US embassy cable - 03VATICAN683

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 VATICAN 000683 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR, EUR/WE-MENNUTI, NEA, S-KELLY AND GRAZE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2013 
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, PHUM, MOPS, PHUM, MOPS, PHUM, VT, VTPREL, VTPREL 
SUBJECT: SADDAM MEETING WITH CARDINAL ETCHEGARAY: VATICAN 
SEES "LAST CHANCE FOR DIPLOMACY" 
 
REF: A) VATICAN 641 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        VATICA  00683  01 OF 03  200658Z 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR JIM NICHOLSON, REASON E.O. 12958 1.5 (B,D) 
 
-------------------------- 
SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST 
-------------------------- 
 
1. (C) THE HOLY SEE'S MIDDLE EAST DIRECTOR, MONSIGNOR FRANCO 
COPPOLA, WHO ACCOMPANIED PAPAL SPECIAL ENVOY CARDINAL ROGER 
ETCHEGARAY TO BAGHDAD, GAVE DCM A FULL READOUT FEBRUARY 19 OF 
ETCHEGARAY'S VISIT AND FEBRUARY 15 MEETING WITH SADDAM 
HUSSEIN.  ACCORDING TO COPPOLA, THE PAPAL MISSION TO BAGHDAD 
WAS UNDERTAKEN BOTH TO REINFORCE WITH SADDAM THE SERIOUSNESS 
OF HIS SITUATION AND HIS NEED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO COOPERATE 
FULLY WITH UNMOVIC, WHILE ALSO SEEKING TO "CREATE A SENSE OF 
TRUST" WITH SADDAM THAT THE HOLY SEE BELIEVES COULD HELP THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ACHIEVE ITS GOAL OF IRAQI DISARMAMENT 
WITHOUT RECOURSE TO WAR.  ON THE BASIS OF THE VISIT, THE HOLY 
SEE BELIEVES THAT FIRM, BUT NON-CONFRONTATIONAL, DIPLOMACY 
THAT AVOIDS "HUMILIATING" SADDAM CAN ACHIEVE IRAQ'S 
DISARMAMENT WITHOUT RESORT TO A WAR THAT THEY FEAR WOULD 
INFLAME FUNDAMENTALIST ISLAM WITH "INCALCULABLE 
CONSEQUENCES."  COPPOLA VOICED THE HOLY SEE'S CONCERN AT HOW 
RECENT TRANSATLANTIC DIVISIONS AND A PERCEPTION OF DIVISION 
BETWEEN THE HOLY SEE AND THE U.S. HAVE PLAYED OUT IN THE 
PRESS.  THEY RECOGNIZE THAT THE PROGRESS ACHIEVED THUS FAR 
WITH IRAQ IS A DIRECT RESULT OF THE CREDIBLE THREAT OF FORCE 
AND INTERNATIONAL UNITY, AND THEY WORRY THAT PERCEPTIONS OF 
DIVISION WILL UNDERMINE THE PRESSURE ON SADDAM.  WITH PM 
BLAIR SET TO MEET THE POPE FEBRUARY 22, EMBASSY BELIEVES A 
HIGH-LEVEL U.S. VISIT TO THE HOLY SEE COULD HELP REINFORCE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        VATICA  00683  01 OF 03  200658Z 
THE PERCEPTION OF UNITY AND HIGHLIGHT THE SHARED U.S.-HOLY 
SEE DESIRE TO ACHIEVE A PEACEFUL DISARMAMENT OF IRAQ.  (SEE 
ALSO PARA 9 ACTION REQUEST.)  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
ETCHEGARAY DELIVERS POPE'S MESSAGE TO SADDAM 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  HOLY SEE MFA MIDDLE EAST DIRECTOR MONS. FRANCO 
COPPOLA GAVE DCM AND POLOFF A DETAILED READOUT FEBRUARY 19 OF 
