US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB432

UNCLAS ZAGREB 000432 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, HR 
SUBJECT: CROATIA APPLIES FOR EU MEMBERSHIP 
 
 
1.  SUMMARY: PRIME MINISTER RACAN SUBMITTED CROATIA'S 
OFFICIAL APPLICATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP ON FEBRUARY 21 IN 
ATHENS.  CROATIA'S STATUS AS A CANDIDATE COULD BE CONFIRMED 
WITHIN A YEAR'S TIME, THE EUROPEAN INTEGRATION MINISTER 
SAID.  REFUGEE RETURNS, COOPERATION WITH THE WAR CRIMES 
TRIBUNAL (ICTY), AND REFORM OF THE JUDICIAL SECTOR ARE 
MAJOR CHALLENGES ON THE EU PATH.  THE GOC BELIEVES THAT 
CROATIA COULD BE READY FOR MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU BY THE END 
OF 2006.  THE PROCESS LEADING UP TO THE APPLICATION, 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
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INCLUDING AN EXTENSIVE GOC LOBBYING TOUR AND BROAD NON- 
PARTISAN SUPPORT IN THE PARLIAMENT, SHOWS THE GREAT 
IMPORTANCE OF THE ISSUE FOR CROATIANS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  PRIME MINISTER IVICA RACAN OFFICIALLY SUBMITTED 
CROATIA'S APPLICATION FOR MEMBERSHIP IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 
TO THE GREEK PM AND CURRENT EU CHAIR, COSTAS SIMITIS, ON 
FEBRARY 21 IN ATHENS.  THIS ONE-PAGE DOCUMENT -- WHICH 
COMES IN PACKAGE WITH A PROMOTIONAL CD TITLED "REMEMBER 
CROATIA" -- WAS CO-SIGNED BY RACAN AND PRESIDENT STJEPAN 
MESIC.  AT THE OFFICIAL PRESENTATION IN ATHENS, RACAN 
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT CROATIA WAS COMMITTED TO BUILDING A TRULY 
DEMOCRATIC SOCIETY, THE RULE OF LAW AND AN EFFICIENT 
ECONOMY -- ADDING, HOWEVER, THAT THE SERBIAN "AGGRESSION" 
AND ITS CONSEQUENCES HAD SLOWED CROATIA ON THAT PATH. 
RACAN ALSO RECALLED THAT CROATIA'S AMBITION TO JOIN THE EU 
HAD WON ACROSS-THE-BOARD SUPPORT FROM EU MEMBERS DURING HIS 
GOVERNMENT'S LOBBYING TOUR PRECEEDING THE APPLICATION. 
 
OPTIMISTIC? 
----------- 
 
3.  GENERALLY, THE GOVERNMENT HAS TRIED TO CONVEY OPTIMISM 
ABOUT ITS EU ASPIRATIONS, ALTHOUGH THE IRAQ CRISIS HAS CAST 
A CLOUD OVER ITS EFFORTS.  PM RACAN PRIVATELY TOLD THE 
AMBASSADOR FEBRUARY 24 THAT THE EU APPLICANT STATUS OF 
CROATIA MADE ITS POSITION VIS-A-VIS IRAQ "TWICE AS DELICATE 
AS THAT OF BULGARIA AND ROMANIA WHICH IN TURN WERE IN A 
SITUATION TWICE AS DELICATE AS THOSE OF OTHER CANDIDATES." 
MORE BROADLY, AUTHORITIES HAVE TOLD US THAT THE 
GOVERNMENT'S EFFORTS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AND PROGRESS IS 
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STEADY.  MIRJANA MLADINEO, THE DEPUTY MINISTER OF EUROPEAN 
INTEGRATION, REMINDED US OF HER PREDICTION OF OVER A YEAR 
AGO.  SHE WAS VERY SATISFIED THAT CROATIA'S APPLICATION 
PROCESS HAD PROCEEDED ACCORDING TO PLAN.  HER MINISTRY HAD 
ADDED TALENTED STAFF AND WAS WORKING CLOSELY WITH THE LINE 
MINISTRIES.  EUROPEAN INTEGRATION MINISTRY OFFICIALS 
ENJOYED GOOD COOPERATION WITH COUNTERPARTS IN COUNTRIES 
AHEAD OF CROATIA IN THE ACCESSION PROCESS, INCLUDING 
HUNGARY AND SLOVENIA, AND BEHIND THEM, INCLUDING SERBIA AND 
MONTENEGRO. 
 
