US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA511

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 000511 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CU, ELAB, PHUM, SNAR, GT 
SUBJECT: FEBRUARY 25 DINNER WITH PRESIDENT PORTILLO 
 
 
Classified By: JOHN R. HAMILTON for reason 1.5(b) 
 
Subject:  February 25 Dinner with President Portillo 
 
1. (S) Summary:  In a one-on-one dinner, President Portillo 
committed to making his decision on the UNHRC Cuba issue  "in 
a calm moment," promised to energize his Labor ministry on 
issues of labor justice, issued instructions to his 
Agriculture Minister (by phone during dinner) to get the 
Mediterranean Fruit fly program moving, sounded positive (not 
altogether convincingly) on the proposal to create a 
commission to investigate clandestine groups, and discussed 
drug issues extensively.  He said General Rios Montt appears 
determined to be the FRG presidential candidate and gave an 
inside account of the state of play on the month-long 
teachers, strike that shut down Guatemala's ports and 
international airport February 25.  End summary. 
 
2. (S) The dinner was in Portillo's home, at his invitation. 
 The meeting took place against a backdrop of Portillo having 
been absent from public view for the better part of a month, 
generating rumors that he has either effectively abdicated 
his responsibilities for governing to Vice President Reyes or 
that he has been on a drinking binge.  Portillo was sober, 
and looked well, however, and well informed on all the issues 
the Ambassador raised.  To wit: 
 
Teachers, Strike 
-------------------- 
3. (S)  Portillo ran down the issues at play knowledgeably: 
the government cannot afford the pay raise being demanded, as 
it would break the IMF standby agreement.  Negotiations, 
suspended since February 21, had resumed late in the day 
February 25, and had "gone well a much improved atmosphere." 
The government had made an extensive presentation on the 
state of public finances, to which the teachers had 
reportedly listened.  Portillo said the government would not 
back off on an innovative pilot program of educational reform 
that the teachers feel threatened by (the PRONADE program, 
which USAID has supported) but felt there were some other 
areas of teachers, demands where the government could give 
ground.  The Ambassador told him that his absence from view 
was generating rumors that no one was in charge and had 
combined during the day February 25, when ports, border and 
international airport were shut down, to produce a sense that 
events were spinning out of control.  Portillo said he 
recognized the need to surface soon, commenting that he had 
almost done so the weekend before, before reconsidering when 
the negotiations took a bad turn. 
 
Drugs 
-------- 
4. (S)   The Ambassador briefed the President on the state of 
the Embassy,s engagement on narcotics issues with the 
Guatemalan team headed by Foreign Minister Gutierrez.  This 
produced nothing new, but Portillo showed himself to be well 
briefed by Gutierrez and engaged.  He was still pushing his 
idea of ceding at least partial control of Guatemalan ports 
to U.S. authorities; the Ambassador encouraged him to 
consider a port concession, in which he showed interest. 
Portillo mentioned that he had spend last weekend in Mexico 
with the Mexican Attorney General, who agreed to train a 
first tranche  of 25 civilian intelligence agents as part of 
a long-term plan to supplant military intelligence. 
 
Labor issues 
---------------- 
5. (S)  The Ambassador said the USG would decide on/about 
April 15 whether to accept an AFL-CIO GSP labor petition.  He 
said the key issues are several unresolved cases of murder 
against labor leaders, severe backlogs in the system of labor 
justice, and the inability of the system of labor justice to 
enforce its decisions to impose fines and to order workers 
illegally fired to be rehired.  Portillo said he would get on 
his Labor Minister to address these areas. 
 
