US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO280

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000280 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958:   DECL: 02/19/13 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, CE, Political Parties 
SUBJECT:  UNF government wins no-confidence vote with 
ease; President drawing closer to radical party 
 
Refs:  (A) Colombo 274; (B) Colombo 175 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador E. Ashley Wills.  Reasons 
1.5 (b,d). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  The UNF government won a February 18 
no-confidence vote with ease.  In other political 
developments:  President Kumaratunga continues to work 
toward forming an alliance with the radical JVP party 
and there are reports that she may call elections in the 
provinces soon to test GSL support.  Despite the 
Opposition's best efforts, however, the government 
appears to be in a relatively solid position at this 
time.  END SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------------- 
A Comfortable Win for the GSL 
----------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) The United National Front (UNF) governing 
coalition headed by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe 
won a February 18 no-confidence vote with ease.  The 
vote in Parliament was 126-84 in favor of the 
government.  (Note:  Parliament has 225 members, with 
113 votes needed for a majority.  Fourteen members were 
absent from the February 18 vote and the Speaker, per 
tradition, did not vote.)  In addition to the support of 
United National Party (UNP) MP's, all of the parties in 
the governing coalition voted with the UNF, including 
the tea estate Ceylon Worker's Congress (CWC) and the 
Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC).  The UNF also enjoyed 
the support of MP's from the Tamil National Alliance 
(TNA), a grouping that is not technically part of the 
governing coalition, but tends to vote with it. 
 
3.  (U) In winning the February 18 motion by a margin of 
42 votes, the government actually increased its margin 
of victory from the last no-confidence motion held in 
August 2002.  In that vote, the government won by 
127-92, a margin of 35 seats. 
 
--------------------- 
PA-JVP Talks Continue 
--------------------- 
 
4.  (C) The setback in Parliament was bad news for the 
Opposition.  Working together, President Kumaratunga's 
People's Alliance (PA) party and the radical Janantha 
Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party had moved the no- 
confidence motion on the basis that Defense Minister 
Tilak Marapana was mismanaging the security forces.  In 
doing so, PA and JVP MP's took the floor of Parliament 
on February 18 spouting hot invective toward the GSL's 
peace initiative, charging that the government was 
letting the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) push 
it around.  The effort clearly did not work:  the PA/JVP 
failed to wrench away any governing coalition partners, 
including the SLMC, despite the fact that the Muslim 
party has been lukewarm toward the peace process.  In 
addition, according to contacts, PA/JVP anti-peace 
process comments pushed the Tamil parties to vote with 
the GSL, overcoming any TNA doubts about the government 
sparked by recent tensions in the north and east 
(see Ref A). 
 
5.  (C) Despite the defeat, there is every indication 
that President Kumaratunga will continue to work with 
the JVP toward forming an alliance.  In the past several 
weeks, a number of meetings have been held between Sri 
Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and JVP leaders.  (Note:  The 
SLFP is the primary constituent element of the PA.)  The 
two sides have reportedly been working on a document 
outlining a political program for a PA/JVP alliance.  In 
a February 18 press report, Anura Bandaranaike, a senior 
PA MP and the president's brother, asserted that the 
alliance could be finalized and announced in the March 
timeframe.  Queried about these reports, M.L.A.M. 
Hizbullah, a Muslim MP aligned with the PA, told us that 
the president has not yet briefed PA members about the 
possibility of an alliance and he did not think any such 
grouping would be finalized soon.  (Note:  In a late 
January conversation with the Ambassador, Ronnie De Mel, 
a senior PA MP, also downplayed talk of a PA/JVP linkup 
-- see Ref B.) 
 
6.  (U) (((Note:  In a recent press interview, Lakshman 
Kadirgamar, a former Foreign Minister who is close to 
Kumaratunga, was quoted as confirming that the PA was 
working closely with the JVP, stating:  "These alliances 
are taking place all the time.  All governments do this. 
All oppositions do that...In that context, the JVP and 
the SLFP are talking, seeking to overthrow the 
government in a legitimate parliamentary exercise. 
Obviously, the bottom line is no violence."))) 
 
7.  (C) (((Note:  In other news involving cohabitation: 
the president's office publicly released a letter that 
Kumaratunga sent to the PM last week.  The letter hit 
out at the Prime Minister for allegedly hiring Japanese 
Special Envoy Akashi to be an "international adviser" 
for the government.  The letter asserted that this 
supposed action was contrary to Sri Lanka's sovereignty. 
The letter also criticized Milinda Moragoda, a key 
minister and associate of the PM, for allegedly being a 
U.S. puppet based on some of his recent comments.  In 
our estimation, the charge re the GSL and Akashi is 
baseless, and that involving Moragoda a canard.  End 
Note.))) 
 
-------------------------- 
Provincial Elections Soon? 
-------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Reports that the president might choose to call 
new parliamentary elections soon have diminished in the 
past several weeks.  The general feeling is that the PA 
does not want early national elections in the near-term 
because it would probably lose seats.  At this time, 
however, it seems possible that the president may call 
elections in the provinces soon to test GSL support. 
(Note:  Provincial elections are due to take place next 
year, but the president can call them earlier.)  The PA 
controls most of the provincial councils and there has 
been some talk that Kumaratunga might call elections in 
some areas where she thinks her party may be strong, 
such as the Southern Province.  (Note:  The PA has 
traditionally been quite strong in the mainly Sinhalese 
Buddhist south of the country.  The PA, however, seems 
disorganized in the Southern Province at this time, with 
one of its leading MP's from the area recently 
announcing that he would not support his party if 
provincial elections were called.)  (Note:  Local 
elections are also due in the north and east later this 
year.  These elections were postponed last year due to 
LTTE pressure.  The TNA would probably win most of the 
races, with the UNP winning a handful.  The PA and JVP 
are not major factors in the north and east.) 
 
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COMMENT 
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9.  (C) The government appears to be in a relatively 
solid position at this time.  Although the peace process 
has hit a rough patch and there are economic problems, 
the government still seems popular.  On the flip side, 
despite its best efforts, the Opposition -- especially 
the PA -- appears weak and virtually bereft of new 
ideas.  It is hard to imagine how linking up with the 
Sinhalese chauvinist JVP could help the PA. 
(Note:  Most observers believe the PA did not benefit 
from its late 2001 alliance with the JVP, for example.) 
That said, Sri Lankan politics are notoriously fluid and 
the government knows it cannot rest easy.  END COMMENT. 
10. (U) Minimize considered. 
 
WILLS