US embassy cable - 03ISTANBUL232

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000232 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2013 
TAGS: ASEC, PGOV, PHUM, TU, Istanbul 
SUBJECT: ISTANBUL ANTI-WAR PROTESTS: WHAT KEEPS THEM SMALL? 
 
REF: ISTANBUL 225 
 
 
Classified By: CG David Arnett for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  In a country that recent polls show is 
approximately 94 percent against a war in Iraq, one would 
expect its largest city to have seen its share of large 
anti-war demonstrations.  Despite a populace that holds views 
more squarely anti-war than London, Paris or New York, to 
date protest organizers have not been able to attract more 
than 5,000-8,000 of Istanbul's 12 million residents.  The 
reasons for this lie in Turkey's fragmented civil society; 
police and security attitudes; and harsh winter weather.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
 
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WHOSE RALLY IS IT? 
------------------ 
 
 
2. (C) The average Istanbul resident is strongly anti-war. 
But, before attending a rally against the war, most likely he 
or she will ask who is organizing it, and who is likely to 
attend.  The possibility of a rally being &hijacked8 by, or 
accused of collaboration with, more radical groups is a 
powerful disincentive to participation.  In a February 15 
protest in Kadikoy, an initially peaceful protest became a 
small-scale riot, involving Molotov cocktail throwing and the 
arrest of approximately 60 alleged members of the 
outlawed Kurdish PKK/KADEK organization.  Turkish citizens' 
desire to avoid trouble and distance themselves from 
accusations of sympathy with some radical groups provide a 
strong reason to stay home. 
 
 
3. (C) Across the spectrum, political parties and NGOs have 
held anti-war functions, but often seek to use the theme to 
further their own ends.  If someone isn't a die-hard Saadet 
Partisi supporter, for example, he probably doesn't want to 
attend their rally, regardless of how he feels about the 
anti-war theme.  Perhaps recognizing how difficult it has 
been to bring out the crowds, the organizers of a February 22 
anti-war meeting billed their gathering as an academic 
conference rather than a rally.  Poloff noted that 
the rally-style speeches and rhetoric fell somewhat flat on a 
sedate audience of approximately 150 journalists, academics, 
and students. 
 
 
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THE HEAVY HAND OF LAW 
--------------------- 
 
 
4. (C) More senior police commanders remember well the nearly 
all-engulfing riots that paralyzed Istanbul in the late 
1970s.  As a result, police are rarely out-manned at 
political rallies.  In the case of openly announced 
demonstrations, the police often arrive several hours in 
advance, parking buses full of police throughout the area. 
When a rally's organizers do not notify the police 
(tantamount to requesting permission), reaction from the 
authorities can be more severe.  In recent protests near 
Galatasaray Lisesi (about a half mile from the Consulate 
General) on February 19, police buses were backed up for 
several blocks.  Two weeks prior, a protest planned for the 
Abide-i Hurriyet Park in Sisli had hundreds of police filling 
the location more than 3 hours in advance, with fewer 
protesters than police showing up, partially due to rain. 
 
 
5. (C) Our contacts also note that, at a typical rally, many 
plain-clothes policemen permeate the crowd, and also 
videotape the event.  The fact that taped speeches by 
pro-Islamist politicians have been leaked by the security 
establishment to the press in the past, often to discredit 
the politicians' claims of moderation, seems to support this 
thesis.  When coupled with a general lack of civic activism 
in Turkish society, efforts to avoid conflict with the police 
(and possible subsequent detention) provide a second powerful 
reason not to take to the streets. 
 
 
6. (C) One final factor reducing the size of possible 
protests is the fact that Turkey's AK Parti government has 
echoed the public's general anti-war sentiment in its 
statements and policies.  If parliament (as is expected) 
passes a resolution later this week allowing U.S. troops to 
transit Turkish territory, anti-war activists may take to the 
streets to protest their government's &disconnect8 with the 
public. 
 
 
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RAIN AND SNOW 
------------- 
 
 
7. (U) Another important consideration is that the weather 
has been almost unceasingly bad for the last three weeks. 
Considerable rain and snow have kept Turks at home across the 
board, with enclosed shopping malls the only significant 
crowded locations.  Protests are unlikely to draw any large 
numbers, no matter how heated the opposition, until the 
weather improves. 
 
 
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COMMENT 
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8. (C)  With a government echoing many of the public's 
anti-war arguments, even as it negotiates with the U.S. over 
troop transit, rally participation may have seemed 
unnecessary.  With the submission of a request to parliament 
for authorization of U.S. troop transit, that dynamic could 
change.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
ARNETT