUILDING EVOLUTION TOWARDS HARDLINE POLICIES.  "HAWKISH" 
ADVISERS SUCH AS AUGUSTIN KATUMBA, SAMBA KAPUTO AND EVARISTE 
BOSHAB HAVE GAINED THE ASCENDANCY OVER MORE "MODERATE" 
FIGURES SUCH AS VITAL KAMERHE, ANDRE KAPANGA AND THEOPHILE 
MBEMBA.  KABILA HIMSELF IS NOT AN INNOCENT VICTIM IN THIS 
STORY.  HE HAS NOW SURROUNDED HIMSELF WITH A NEW BREED OF 
HARDLINERS--NOT HIS FATHER'S CRONIES, BUT A YOUNGER, MORE 
SOPHISTICATED GROUP OF HAWKS.  IN THE PAST, KABILA APPEARED 
TO SHOW GREATER APPRECIATION FOR THE LONGER-TERM CONSEQUENCES 
OF HIS CHOICES, IN PARTICULAR THE REACTION OF THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.  THESE DAYS, HE IS TAKING HIS 
ADVISERS' ADVICE SEEMINGLY WITH LESS REGARD FOR THEIR BROADER 
IMPACT, AND APPEARS TO BE MOTIVATED BY A DESIRE TO STAY IN 
POWER.  END SUMMARY. 
 
INCREASING HARDLINE TENDENCIES 
------------------------------ 
2. (C) OVER THE PAST YEAR, THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNS THAT KABILA 
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FAVORING THE VIEWS SHARED BY THE 
"HAWKS" AROUND HIM.  IN THE PAST FEW MONTHS ALONE, THE GDRC 
HAS TAKEN SEVERAL ACTIONS IN LINE WITH THIS MODE OF THINKING. 
 EXAMPLES INCLUDE THE ATTEMPT TO EXPEL CONGOLESE LIBERATION 
MOVEMENT (MLC) REPRESENTATIVES FROM KINSHASA IN JANUARY (REF 
B), THE FIRING OF THE FINANCE MINISTER MATANGULU IN FEBRUARY 
(REF C), AND, SINCE LATE 2002, THE DEPLOYMENT OF REGULAR GDRC 
TROOPS TO THE BENI-BUTEMBO REGION--PUTTING THEM BEYOND THE 
LUSAKA CEASEFIRE LINES. 
 
3. (C) IN GENERAL, HARDLINERS TEND TO ESPOUSE THE BELIEF THAT 
TIME IS ON KINSHASA'S SIDE IN THE REUNIFICATION PROCESS, THAT 
THE OPPOSING BELLIGERENTS CAN BE OUTMANEUVERED, OUTLASTED, 
AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY DEFEATED MILITARILY.  INTERNATIONAL 
PRESSURE CAN BE FENDED OFF BY SIGNING AGREEMENTS IN SUN CITY 
AND PRETORIA, BUT ENOUGH OUTSTANDING DISPUTES (SUCH AS OVER 
SECURITY) REMAIN THAT KINSHASA CAN MANIPULATE WITHOUT 
APPEARING TO BE THE HOLDOUT.  IN KEEPING WITH LONGTIME 
CONGOLESE POLITICAL NORMS AND PRACTICES, THESE ADVISERS ARE 
DOUBTLESS MOTIVATED IN NO SMALL PART BY A DESIRE TO KEEP 
THEIR JOBS AND THEIR ACCESS TO WEALTH AND POWER.  DESPITE 
NATIONALIST RHETORIC--MODERATES ARE DENOUNCED AS 
"TRAITORS"--SOME MAY IN FACT PREFER TO RULE UNCHALLENGED IN 
PART OF THE COUNTRY RATHER THAN SHARE POWER WITH OTHERS IN A 
NEW NATIONAL GOVERNMENT. 
 
WHO HAS KABILA'S EAR? 
--------------------- 
4. (C) OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS, KABILA HAS REPLACED A GREAT 
MANY OF THE "OLD GUARD" OF ADVISORS AND MINISTERS APPOINTED 
BY HIS FATHER.  ONCE-POWERFUL INDIVIDUALS SUCH AS MWENZE 
KONGOLO, GAETAN KAKUDJI AND ABDOULAYE YERODIA HAVE LARGELY 
BEEN SIDELINED.  (YERODIA OCCASIONALLY RESURFACES TO SUPPORT 
THE GOVERNMENT IN HIS BAS-CONGO HOME REGION, AND HAS RECENTLY 
BEEN RUMORED--VERY SPECULATIVELY--AS A POSSIBLE GDRC VICE 
PRESIDENT.) 
 