Clandestine Groups Investigation 
------------------------------------------ 
6. (S)  Portillo said he had invited Human Rights Watch 
director for the Americas Jose Miguel Vivanco to facilitate 
agreement on a proposal to stand up a mixed commission to 
investigate so-called clandestine groups because of 
Vivanco,s demonstrated probity and commitment to human 
rights.  He expected to receive a proposal from Vivanco 
momentarily and said he would "make it his own."  He also 
said he had that day signed a letter giving the Human Rights 
Ombudsman (the official sponsor of the proposal) a response, 
thus meeting a February 28 deadline that the Ombudsman has 
made public.  The proposal would respond more on process than 
it would on substance, he admitted.  At the Ambassador,s 
suggestion, he said he would make personal contact with the 
Ombudsman to see if they could overcome mutual mistrust. 
 
Cuba 
------- 
7. (S)  The Ambassador asked, "what in the world is going on 
with Cuba?" alluding thus to the bizarre admiration that the 
normally rightist Vice President Reyes expressed for the 
Cuban system on returning from a weeklong visit to Havana. 
Portillo said "two things:  resentment over de-certification 
and the impression that the U.S. is going all out to prevent 
a Rios Montt presidency."  The view is the (ruling) FRG is 
that "we gave the U.S. loyal support (on Cuba) and this is 
how they repay us."  The Ambassador replied that pique is 
exactly what it looks like and that that is not a posture for 
a serious government to be caught in.  Is Guatemala, he 
asked, really going to throw away the hard-earned respect it 
won for taking the right stand on a human rights issue of 
real importance because of resentment over unrelated issues? 
Explaining our position on the Rios Montt candidacy (that 
Rios Montt,s reputation is such that bilateral relations 
would become unmanageable if he were elected and that the FRG 
should know this in advance of making a decision on its 
candidate), the Ambassador asked if it would help for him to 
engage senior FRG congressional leaders directly.  Portillo 
said no, to leave the issue to him and FM Gutierrez, 
promising that they would make a considered decision "when 
things calm down."  The Ambassador said that, out of 
consideration for the political difficulties it could 
generate, we would not be pressing the GOG to co-sponsor the 
Cuban resolution, but that we wanted a "yes" vote.  In 
response, Portillo was officially non-committal but the body 
language and tone were more encouraging than we had expected. 
 
Moscamed Go-ahead 
--------------------------- 
8. (S)  The Ambassador briefed Portillo on the delay in the 
startup in this year,s spraying of the Mediterranean fruit 
fly bait (an insecticide), expecting that he would have to 
lay out the facts in some detail.  Portillo was up to date on 
this issue, too, however, commenting that it had been 
discussed in a cabinet meeting the day before.  A bit for 
show, but hopefully for real, Portillo phoned his Agriculture 
Minister on the spot, giving him instructions to &cut 
through the  BS, and get the program moving.8  The AG 
minister could be heard saying "si senor Presidente." 
Comment:  We'll see. 
 
9. (S) Meeting of Central American Presidents with the 
President:  Portillo confirmed that an April 11 date works 
just fine for him. 
 
Politics and personalities 
------------------------------- 
10. (S)  Portillo is convinced that Rios Montt will seek to 
run. Whether he will succeed is another question, but his 
intention to be President is genuine.  Rios Montt has told 
me, Portillo laughed, that he is not about to repeat the 
"Portillo experience," by which he meant that creating 
another president who then asserts his independence. 
Portillo said that he feels a lot of respect, affection and 
gratitude toward Rios Montt, who is more flexible, moderate 
and more of a democrat than generally believed.  &It is his 
wife and daughter who are the authoritarians,8 Portillo 
said, recalling how the two of them drew up the cabinet that 
they wanted him to name five days before he took office. 
Life with the two Rios Montt women has been an ordeal, he 
said. 
 
11. (S) Inserting a caveat to the forgoing, however, Portillo 
said that Rios Montt is impetuous, and conceivably could, for 
reasons of health and general fatigue, decide suddenly not 
run.  But he repeated that all signs point toward a Rios 
Montt candidacy. 
 
12. (S) Comment:  In ending the evening, Portillo expressed 
interest in getting together informally every two to three 
weeks.  That may amount to too much of a good thing, but the 
Ambassador is on the hook to host the next such occasion. 
 
 
HAMILTON