US embassy cable - 03ANKARA1207

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001207 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU, IZ 
SUBJECT: ON THE EVE OF THE IRAQ VOTE: WHICH WAY WILL TURKEY 
GO? 
 
(U) Classified by DCM RSDeutsch.  Reasons: 1.5 (b)(d). 
 
 
1. (C) P.M. Gul's cabinet formally submitted a combined draft 
resolution -- covering deployment of U.S. troops through 
Turkey and deployment of Turkish forces abroad -- to 
Parliament Feb. 24. Given procedural requirements, the 
earliest Parliament can begin debate will be 1500 local (0800 
Washington time) on Tuesday, Feb. 25.  Deputy P.M. Sener 
announced publicly that the Government decided to send the 
petition to Parliament even though "an important" number of 
ministers "did not find it convincing," though in the end 
they joined their colleagues and signed on.  Gul is 
discussing the matter with President Sezer, whose insistence 
on international legitimacy via new UNSC authority remains 
strong and public. 
 
 
2. (C) In Feb. 24 conversations with us, AK leader Erdogan 
and other senior contacts from across the political spectrum 
-- members of parliament, journalists, think tanks, NGO and 
labor groups -- in the main expressed the belief that the 
ruling AK Party/Government will prevail on its skeptical 
parliamentary group to support passage of the resolution. 
 
 
-- Erdogan told the Ambassador they would "do all we can" to 
secure parliamentary support, but cautioned that there will 
have to be some unspecified compromises on the USG-GOT 
political, economic, and military agreements currently being 
negotiated. 
 
 
-- Sukru Elekdag, retired ambassador and current member of 
opposition CHP, confirmed that his party will vote as a bloc 
against the AK resolution: "We see no urgency for war, and we 
think the inspection regime should be strengthened and given 
more time."  Other CHP M.P.s -- including Foreign Affairs 
Committee member Emin Koc, former minister Abdulkadir Ates, 
pollster Bulent Tanla, and Kurdish tribal leader Esat Canan 
-- echoed one another in declaring that CHP "will 100% 
reject" the resolution, although Koc and Canan opined that 
Erdogan has the votes to make it pass. 
 
 
-- Former NSC staffer and current executive director of the 
Advanced Strategy Center Faruk Demir avowed that the AK 
Government petition will pass if Erdogan, as he expects, 
backs it. 
 
 
-- Wire service Anadolu Ajansi Parliament bureau chief Faruk 
Albayrak explained to us Feb. 24 that because the voting will 
take place in a closed session, the chance for passage is 
"much better than 50%." 
 
 
-- Parliamentary legal expert Levent Kocak averred that 
"there will be some minor objections but the draft will pass." 
 
 
-- Labor union leaders Feridun Tankut (Steelworkers Union 
chairman) and Bulent Pirler (Employers Union secretary 
general) claimed that the resolution will pass.  However, 
Salim Uslu (president of the Islamist-oriented HAK-Is Union) 
said the result will depend on how much the AK government 
works on its parliamentary group. 
 
 
-- Speaker of parliament (and potential AK party rival to 
both Gul and Erdogan) Bulent Arinc publicly declared that "it 
would not be right" for the government to submit a draft 
without establishing that a possible operation has 
"international legitimacy" in line with the requirements of 
article 92 of the Turkish constitution. 
 
 
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Comment 
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3. (C) We expect AK will use its parliamentary majority to 
pass the resolution.  However, in waiting until virtually the 
last minute, and in failing to convince speaker Arinc, AK 
leaders may not have prepared the ground in parliament 
sufficiently, and there is a chance that the draft could 
fail.  Moreover, as Erdogan himself suggested, the draft 
USG-GOT papers and MOUs loom large in the minds of the AK 
leadership and in the legislature; all hinges on whether they 
will be completed before the vote. 
PEARSON