5. (C) AMONG THE NEWER BREED, THE MOST INFLUENTIAL "HAWKS" 
APPEAR TO BE ON KABILA'S OWN PERSONAL STAFF: CABINET DIRECTOR 
EVARISTE BOSHAB, DEPUTY CABINET DIRECTOR SAMBA KAPUTO, AND 
PIERRE LUMBI, DIRECTOR OF STRATEGIC STUDIES.  PRESIDENTIAL 
SPOKESMAN MULEGWA ZIHINDULA, IN A 23 FEB. PRIVATE MEETING 
WITH THE AMBASSADOR, LEVELED CHARGES OF CORRUPTION AT ALL 
THREE OF THESE INDIVIDUALS. 
 
--BOSHAB IS FROM KASAI, A LAW PROFESSOR BY TRAINING AND 
BACKGROUND, WHO HAD BEEN DEPUTY CABINET DIRECTOR UNTIL THE 
OCTOBER 2002 SHUFFLE. 
 
--KAPUTO, WHO IS PERHAPS MORE INFLUENTIAL THAN BOSHAB ON 
POLICY MATTERS, WAS BORN IN KATANGA BUT RAISED IN THE KIVUS, 
AND IS A POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR BY TRAINING.  GOVERNOR 
OF BANDUNDU AND ORIENTALE PROVINCES IN THE MOBUTU ERA, HE WAS 
VITAL KAMERHE'S DEPUTY AT THE GREAT LAKES PEACE COMMISSION 
UNTIL OCTOBER 2002, WHEN HE WAS TAKEN ON BOARD IN HIS CURRENT 
CAPACITY.  HE IS CONSIDERED THE PROTEGE OF AUGUSTIN KATUMBA. 
 
--LUMBI, FROM MANIEMA, WAS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISER PRIOR TO 
OCTOBER 2002.  AN EARLY CIVIL SOCIETY LEADER (HE FOUNDED A 
SELF-HELP NGO IN 1978 WHEN SUCH ORGANIZATIONS WERE STILL 
TECHNICALLY ILLEGAL), HE BECAME ETIENNE TSHISEKEDI'S FOREIGN 
MINISTER IN 1992-3 AND THEN POST & COMMUNICATIONS MINISTER IN 
THE KENGO WA DONDO GOVERNMENT. 
 
6. (C) PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THESE FORMAL ADVISERS IS 
AUGUSTIN KATUMBA, WHO WAS MINISTER OF THE PRESIDENCY UNTIL HE 
WAS SUSPENDED IN OCTOBER 2002 (FOLLOWING THE RELEASE OF THE 
UN PANEL REPORT ON PLUNDERING THE DRC'S RESOURCES).  KATUMBA, 
LONG CONSIDERED KABILA'S RIGHT-HAND MAN, HAS BEEN ACTIVELY 
INVOLVED IN ALL INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE NEGOTIATIONS SINCE 
SUN CITY.  THIS HAS ENABLED HIM TO TRANSLATE THE HARDLINE 
VIEW INTO THE GDRC'S NEGOTIATING POSITIONS AT THE VARIOUS 
ROUNDS OF TALKS.  CURRENT RUMOR HAS IT THAT HE MAY REPLACE 
JEAN MBUYU AS KABILA'S SPECIAL SECURITY ADVISOR AND CHIEF OF 
THE COMMITTEE FOR STATE SECURITY. 
 
7. (C) REGARDING MILITARY MATTERS, HERETOFORE KABILA HAS 
LISTENED TO ARMED FORCES CHIEF OF STAFF, LIEUTENANT GENERAL 
LIWANGA MATA, AN EX-FAZ OFFICER.  HOWEVER, HE ALSO LISTENS TO 
ARMY COMMANDER GENERAL FRANCOIS OLENGA AND AIR FORCE 
COMMANDER GENERAL JOHN NUMBI.  OLENGA AND NUMBI ARE SIMILAR 
IN THAT THEY ARE BOTH POLITICAL APPOINTEES WITH NO 
PROFESSIONAL MILITARY BACKGROUND, HAVE VIOLENT STREAKS, AND 
ARE REPUTED TO BE CORRUPT.  THE TWO ARE RIVALS, EACH VYING 
FOR THE OPPORTUNITY TO TRAVEL ABROAD ON ARMS-BUYING TRIPS, 
WHICH ENABLES THEM TO SKIM OFF A PERCENTAGE OF ANY SALES 
TRANSACTION.  THEY STAND TO LOSE SUCH OPPORTUNITIES AND 
PERHAPS EVEN THEIR JOBS IF THE VARIOUS BELLIGERENTS' ARMIES 
ARE MERGED. 
 