HIS WEEK-LONG TRIP TO BAGHDAD WITH PAPAL SPECIAL ENVOY 
CARDINAL ROGER ETCHEGARAY.  COPPOLA TOLD US THE TRIP WAS 
UNDERTAKEN TO IMPRESS UPON SADDAM THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AND TO URGE HIS FULL AND IMMEDIATE 
COOPERATION WITH UNSCR 1441.  COPPOLA EMPHASIZED THAT THE 
HOLY SEE BELIEVES SADDAM HAS THUS FAR BEEN TOO PRONE TO 
PREVARICATION AND DECEPTION, AND THAT THE TRIP WAS SEEN BY 
THE VATICAN AS ITS LAST BEST CHANCE TO TALK SOME SENSE INTO 
SADDAM AND AVERT A WAR.  RECOGNIZING THE "DICTATOR'S 
MENTALITY" THEY WOULD ENCOUNTER IN DELIVERING SUCH A MESSAGE, 
ETCHEGARAY SOUGHT NOT TO CHALLENGE SADDAM DIRECTLY, BUT TO 
GIVE HIM A SENSE THAT, BY WORKING WITH THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY TO MEET ITS DEMANDS FOR DISARMAMENT, HE COULD ALSO 
ACHIEVE WHAT HE WANTS (CONTINUED POWER).  ETCHEGARAY DID IN 
FACT UNDERSCORE TO SADDAM THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE SITUATION 
AND THE NEED TO WORK WITH UNMOVIC, TO WHICH SADDAM'S 
IMMEDIATE REACTION WAS BOTH DEFIANT AND FATALISTIC.  HE 
OFFERED THE STANDARD LINE THAT IRAQ WAS COMPLYING, THAT THE 
U.S. WAS PURSUING A WAR OF AGGRESSION, AND THAT IRAQIS WOULD 
FIGHT TO THE END. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        VATICA  00683  01 OF 03  200658Z 
------------------------------------- 
DEALING WITH THE "DICTATOR MENTALITY" 
------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) DESPITE SADDAM'S SURFACE OBSTINACY, HOWEVER, THE HOLY 
SEE BELIEVES THE INTERNATIONAL UNITY AND FIRM DIPLOMACY 
BACKED BY A CREDIBLE THREAT OF FORCE FROM THE U.S. AND OTHERS 
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SIGNIFICANT, IF INCOMPLETE, ADVANCES SINCE 
THE FALL, REFLECTED BY SADDAM'S ACCEPTANCE OF UNMOVIC, THE 
DECISION TO PERMIT OVERFLIGHTS, AND RECENT MOVEMENT ON 
PRIVATE INTERVIEWS WITH IRAQI SCIENTISTS.  THEY BELIEVE THAT 
FULL DISARMAMENT CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED WITH CONTINUED FIRM BUT 
SUBTLE DIPLOMACY THAT WOULD OFFER SADDAM BOTH A FACE-SAVING 
ESCAPE FROM HIS PREDICAMENT AND PERSONAL SURVIVAL.  ACCORDING 
TO COPPOLA, THE KEY TO PROGRESS IN IRAQ WAS TO RECOGNIZE THAT 
CORNERED DICTATORS LIKE SADDAM WILL DIG IN WHEN CONFRONTED. 
"THEY ARE NOT USED TO DISCUSSING THINGS AND BEING 
CHALLENGED," COPPOLA OBSERVED.  "IF YOU WANT TO GET THINGS 
FROM THEM, THEY CANNOT BE HUMILIATED."  RATHER, THE HOLY SEE 
REGARDS IT AS ESSENTIAL TO ESTABLISH A DEGREE OF "TRUST" -- 
"NOT TRUST OF SADDAM TO BE SURE" -- BUT THE KIND OF 
UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN BUSINESSMEN THAT THERE IS SOMETHING IN 
IT FOR EVERYONE IF ALL PLAY BY THE RULES.  IN THIS WAY, 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ9130 
 