4.  TALKING TO THE PRESS ON FEBRUARY 25 IN ZAGREB, EUROPEAN 
INTEGRATION MINISTER NEVEN MIMICA SAID CROATIA COULD BE 
READY TO BECOME AN EU MEMBER BY THE END OF 2006 -- A GOAL 
MOST OBSERVERS CONSIDER HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC IF NOT DOWN RIGHT 
IMPLAUSIBLE.  HE EXPECTED CROATIA TO SECURE CANDIDATE 
STATUS WITHIN A YEAR, AFTER THE EC HAS STATED ITS OPINION 
ON THE APPLICATION.  IN THE MEANTIME, MIMICA EXPECTS THAT 
CROATIA WILL COMPLETE ALL THE TERMS OF THE STABILIZATION 
AND ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT WITH THE EU (SAA) NEXT YEAR. 
WHILE PREDICTING THAT THE IRAQ CRISIS WOULD NOT 
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE PACE OF CROATIAN ACCESSION, MIMICA 
IDENTIFIED THE RETURN OF REFUGEES, COOPERATION WITH THE 
HAGUE TRIBUNAL (ICTY) AND THE REFORM OF THE JUDICIARY AS 
THE THREE MAIN CHALLENGES ON CROATIA'S PATH TO THE EU AND 
NATO.  MOST OBSERVERS AGREE THAT EU MEMBERSHIP ENJOYS WIDE 
SUPPORT IN CROATIA, WITH ONLY FRINGE FIGURES ON THE RIGHT 
OPPOSING IT. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
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5.  THE POLITICAL IMPORTANCE OF GETTING ON THE ROAD TO EU 
MEMBERSHIP COULD BE UNDERSCORED BY THE UNPRECEDENTED 
LOBBYING EFFORT THAT THE PRESIDENT, PRIME MINISTER, FOREIGN 
MINISTER AND OTHERS PERSONALLY ENGAGED IN DURING THE MONTHS 
LEADING UP TO THE APPLICATION.  FEW DOUBT THAT THE GOC HAS 
SO FAR BEEN NAVIGATING THE EASY WATERS.  THE COMING PERIOD 
WILL BE DIFFERENT; SUBSTANCE MUST REPLACE PROCESS.  THE 
GOVERNMENT MUST WORK ON AN ASSORTMENT OF REQUIREMENTS TO 
HARMONIZE DOMESTIC LAWS WITH EU LAWS, TO MOVE TO COMPLY 
WITH INTERNATIONAL OBLIGATIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE WAR 
CRIMES TRIBUNAL AND THE RETURN OF REFUGEES.  THE LIST OF 
RESPONSIBILITIES IS LONG -- AND GOC EFFORTS TO DATE HAVE 
BEEN MIXED AT BEST AND NON-EXISTENT AT WORST.  WHILE THE 
EUROPEAN INTEGRATION MINISTRY HAS MANY TALENTED PEOPLE, IT 
IS IN THE LINE MINISTRIES -- JUSTICE IN PARTICULAR -- WHERE 
THE HEAVY LIFTING WILL HAVE TO BE DONE BEFORE CROATIA 
ENTERS THE UNION.  WE DOUBT MANY DIFFICULT REFORMS WILL BE 
ON THE GOVERNMENT'S AGENDA BEFORE CROATIAN ELECTIONS, WHICH 
MUST BE HELD BY SPRING NEXT YEAR. 
 
ROSSIN 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
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