US embassy cable - 03ABUJA404

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000404 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CAIRO FOR POL: JMAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, SOCI, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA:  ANPP/PDP FUELED VIOLENCE IN KWARA STATE 
 
Classified by DCM T.D. Andrews.  Reasons 1.5 (D). 
 
 
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BACKGROUND 
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1.  (U)  Kwara state is located on Nigeria's ethnic and 
religious divide and its divisive politics provide a study 
of the difficulties facing Nigerian politics in general. 
Until the Islamic Jihad in the early 19th century, Ilorin, 
the modern capital of Kwara state, was a part of the Oyo 
(Yoruba) Empire.  With the impending arrival of Usman 
Danfodio, the Fulani leader whose two goals were to spread 
Islam and expand the Sokoto Caliphate, a Yoruba leader 
named Afonja cooperated with the jihadists to wrest the 
Kwara region from the south.  Afonja's expectation of being 
named as the leader of the region was dashed when the 
northerners established the Ilorin Emirate and named a 
Fulani to head it.  Pre-existing Yoruba tribal institutions 
were eliminated and the Ilorin Emirate has been ruled by 
Fulani since that time. 
 
 
2.  (C)  Today's political crisis in Kwara has its roots in 
that historical dispute.  Dr. Abubakar Olusola (Sola) 
Saraki, physician, banker, former senator, one-time 
presidential candidate and longtime strongman of Kwara 
politics, is a product of the Hausa/Fulani emirate system. 
His primary antagonist, Governor Mohammed Lawal claims 
descent from Afonja.  Lawal, a retired military officer and 
a protege of Saraki until shortly after his election in 
1999, has made serious efforts to revive the Yoruba tribal 
institutions in the state and is slated to oppose Sola's 
son, Bukola (Buki), in the 2003 gubernatorial contest. 
Providing more spice for this conflict is the presence of 
State Commissioner of Police Mohammed Abubakar.  Abubakar 
was Deputy Commissioner of Police at Lagos' Murtala 
Mohammed International Airport in 1998 when a bomb blast 
destroyed the office of the airport's Chief Security 
Officer.  He later made the Abacha-directed announcement 
that bomb-making materials were found in the office, over 
the objections of State Commissioner of Police Tsav, who 
maintained that the claim was false.  Coincidentally, 
Abubakar was also Commissioner of Police for Plateau State 
during the 2002 ethnic violence that claimed dozens of 
victims. 
 
 
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POLITICS AND BETRAYAL 
--------------------- 
 
 
 
 
3.  (SBU)  One of the issues behind the conflict is the 
naming of traditional rulers.  Lawal has promoted more than 
twenty Yoruba traditional rulers, vowing to "return the 
lost status of the Yoruba."  Additionally, court challenges 
to the nomination of titleholders in the Ilorin Emirate 
have come from both Lawal and Ilorin Emir Gambari (a Saraki 
supporter), with each seeking to limit the influence of the 
other. 
 
 
4.  (C) The fallout between Saraki and Lawal, who won 
election on the APP (now ANPP) ticket in 1999, has created 
a seismic shift in Kwara's political landscape.  Saraki, 
along with his son (now the PDP gubernatorial candidate), 
several National Assembly members and many supporters, 
joined the ruling PDP.  Senator Ahmed Zuruq and five 
representatives (including Saraki's daughter Gbemisola 
Saraki-Fowora) stated that "the expulsion of the Kwara 
ANPP's founding fathers" (Sola) led to a loss of "vision 
and focus" in Kwara. 
 
 
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POLITICAL VIOLENCE ESCALATES 
---------------------------- 
 
 
5.  (C)  In October 2002, violence attributed to political 
activities in the state escalated.  Candidates of the 
Alliance for Democracy (AD) were attacked while en route to 
Ilorin within sight of a police station, and several 
vehicles were destroyed.  According to some witnesses, 
Police Commissioner Abubakar was present at the scene of 
the attack and instructed his bodyguards not to interfere. 
 
 
6. (C)  Three weeks later, a bomb destroyed the office's of 
the Ilorin-based journal "The National Pilot."  The paper 
is owned by Buki Saraki.  Abubakar arrested several close 
associates of Lawal and declared others wanted but said he 
"could not enter (the Governor's offices) to arrest them." 
Regardless of the appropriateness of the arrests, most 
observers believe that the bombing was politically 
motivated.  Three weeks later, Lawal announced that his 
government had "uncovered a plot to bomb government 
offices," in a probable to shift speculation from his 
involvement in the previous attack.  In a thinly veiled 
accusation of Saraki, he said that the plot was "hatched in 
the home of a prominent politician in Ilorin." 
 
 
7.  (SBU) The latest round of violence set off on February 
12, with twelve people attacked around Ilorin.  According 
to one of the victims, his attackers burst into his home in 
the middle of the night and cut him with machetes "for 
putting campaign posters of Bukola Saraki on our houses." 
The Eid al Fitr prayers on February 13 passed peacefully 
under an intense security presence, but atypically without 
the presence of either the Governor or Dr. Saraki. 
 
 
8.  (C)  Elsewhere in the state on the same day, however, 
Lawal's motorcade came under attack and one person was 
reported killed.  He immediately blamed Saraki.  At the 
same time, a motorcade of Saraki supporters was attacked en 
route to Makurdi, capital of Benue state, to attend the 
launching of President Olusegun Obasanjo's presidential 
campaign.  One supporter was reportedly killed with several 
others seriously injured.  The PDP members involved allege 
that the attack on their motorcade was carried out on 
instructions from a personal assistant to one of Lawal's 
commissioners.  According to Bukola Saraki, his group was 
attacked by the "Governor's convoy," and the killing took 
place with the Governor present. 
 
 
9.  (U)  Other sporadic attacks have been reported in Kwara 
state.  Most incidents apparently start from arguments over 
the placing of campaign posters of the candidates.  The 
Nigerian habit of pasting campaign posters to highway 
signs, private property and virtually anything else that 
doesn't get out of the way tends to invite clashes over 
turf.  At least 46 persons have reportedly been injured in 
three separate incidents.  The clashes have also caused 
property and vehicular damage in around Ilorin. 
 
 
10.  (U)  On the evening of February 19, Bukola claims that 
armed men entered his Maitama residence in Abuja in an 
assassination attempt.  The four gunmen apparently used a 
ladder to scale the fence, cut the concertina wire and 
attempted to gain entrance to the residence.  Police at the 
house discovered the attempt and exchanged gunfire with the 
suspects who managed to escape.  Saraki was not in the 
house at the time. 
 
 
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COMMENT 
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11.  (C)  The political climate in Kwara (and the rest of 
the nation) continues to heat up.  Lawal, a former military 
man with a widespread reputation for settling his scores by 
force, and Sola Saraki, his former political mentor who has 
never backed away from a challenge, seem headed toward 
further clashes as they and Nigeria's two largest parties 
fight to win the governorship.  The story in Kwara, while 
unique in its historical antecedents, is similar to the 
situation in many other states.  The move of the Saraki 
family to the ruling PDP en masse highlights one of the 
problems of Nigerian politics: loyalty to family and clan 
are much more important than loyalty to the party.  As the 
scheduled elections approach, local concerns will begin to 
displace the talk about presidential succession and could 
heighten the sense of insecurity that is increasing by the 
day throughout Nigeria. 
JETER