US embassy cable - 03AMMAN1191

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 001191 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, SOCI, JO 
SUBJECT: QUOTA GUARANTEES WOMEN SIX SEATS IN PARLIAMENT 
 
 
Classified By: EDWARD W. GNEHM FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (U) A royal decree issued on February 19 formalized a 
quota system that guarantees six seats for women in the next 
Parliament.  End Summary. 
 
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NEW QUOTA GUARANTEES FEMALE PARLIAMENTARIANS 
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2. (U) The GOJ amended the election law on February 19 to 
include a new quota that guarantees six seats for women in 
the next Parliamentary elections.  The six seats will be 
added to the current 104 seats, bringing the total number of 
seats available in the next Parliamentary elections to 110. 
The next elections are expected to be held sometime this 
summer. 
 
3. (U) The quota seats will be distributed nationally to the 
six candidates who receive the highest percentage of votes in 
their respective districts.  (For example, if a woman 
candidate in Kerak wins 2.5 percent of the vote in that 
district, she would place ahead of a woman candidate in Amman 
who won 2.3 percent of her district's vote.)  If a woman 
candidate wins the most votes in her district, she wins the 
seat outright and it is not counted against the quota.  As in 
the past, eligible women will be able to run for the 
Circassian and Christian quota seats as well. 
 
4. (C) The quota has inspired a flurry of pre-election 
activity in women's groups.  Over fifty female candidates 
have expressed an interest in running as candidates in the 
next elections.  However, several contacts predict the number 
will decrease when candidates have to pay the 500 JD (roughly 
$700) campaign fee. 
 
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SOME WOMEN EXPECT IAF AND GOVERNORATES TO BENEFIT 
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5. (C) Poloff recently discussed the quota issue with several 
prominent women who represent the socially active liberal 
elite, two of whom will likely be running in the next 
election.  All opined that if the IAF decides to participate 
in the next election, "they will win all six quota seats." 
Salwa Nasser-Mahmoud, the NGO coordinator for the Jordanian 
National Commission for Women, said the IAF was "too 
well-organized, too well-funded" to be defeated.  (Salwa 
commented that campaign expenses can run up to $40,000 with 
candidates absorbing much of the costs.)  Contacts feared 
that the IAF would not represent the needs of liberal women 
if it won the quota seats.  One contact told Poloff, "if the 
IAF wins the quota seats, it would erase all of our gains." 
 
6. (C) The "one man, one vote" electoral system also poses 
challenges for the candidates.  Few women will have the name 
recognition or tribal support to lure voters away from 
established candidates who have the endorsement of tribal 
leaders.  Contacts cited voter apathy as another hurdle. 
"Some view election day as a vacation day--they go out to 
picnic or go to Petra, instead of to the polls."  Voter 
apathy also favors the IAF candidates, whose supporters tend 
to vote in higher percentages. 
 
7. (C) Most contacts agreed that the quota benefits women 
running in smaller governorates.  One contact running in the 
Balqa district said, "it is more difficult to receive a 
higher percent of the votes in my district, with 20,000 
constituents, than in Tafileh, which only has 2,000 
constituents."  Women are also unlikely to be elected in 
Amman.  Several districts in Amman will have multiple women 
candidates, who will likely split the vote.  Voting districts 
in Amman are among the largest in Jordan--some with over 
200,000 constituents, making it more difficult for a woman to 
receive a high percentage of the votes.  Contacts predict 
that the smaller governorates--including Tafileh, Mafraq, 
Kerak, and Irbid--will most likely win the quota seats. 
 
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LACK OF NATIONAL ORGANIZATION HURTS 
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8. (C) Although there are several NGOs in Jordan focused on 
women's issues, no one organization has emerged to coordinate 
a general strategy for women candidates in the elections. 
(Post PA section has worked closely with Princess Basma's 
Hashemite Foundation and the National Commission for Women in 
an ongoing series of campaign workshops for women candidates, 
but the National Commission for Women has shown little 
initiative as a general coordinator, in part because some of 
the potential organizers show great reluctance to offer help 
to women outside their own social circles.)  Contacts 
complain that the lack of such an organization will undermine 
their collective interests.  For example, at least five 
liberal women plan to run in the third district of Amman, 
ensuring that none will likely win a quota seat.  Prominent 
women have also expressed the fear that "unqualified" women 
will run, win, perform poorly in Parliament, and weaken 
future support for women's participation in politics.  "We 
are concerned that women who are not qualified nor prepared 
will run for the wrong reasons...and if they win, will not 
represent us well." 
 
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ONE STRATEGY: COURT THE CHRISTIANS 
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9. (C) At least two women running in districts with large 
percentages of Christians told Poloff that they would be 
campaigning for the Christian vote.  One woman running in 
Balqa/Salt area said that she has no chance of obtaining the 
tribal vote in her district, but "Christians may vote for a 
moderate Muslim woman," who would more likely serve their 
interests than a tribal or IAF candidate.  However, in most 
heavily Christian districts, women would be competing with 
Christian quota seats (currently there are nine seats 
reserved for Christians). 
 
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COMMENT 
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10. (C) Most women Poloff contacted believe this coming 
election is a make or break event for women's political 
participation in Jordan.  Although many women are energized 
by this opportunity, they lack the infrastructure, and so 
far, the leadership to compete effectively with the IAF and 
tribal loyalties.  To this end, Post PA is organizing a 
fellowship campaign for April, circumstances permitting and 
will assist in the set-up and funding of a campaign phone 
center, managed by the Hashemite Fund, to be used jointly by 
women candidates.  Post is also involved in arranging 
post-election training and exchanging opportunities for the 
six (or more) successful women candidates.  We plan to speak 
with a broad spectrum of women candidates in the run-up to 
the election. 
GNEHM