PAGE 01        VATICA  00683  02 OF 03  200658Z 
ACTION EUR-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DOTE-00  PERC-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    FAAE-00  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00 
      IO-00    LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NEA-00   NSAE-00 
      OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  CAEX-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00 
      ACE-00   P-00     SCT-00   SP-00    SSO-00   SS-00    STR-00 
      TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-01 
      G-00     SAS-00   SWCI-00    /008W 
                  ------------------388B98  200658Z /38 
O 200609Z FEB 03 
FM AMEMBASSY VATICAN 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
INFO ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY 
EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY 
SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 
WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 VATICAN 000683 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR, EUR/WE-MENNUTI, NEA, S-KELLY AND GRAZE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2013 
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, PHUM, VT 
SUBJECT: SADDAM MEETING WITH CARDINAL ETCHEGARAY: VATICAN 
SEES "LAST CHANCE FOR DIPLOMACY" 
 
COPPOLA CONCLUDED, DIPLOMACY CAN SECURE THE DISARMAMENT THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        VATICA  00683  02 OF 03  200658Z 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WANTS AND THE SURVIVAL SADDAM SEEKS. 
 
4. (C) TO BACK UP THIS CASE, THE HOLY SEE VIEWS THE FACT THAT 
SADDAM CONVENED HIS RUBBER-STAMP PARLIAMENT ON THE FRIDAY 
CONCLUDING THE HADJ TO PROMULGATE THE LAW BANNING WMD (WHICH 
WAS SUGGESTED BY ETCHEGARAY AT THE HOLY SEE'S REQUEST) AS A 
SIGN OF SADDAM'S WILLINGNESS TO COOPERATE WITH THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.  WORKING DISCRETELY RATHER THAN 
DIRECTLY WITH SADDAM, ETCHEGARAY HAD PRESSED THE IRAQIS TO 
OFFER SOME SORT OF SIGN THAT THEY HAD ABANDONED EFFORTS TO 
"NEGOTIATE" COMPLIANCE WITH THE I/C AND TO BUILD ON THEIR 
LIMITED COOPERATION BEFORE HANS BLIX' FEBRUARY 14 REPORT TO 
THE UNSC.  THE HOLY SEE REGARDS THIS RESULT -- DESPITE ITS 
LIMITED EFFECT -- AS AN IMPORTANT SIGN OF IRAQI WILLINGNESS 
TO COOPERATE IF NOT BACKED INTO A CORNER. 
 
---------------- 
WHAT DO WE WANT? 
---------------- 
 
5. (C) IN DETERMINING THE WAY FORWARD, COPPOLA SAID THE 
APPROACH DEPENDED ON THE REAL GOAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY.  IF THE GOAL IS TO REMOVE SADDAM, THEN HE AGREED 
THAT WAR IS THE MOST EFFECTIVE AND QUICKEST METHOD.  HOWEVER, 
THE WORLD MUST THEN BE PREPARED TO FACE THE CONSEQUENCES OF 
THIS DECISION -- WHICH COULD INCLUDE LOSS OF CONTROL OF 
SADDAM'S WMD TO TERRORISTS IN THE CHAOS OF BATTLE OR ITS 
IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH, DEATH OF ALLIED SOLDIERS AND IRAQI 
CIVILIANS, ENVIRONMENTAL DESTRUCTION, AND, MOST WORRISOME TO 
THE HOLY SEE, THE UNLEASHING OF EVER GREATER FUNDAMENTALIST 
PASSIONS WITH "INCALCULABLE CONSEQUENCES."  IF, ON THE OTHER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        VATICA  00683  02 OF 03  200658Z 
HAND, THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY GENUINELY SEEKS TO DISARM 
IRAQ OF WMD, SUBTLE DIPLOMATIC PRESSURE THAT DOESN'T 
"HUMILIATE" SADDAM CAN WORK, COPPOLA BELIEVED.  HE ASSERTED 
THAT EVER GREATER PRESSURE FROM INSPECTIONS AND MONITORING 
WOULD INCREASINGLY HINDER SADDAM'S ABILITY TO POSE A THREAT. 
FURTHERMORE, HE MAINTAINED THAT STEPPED UP INTELLIGENCE AND 
LAW ENFORCEMENT, AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL "SURGICAL STRIKES" ON 
SUSPECTED WEAPONS SITES WOULD BE MORE EFFECTIVE THAN ALL-OUT 
WAR IN ACHIEVING DISARMAMENT WITHOUT GENERATING CHAOS THAT 
COULD LEAD TO THE DISAPPEARANCE OF WMD FROM IRAQ.  PRESSED ON 
THIS POINT, COPPOLA ASSERTED THAT WAR WOULD CAUSE SUCH CHAOS 
IN IRAQ (WHICH HE ALREADY CHARACTERIZED AS A HOPELESSLY 
DISORGANIZED SOCIETY) THAT ANY WMD NOT IMMEDIATELY DESTROYED 
WOULD SURELY BE SPIRITED AWAY TO PRECISELY THOSE PLAYERS 
(INTERNATIONAL TERRORISTS) MOST LIKELY TO USE THEM. 
 
