US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA489

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 000489 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR G/TIP 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM, PGOV, PREL, PREF, ELAB, SMIG, SNAR, KCRM, KWMN, GT 
SUBJECT: EMBASSY VIEWS ON REGIONAL ANTI-TIP HARMONIZATION 
 
REF: STATE 32314 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  Embassy concurs that regional 
harmonization of anti-trafficking in persons legislation, as 
outlined in RefTel, would further U.S. interests in 
Guatemala.  Harmonized anti-TIP legislation is necessary to 
achieve greater regional cooperation to prevent and combat 
trafficking, and to protect the rights of victims.  The 
Regional Conference on Migration may be a useful forum in 
which to promote these efforts.  In Guatemala, prospects for 
passage of new anti-TIP legislation is complicated by 
election-year politics.  For this reason, regional 
discussions would be helpful in 2003, while legislative 
efforts are more likely to prosper in 2004. End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) The following responses are keyed to questions in 
RefTel para 4: 
 
a)  Willingness of key national legislators to introduce and 
promote harmonized anti-TIP legislation: 
 
-- National elections for President, Vice President, all 
Congressional deputies and all Mayors will be held in 
November 2003.  The official campaign period will open in 
May, but political jockeying has already begun, complicating 
the passage of any legislation this year.  For this reason, 
prospects for passage of G/TIP harmonization legislation will 
be better in 2004.  Efforts to pass such legislation in 2003 
would depend on the willingness of the National Republican 
Front (FRG), which has a simple majority in Congress, to 
support it.  That willingness is not assured -- the GOG and 
FRG are smarting from the recent U.S. counter-narcotics 
decertification decision. 
 
b)  Openness of legislature and government to work with 
neighboring 
governments, NGOs, and IOs to achieve harmony of anti-TIP 
legislation: 
 
-- We believe the GOG and ruling FRG are open to regional 
cooperation in this area with other governments and 
international organizations.  In general, the 
GOG has more hesitation working with regional NGOs. 
 
c)  Prospects for passage of an harmonized anti-TIP bill: 
 
-- Prospects for passage of legislation in 2003 is fair.  We 
estimate that prospects for passage in the new Congress in 
2004, with substantial USG lobbying and support, would be 
good. 
 
d) impact of a legislative debate on TIP in Guatemala, 
regardless of passage: 
 
-- Congressional debate would raise awareness among 
legislators, but the issue could also be distorted (e.g. from 
TIP to USG interference) by some for political considerations 
related to the 2003 political campaign. 
MCFARLAND