US embassy cable - 03ANKARA1203

UNCLAS ANKARA 001203 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SE, EB, EB/TRA 
ROME FOR FAA 
PARIS FOR TSA 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAIR, ASEC, PREL, TU 
SUBJECT: AIRLINES EXPECT DROP IN BOOKINGS/PROFITS WITH IRAQ 
OPERATION 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary.  Turkish Airlines (THY) and Delta Airlines 
Istanbul Office are concerned about the impact of a potential 
Iraq war on their operations.  THY expects that bookings on 
flights to the U.S., Europe, and the Far East, as well as 
domestic flights, will drop considerably.  Delta is preparing 
for a possible shut-down of its Istanbul office.  Both 
airlines expect a decrease in profits for their Turkey 
operations in 2003.  End summary. 
 
 
2. (SBU) Head of Marketing for Turkish Airlines Guliz Ozturk 
told econoff February 20 that THY expected a significant 
decrease in international and domestic operations due to a 
possible Iraq operation.  THY is currently running 10 flights 
per week to the U.S. -- 7 days a week to New York, and 3 days 
a week to Chicago.  Ozturk said she expected that travel by 
Turkish nationals to/from the U.S. would not change 
significantly, but other tourism and business travel could 
drop considerably.  THY hoped it would not have to cut any of 
its U.S. flights, but would reevaluate its decision based on 
bookings.  Ozturk expected that flights to and from the Far 
East would take the biggest hit, noting that THY already had 
decided to cut its Japan flights from 7x/week to 4x/week. 
She said THY also anticipated a significant drop in bookings 
on THY,s European flights, with the exception of travel by 
Turkish nationals to/from Germany. 
 
 
3. (SBU) Ozkurk said THY was also concerned about its 
domestic operations to the eastern and southeastern Turkey, 
particularly to Adana, Diyarbakir, and Erzerum.  She noted 
that it would be difficult, if not impossible, to keep 
aircraft and crews overnight in these cities once an 
operation began.  Ozkurk said the likely negative impact on 
THY,s profits was particularly distressing given the 
airline,s efforts in 2002.  Despite 9/11, increased 
insurance costs, and an economic crisis, 2002 had been THY,s 
most profitable year since 1996.  An Iraq operation would 
make it difficult to achieve such profit levels again in 
2003. 
 
 
4. (SBU) Delta Airlines Istanbul Station Manager Giray 
Salgirtay told econoff he was preparing for a possible 
shut-down of the Istanbul office in the case of an Iraq 
operation.  Salgirtay noted that Delta currently runs four 
flights/week from Istanbul to New York.  Although he hoped 
flights would continue at the current level, it was likely 
they would decrease -- or cease -- at least temporarily 
during an Iraq operation.  Salgirtay noted that, prior to 
9/11, the Turkey office had been one of Delta,s most 
profitable international operations.  However, business had 
decreased due to September 11 and the subsequent war in 
Afghanistan, causing the Turkey operation to barely break 
even in 2002.  Salgirtay said that most summer tours and 
cruises booked from February to April; therefore, he soon 
would have a better idea of how concerns about an Iraq 
operation would affect bookings. 
PEARSON