US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB393

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000393 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, HR, PREL, HR, IZ, IZPGOV 
SUBJECT: IRAQ: JUST ANOTHER POLITICAL FOOTBALL FOR CROATIAN 
POLS 
 
REF: ZAGREB 297 AND PREVIOUS 
 
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CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF A.F.GODFREY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) 
 
SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) A FEBRUARY 18 JOINT SESSION OF THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS 
AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY COMMITTEES OF THE CROATIAN 
PARLIAMENT FAILED TO SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT'S POLICY LINE ON 
IRAQ.  PREDICTABLY, THE FAILURE HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH IRAQ, 
BUT WITH THE COALITION'S INCOMPETENCE AND THE OPPOSITION'S 
OPPORTUNISM.  SINCE THE SESSION PRODUCED NO CONCRETE RESULT, 
PARLIAMENT SPEAKER ZLATKO TOMCIC WILL LIKELY CALL FOR A 
BROADER DEBATE OF THE GOC IRAQ POLICY DURING THE NEXT PLENARY 
SESSION OF THE SABOR, WHICH MAY TURN OUT TO BE EVEN MORE 
DISRUPTIVE.  WHILE PM RACAN AND SOME OTHERS (INCLUDING WE) 
TRY TO STEER THE DEBATE IN CROATIA TO SADDAM AND IRAQ, MOST 
OF THE POLITICAL CHATTERING CLASS HERE CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON 
HOW THE GOC'S POLICY STATEMENTS ON IRAQ WILL AFFECT CROATIA'S 
APPLICATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP AND ON VARIOUS POLITICAL 
PARTIES' FORTUNES IN AN ELECTION YEAR. END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) THE GOC DECISION TO JOIN THE VILNIUS-10 DECLARATION 
OF SUPPORT TO THE USG INTERPRETATION OF IRAQ'S NONCOMPLIANCE 
WITH UNSCR 1441 TOOK MOST OF CROATIA'S POLITICAL LEADERS BY 
SURPRISE.  WHILE MESIC TOOK THE CABINET'S ABRUPT POLICY 
CHOICE MORE OR LESS IN HIS STRIDE, THE PARLIAMENT (SABOR) GOT 
ITS NOSE OUT OF JOINT.  INSISTING ON ITS CONSTITUTIONAL 
PREROGATIVE AS CROATIA'S SUPREME POLITICAL BODY, THE SABOR 
SCHEDULED A JOINT SESSION OF THE COMMITTEES ON NATIONAL 
SECURITY AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS (REFTEL).  THE MEETING WAS 
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DELAYED A WEEK AS THE PM WAS BUSY ABROAD DRUMMING UP SUPPORT 
FOR CROATIA'S EU BID, BUT IT FINALLY CONVENED IN CLOSED (BUT 
VERY LEAKY) SESSION ON FEBRUARY 18.  IN ADVANCE OF THE 
MEETING, THE EMBASSY PROVIDED BOTH COMMITTEES TRANSLATIONS OF 
SECRETARY POWELL'S FEBRUARY 5 INTERVENTION AT THE UN SECURITY 
 
SIPDIS 
COUNCIL AND SEVERAL OTHER SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS. 
 
3.  (C) AS THE COALITION HOLDS A SLIM MAJORITY IN BOTH 
COMMITTEES, THE OUTCOME OF THE VOTE SHOULD HAVE BEEN A 
FOREGONE CONCLUSION.  ANTE MARKOV (HSS), CHAIRMAN OF THE 
NATIONAL SECURITY COMMITTEE, MADE SURE OF ALL OF HIS VOTES 
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE MEETING (WE HAD ADMONISHED HIM NOT TO 
PLAY POLITICS ON IRAQ - REFTEL). 
 
4.  (C) ZDRAVKO TOMAC, WHO CHAIRS THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS 
COMMITTEE AND IS A MEMBER OF PM RACAN'S SDP, FAILED TO ENSURE 
THAT ALL OF THE MEMBERS OF HIS COMMITTEE WHO ARE ON THE 
COALITION WERE PRESENT AT THE MEETING.  TOMAC HAS BEEN A 
RIGHT-WING, KNOW-IT-ALL IRRITANT TO RACAN WITHIN THE SDP 
SINCE THE COALITION CAME TO POWER IN 2000, BUT THE PM -- WHO 
IS ALSO PRESIDENT OF THE SDP -- HAS NOT DONE ANYTHING TO 
BRING HIM INTO LINE.  IN THE RUNUP TO THIS JOINT COMMITTEE 
SESSION, TOMAC THREATENED TO QUIT THE SDP (AFTER HIS SISTER 
WAS FIRED FROM HER POSITION AS ASSISTANT MINISTER FOR 
VETERANS AFFAIRS). 
 
5.  (C) THE OPPOSITION HDZ, WHICH REMAINS LARGELY 
UNRECONSTRUCTED FROM THE CORRUPT, NATIONALIST DAYS OF 
PRESIDENT TUDJMAN, HAS TAKEN A STRONG POSITION IN SUPPORT OF 
USG EFFORTS ON IRAQ.  BUT WITHOUT ALL OF THE COALITION 
COMMITTEE MEMBERS PRESENT, THE OPPOSITION COULD NOT PASS UP 
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THE CHANCE TO DELIVER A POLITICAL DEFEAT TO PM RACAN.  THE 
OPPOSITION ABSTAINED FROM THE COMMITTEE VOTE, WHICH MEANT 
THAT WITH TWO FRINGE-PARTY VOTES AGAINST AND TWO COALITION 
VOTES PLAYING HOOKY, THE COMMITTEE DID NOT SUPPORT THE GOC 
POSITION. 
 
5.  (C) IN A FEBRUARY 19 POST-MORTEM MEETING, OPPOSITION MP 
AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE MEMBER VESNA SKARE-OZBOLT 
SHEEPISHLY ADMITTED TO US THAT THE ONLY REASON THE HDZ AND 
HER PARTY, THE RIGHT-OF-CENTER DEMOCRATIC CENTER (DC), VOTED 
AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT POSITION WAS ELECTION-YEAR POLITICS. 
THE DECISION TO ABSTAIN WAS MADE ON THE DAY OF THE COMMITTEE 
MEETING, WHEN HDZ PRESIDENT SANADER COUNTED NOSES AND SAW 
THAT THE COALITION WOULD LOSE WITHOUT THEM.  THE HDZ, WHICH 
IS DESPERATE TO GET THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY (AND 
ESPECIALLY THE USG) TO GIVE ITS SEAL OF APPROVAL TO ITS 
FAR-FROM-COMPLETE INTERNAL REFORM PROCESS, PHONED POLOFF 
AFTER THE VOTE TO TRY AND REASSURE US THAT THE HDZ POSITION 
ON IRAQ REMAINS STAUNCHLY PRO-USG.  THE HDZ ISSUED A PRESS 
RELEASE THE FOLLOWING DAY WITH THE SAME MESSAGE, BUT ADDING A 
LINE ESSENTIALLY SAYING THAT IT IS NOT THE OPPOSITION'S 
RESPONSIBILITY TO DELIVER THE GOVERNMENT'S POLICY. 
 
COMMENT 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4534 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  00393  02 OF 02  211406Z 
ACTION EUR-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  CIAE-00  INL-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    FBIE-00  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00 
      LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NEA-00   NRRC-00  NSAE-00 
      NSCE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SCT-00   SP-00    SSO-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  EPAE-00 
      PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-01   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00 
      SWCI-00    /005W 
                  ------------------3956CD  211406Z /38 
O 211400Z FEB 03 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9513 
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY SKOPJE PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY TIRANA PRIORITY 
USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 
SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 000393 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, HR, IZ 
SUBJECT: IRAQ: JUST ANOTHER POLITICAL FOOTBALL FOR CROATIAN 
POLS 
 
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PAGE 02        ZAGREB  00393  02 OF 02  211406Z 
 
6.  (C) NO FOLLOW-UP MEETING TO THE JOINT SESSION HAS BEEN 
SCHEDULED, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT PARLIAMENT SPEAKER ZLATKO 
TOMCIC (HSS) WILL LET THE GOVERNMENT'S POLICY CHOICE STAND 
WITHOUT THE SABOR MARKING ITS TERRITORY.  RIGHT NOW, THE 
COALITION PARTIES HAVE SUSPENDED THEIR DIFFERENCES IN ORDER 
TO PRESENT A UNITED FRONT AS CROATIA SUBMITS ITS APPLICATION 
TO THE EUROPEAN UNION (SIGNED ON FEBRUARY 20 AND SCHEDULED 
FOR DELIVERY IN ATHENS ON FEBRUARY 21).  BUT IT WON'T BE LONG 
BEFORE THE BELL RINGS TO SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT 
ROUND, AND IRAQ WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HOTTEST POLITICAL 
POTATO IN ZAGREB.  DESPITE POSSIBLE REPERCUSSIONS OUTSIDE OF 
CROATIA, POLITICIANS HERE WILL USE THIS ISSUE TO GAIN 
ADVANTAGE OVER THEIR OPPONENTS IN THIS ELECTION YEAR. 
ROSSIN 
 
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