8. (C) IN TERMS OF FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC POLICY, AS NOTED 
EARLIER THE FIRING OF FINANCE MINISTER MATANGULU SENT 
SHUDDERS THROUGH THE DONOR COMMUNITY.  UNTIL RECENTLY, 
MATANGULU HAD SUFFICIENT INFLUENCE OVER KABILA THAT ENABLED 
THE FORMER TO "HOLD THE LINE" ON PUBLIC EXPENDITURES.  HIS 
OUSTER--OVER THE ISSUE OF MAINTAINING FISCAL DISCIPLINE--HAS 
RAISED SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT THE GDRC'S INTENT TO ADHERE TO 
IFI-APPROVED ECONOMIC POLICIES.  IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THERE 
IS ANYONE LEFT AMONG KABILA'S CLOSE ADVISERS WHO IS PREPARED 
TO CARRY ON MATANGULU'S ROLE AND PROVIDE SOUND, IF UNPOPULAR, 
ADVICE ON ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MATTERS.  JEAN-CLAUDE 
MASANGU AS CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR IS STILL MAINTAINING A 
STABLE MONETARY POLICY, HOWEVER THERE HAVE BEEN FREQUENT 
RUMORS THAT HE HIMSELF IS LESS THAN SQUEAKY CLEAN. 
 
 
MODERATES, TAKING A BACK SEAT 
----------------------------- 
9. (C) THOSE WHO PUBLICLY EXPRESS A MORE "MODERATE" VIEW 
APPEAR TO HAVE WANING INFLUENCE.  SUCH FIGURES INCLUDE: 
 
--THEOPHILE MBEMBA, CABINET DIRECTOR UNTIL OCTOBER 2002, 
SINCE THEN INTERIOR MINISTER, LED THE GDRC DELEGATION AT THE 
PRETORIA NEGOTIATIONS IN DECEMBER, BUT HAS NOT PLAYED A 
VISIBLE ROLE IN THESE NEGOTIATIONS SINCE. 
 
--ANDRE KAPANGA, FORMERLY LAURENT KABILA'S PERMREP AT THE UN 
IN NEW YORK, CURRENTLY KABILA'S POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC 
ADVISER, HAS NOT TAKEN CHARGE OF HIS NEW BRIEF AND ALREADY 
HAS BEEN MARGINALIZED;  HE WAS ILL-INFORMED ABOUT KEY 
DECISIONS SUCH AS THE ABORTIVE MLC EXPULSION ORDER. 
 
--VITAL KAMERHE, LONGTIME CHIEF NEGOTIATORS IN THE INTERNAL 
AND EXTERNAL PEACE PROCESSES, NOW PLAYS SECOND FIDDLE TO 
SAMBA KAPUTO IN THESE TALKS. 
 
--MULEGWA ZIHINDULA, PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESMAN SINCE OCTOBER 
2002, CLAIMS TO BE EAGER TO SEE REFORM BUT HAS NOT 
DEMONSTRATED SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON KABILA'S DECISIONS. 
 
--LEONARD SHE OKITUNDU, FOREIGN MINISTER SINCE LAURENT 
KABILA'S TIME, CURRENTLY HAS VIRTUALLY NO SAY IN IMPORTANT 
MATTERS.  HIS STAFF HAS COMPLAINED TO EMBOFFS SEVERAL TIMES 
IN RECENT MONTHS ABOUT BEING MARGINALIZED. 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
10. (C)  OVER THE PAST YEAR, THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW BUT 
SIGNIFICANT EVOLUTION TOWARDS HARDLINE POLICIES ON THE PART 
OF THE GDRC.  KABILA HIMSELF IS NOT AN INNOCENT VICTIM IN 
THIS STORY, HAVING APPOINTED THE VERY ADVISORS TO WHOM HE IS 
CURRENTLY LISTENING.  HE HAS NOW SURROUNDED HIMSELF WITH A 
NEW BREED OF HARDLINERS--NOT HIS FATHER'S CRONIES, BUT A 
YOUNGER, MORE SOPHISTICATED GROUP OF HAWKS.  IN THE PAST, 
KABILA APPEARED TO SHOW GREATER APPRECIATION FOR THE 
LONGER-TERM CONSEQUENCES OF HIS CHOICES, IN PARTICULAR THE 
REACTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.  THESE DAYS, HE IS 
TAKING HIS ADVISERS' ADVICE SEEMINGLY WITH LESS REGARD FOR 
THEIR BROADER IMPACT, AND APPEARS TO BE MOTIVATED BY A DESIRE 
TO STAY IN POWER. END COMMENT. 
 
 
HOOKS