US embassy cable - 03LAGOS369

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000369 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CAIRO FOR POL - MAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PINR, ETRD, NI 
SUBJECT: LAGOS STATE GOVERNOR'S VIEWS ON IRAQ, NATIONAL 
ELECTIONS, AND AGOA 
 
Classified By: ACG ROBYN HINSON-JONES FOR REASON 1.5 (D) 
 
 
1. (C) Begin summary.  Lagos State Governor Tinubu told 
ConGen and DAS Bridgewater February 16 that he has asked the 
Lagos State Assembly to issue a resolution declaring that no 
new construction be permitted along "Embassy Row" on 
Victoria Island. Tinubu assured ConGen that he will do all he 
can to ensure protection of consular and diplomatic personnel 
in Lagos.  He shared our view that the dispute with Iraq 
relates to weapons of mass destruction, not Islam, and he is 
confident that most of his co-religionists share this view. 
Tinubu pledged to work closely with the legislators who will 
be elected or re-elected to the National Assembly to secure 
passage of a customs bill, inaction on which has prevented 
Nigeria from benefiting from AGOA.  Tinubu disclosed 
antipathy for President Obasanjo, but praised Vice President 
Atiku Abubakar, whom he has known for many years.  End 
summary. 
 
 
2. (C) During a luncheon for visiting DAS Pamela Bridgewater 
February 16, Lagos State Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu assured 
the DAS and accompanying ConGen that his office will do all 
it can to ensure protection of the Consulate in the event of 
war with Iraq. Tinubu added that he has asked the Lagos State 
Assembly to issue a resolution declaring that no new 
construction be permitted along "Embassy Row" on Victoria 
Island. With a view to the longer term, he will seek the 
Assembly's approval to designate the Walter Carrington 
Crescent a diplomatic zone.  Such action would help ensure 
the safety and security of diplomatic missions remaining in 
Lagos. 
 
 
3. (C) Tinubu expressed concern about Al Queda's nominal 
designation of Nigeria among the countries that need to be 
liberated from the grasp of American imperialism. Tinubu 
asserted that the vast majority of his fellow Muslims are 
neither sympathetic to Baghdad nor extremist Muslims. 
Nigeria's moderate Muslims have great sympathy for the 
United States, he said, and they know that the issue between 
Iraq and the United Nations relates to weapons of mass 
destruction, not Islam.  The Governor said Al Queda's 
message was meant for agitators who might jeopardize 
Nigeria's unity and development. 
 
 
4. (C) Regarding security in Nigeria, Tinubu said he expects 
that even if war breaks out few people will be incited to 
hold pro-Iraq or anti-US demonstrations in the southern 
states, particularly Osun, Oyo and Lagos.  He said the 
politicians do not want international politics to detract 
from their mobilization efforts for the spring elections. 
Tinubu (himself a Muslim) has been meeting with Muslim 
leaders who will not support anti-US activities.  He promised 
that any agitators would be "checkmated".  The situation is 
different in northern Nigeria, he said, where it is 
politically expedient for moderate politicians to support 
Sharia.  He expects violent demonstrations specifically in 
Kano, Kaduna and Jos. 
 
 
5. (C) Tinubu senses that the United States has not 
maintained the momentum in its positive engagement of Islam 
that it had shown shortly after September 11, 2001. Lately, 
US media outlets have not shown enough concern for Muslims in 
the coverage of the impending conflict with Iraq.  US 
coverage of the issue has been too intellectual when it is 
very emotional in the Muslim world.   This fact has given 
Iraq a propaganda edge over the US.  Tinubu perceives that 
the USG has not done a very good job explaining its cause to 
the Muslim world either.  Most Muslims, he said, believe 
President Bush is "simply finishing his father's business." 
 Even Tinubu, a staunch US supporter, doubts the validity of 
the US argument. 
 
 
6. (C) Turning to the presidential contest, Tinubu disclosed 
that he does not like President Obasanjo because he 
contributed to the end of democracy in Nigeria during his 
tenure as a military president and is now benefiting from 
that history.  That said, Tinubu admitted that he and his 
party, the Alliance for Democracy, must support Obasanjo. 
Southwest Nigeria is Yoruba land and the President is Yoruba. 
Tinubu"s party had no choice since it has not fielded a 
presidential candidate.  Moreover, Obasanjo is the only 
candidate who stands a chance of blocking his rival, General 
Muhammadu Buhari, whose ethnocentrism would jeopardize 
Nigeria"s national unity.  Buhari and his ilk are agents of 
destabilization who would be far worse than Obasanjo. Tinubu 
and many other governors are therefore implementing a 
strategy to re-elect Obasanjo, partly in an effort to prevent 
Sharia from spreading. Tinubu predicted that the President 
will follow his own course, if re-elected, since he will not 
need as many friends the second time around. 
 
 
7. (C) Tinubu praised Vice President Atiku Abubakar, whom he 
has known for many years. Tinubu warned that former military 
strongman Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida and National Security 
Advisor Aliyu Mohamed will try to discredit Atiku. That 
effort will fail, Tinubu predicted, because Atiku has the 
support of the governors and the National Assembly. 
Elaborating on his knowledge of the VP, Tinubu said he has 
known and understood the VP even before his entry into 
politics. Atiku is a detribalized politician who knows where 
he is going and how to build bridges to get there. Tinubu 
expects Atiku will play a larger role in the next 
presidential administration, especially in economic affairs, 
while Obasasanjo will concentrate on external relations. 
Atiku may also assume responsibility for other domestic 
portfolios in the next administration. 
 
 
8. (C) Tinubu bemoaned the fact that Nigeria is not 
benefiting from the textile provisions of the Africa Growth 
and Opportunity Act, and claimed partial responsibility for 
this situation.  He said he had not pressed his fellow 
governors to exert pressure on the national legislators for 
enactment of a customs bill mandating country-of-origin 
certification of inputs that might go into Nigerian textile 
exports to the United States.  Since Lagos State 
manufacturers could benefit substantially from the AGOA 
textile provisions, Tinubu plans to press for quick passage 
of the customs bill.  He believes the next legislature will 
passed it soon after it convenes in late spring 2003. 
 
 
9. (C) Bio comment.  Tinubu is direct, articulate, and a 
sharp analyst who understands accommodation.  He acknowledges 
the imperative of political compromise in the game for power, 
even with political actors whom he might be inclined to 
denigrate. Tinubu credits his going into politics to Atiku's 
personal encouragement.  Tinubu's admiration of Atiku 
suggests that the Governor could be persuaded to play a 
national role in an Atiku administration if the VP were 
elected president four years hence. 
 
 
10. (U) DAS Bridgewater did not clear this cable before her 
departure from post. 
HINSON-JONES