6. (C) IN THE DISARMAMENT SCENARIO, COPPOLA OBSERVED, GAINING 
IRAQI COOPERATION WOULD REQUIRE BUILDING SOME TRUST AND 
CONFIDENCE, WHICH IS WHAT THE ETCHEGARAY MISSION HOPED TO 
BEGIN.  "THE ONLY WAY TO MOVE FORWARD IS AWAY FROM THE TV 
CAMERAS, TO MAKE HIM UNDERSTAND."  HE NOTED THAT EVEN THE 
WORST PEOPLE OFTEN BELIEVE THEY ARE GOOD, THAT THEY ARE 
FOLLOWING THE RIGHT AND JUST PATH, OR, IN SADDAM'S CASE, THAT 
HE IS COLLABORATING.  ETCHEGARAY'S MISSION, COPPOLA 
CONCLUDED, SOUGHT TO CREATE AN OPENING TO CONVINCE SADDAM 
THAT HE COULD OBTAIN WHAT HE WANTS BETTER IN COLLABORATION 
WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY RATHER THAN IN CONFRONTATION 
WITH IT.  THAT SAID, THE HOLY SEE RECOGNIZES THAT TIME IS NOT 
ON THE SIDE OF PEACE UNLESS SADDAM ACCEPTS THE NEED TO 
COOPERATE FULLY. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        VATICA  00683  02 OF 03  200658Z 
------------------- 
THE MOOD IN BAGHDAD 
------------------- 
 
7. (C)  ASKED HIS IMPRESSIONS OF THE PSYCHOLOGICAL CONDITION 
OF IRAQIS HE MET WHILE IN BAGHDAD, COPPOLA SAID THEY ARE 
"RESIGNED TO WAR, FATALISTIC IN THE ARAB WAY."  HE SAID MANY 
APPEAR TO WANT TO LEAVE, AND ARE MAKING PLANS TO DO SO, BUT 
THAT THE REGIME HAS MADE IT IMPOSSIBLE - IN ORDER TO HAVE AS 
MANY CIVILIAN CASUALTIES AS POSSIBLE SHOULD WAR ERUPT.  GIVEN 
THE RISKS IRAQI CIVILIANS WOULD FACE, COPPOLA INFORMED US 
THAT THE HOLY SEE HAD DECIDED NOT TO RESPOND TO A J5 REQUEST 
CONVEYED TO THEM TO LIST AND IDENTIFY HOLY SEE DIPLOMATIC AND 
OTHER CATHOLIC SITES ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  COPPOLA SAID "WE 
CANNOT SAY IT'S NOT 'OK' TO BOMB HERE, BUT IT IS 'OK' TO BOMB 
THERE." 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
8. (C) AS SECRETARY OF STATE SODANO CLARIFIED IN AN INTERVIEW 
YESTERDAY, THE HOLY SEE IS NOT PACIFIST, BUT IS SEEKING TO BE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ9132 
 
PAGE 01        VATICA  00683  03 OF 03  200658Z 
ACTION EUR-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DOTE-00  PERC-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    FAAE-00  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00 
      IO-00    LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NEA-00   NSAE-00 
      OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  CAEX-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00 
      ACE-00   P-00     SCT-00   SP-00    SSO-00   SS-00    STR-00 
      TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-01 
      G-00     SAS-00   SWCI-00    /008W 
                  ------------------388BA3  200659Z /38 
O 200609Z FEB 03 
FM AMEMBASSY VATICAN 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
INFO ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY 
EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY 
SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 
WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 VATICAN 000683 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR, EUR/WE-MENNUTI, NEA, S-KELLY AND GRAZE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2013 
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, PHUM, VT 
SUBJECT: SADDAM MEETING WITH CARDINAL ETCHEGARAY: VATICAN 
SEES "LAST CHANCE FOR DIPLOMACY" 
 
A PEACEMAKER, "WORKING INTENSELY TO PREVENT THE OUTBREAK OF 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        VATICA  00683  03 OF 03  200658Z 
CONFLICTS."  FOLLOWING ETCHEGARAY'S MISSION, THE HOLY SEE IS 
GUARDEDLY OPTIMISTIC THAT DISARMAMENT CAN BE ACHIEVED 
PEACEFULLY, AS THEY CAME AWAY WITH A SENSE THAT IRAQ NOW 
UNDERSTANDS IT NEEDS TO BE GENUINELY, AND NOT BEGRUDGINGLY, 
COLLABORATIVE.  WHILE THE ETCHEGARAY VISIT WAS THE HOLY SEE'S 
LAST, BEST SHOT AT CONVINCING SADDAM TO COMPLY, WE CAN EXPECT 
THE HOLY SEE TO CONTINUE TO PRESS ITS CASE PUBLICLY AND 
PRIVATELY THAT WAR SHOULD BE THE VERY LAST OPTION.  MOREOVER, 
THE HOLY SEE'S OWN "CONSTITUENT" INTERESTS -- THE PHYSICAL 
SAFETY OF MILLIONS OF CHRISTIANS LIVING IN MUSLIM COUNTRIES 
BOTH DURING AND AFTER THE WAR -- WILL BE A FOREMOST CONCERN. 
AT THE SAME TIME, THE HOLY SEE FULLY SHARES OUR ASSESSMENT OF 
THE DANGERS PRESENTED BY INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM AND OF AN 
UNFETTERED SADDAM ARMED WITH WMD.  THEY ARE INCREASINGLY 
CONCERNED WITH THE GROWING PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF TRANSATLANTIC 
DISUNITY AND OF A SPLIT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND THE VATICAN, 
GIVEN THEIR BELIEF THAT WE ARE ALL SEEKING THE SAME GOAL OF 
IRAQI DISARMAMENT. 
 
9. (C) ACTION REQUEST:  THE POPE MET WITH UN SECRETARY 
GENERAL KOFI ANNAN FEBRUARY 19 AND WILL MEET PRIME MINSTER 
BLAIR FEBRUARY 22.  WE EXPECT THE POPE WILL CONTINUE TO 
PURSUE EVERY OPPORTUNITY TO PRESS FOR A RESOLUTION THAT 
AVOIDS WAR.  THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE MEDIA SPECULATION 
ABOUT A POTENTIAL PAPAL EMISSARY TO WASHINGTON REFLECTING THE 
HOLY SEE'S DESIRE FOR GREATER CONTACT WITH WASHINGTON ON THE 
IRAQ ISSUE, BUT THE HOLY SEE HAS BEEN WARY OF BILATERALIZING 
THE CONFLICT BY SENDING EMISSARIES TO BAGHDAD AND WASHINGTON. 
 IN LIGHT OF THE HOLY SEE'S DESIRE TO TONE DOWN PERCEPTIONS 
OF CONFLICT WITH THE UNITED STATES AND ITS DESIRE TO CONTINUE 
PUSHING FOR PEACEFUL SOLUTIONS, EMBASSY STRONGLY BELIEVES 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        VATICA  00683  03 OF 03  200658Z 
THAT A MEETING BETWEEN A SENIOR USG OFFICIAL AND THE POPE 
WOULD SERVE TO REINFORCE OUR SHARED OBJECTIVE OF PEACEFUL 
IRAQI DISARMAMENT WHILE HELPING OVERCOME PERCEPTIONS OF 
DIVISION BETWEEN THE U.S. AND THE HOLY SEE AT THIS CRITICAL 
TIME. 
NICHOLSON 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
> 
 

 2003VATICA00683 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL