US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO274

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000274 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958:   DECL: 02/18/13 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PHUM, CE, NO, JA, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT:  Playing hardball, Tigers continue to ramp up 
the pressure in the north and the east 
 
Refs:  (A) Colombo 261; (B) 02 Colombo 1246 
 
(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  In the wake of recent incidents 
involving the military, the Tigers continue to ramp up 
the pressure in the north and the east by instigating 
numerous rallies and general strikes.  The GSL and 
monitors are working to calm the situation.  In a rare 
event, recent LTTE activities have put it at odds with a 
normally friendly Tamil party.  Through their latest 
mafia-type activities, the Tigers are clearly sending a 
message to the government that it should deal with the 
group very, very cautiously.  END SUMMARY. 
 
======================= 
Ramping Up the Pressure 
======================= 
 
2.  (C) The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) 
continue to ramp up the pressure in the north and the 
east.  Based on the LTTE's public announcements, the 
latest activities form the group's hard-line response to 
two recent incidents pitting LTTE cadre against the Sri 
Lankan military.  (Note:  The first of these incidents 
took place on February 7, and involved the interception 
of a LTTE arms resupply boat by the Sri Lankan navy. 
The second incident took place on February 12 when the 
Sri Lanka Army stopped LTTE cadre in Jaffna and ordered 
them not to wear military-type uniforms -- see Reftels. 
End Note.)  In protesting these incidents, the LTTE has 
sponsored the following major demonstrations and general 
strikes in the past several days: 
 
-- On February 14, several thousand Tamils marched in 
Jaffna town.  The march was basically peaceful, but 
there were several small clashes with police and the 
army.  The marchers presented a petition to the local 
SLMM office complaining about the military. 
 
-- On February 17, the LTTE called a general strike in 
Trincomalee District in the east.  Many shops were 
forced to close.  In addition to the two incidents 
reviewed above, demonstrators were also protesting the 
arrest of two LTTE cadre allegedly involved in 
recruitment in the Trincomalee area.  The two cadre were 
granted bail later in the day. 
 
-- On February 17, several hundred pro-LTTE 
demonstrators marched in Vavuniya, a town in the north- 
central part of the country. 
 
3.  (C) In addition to these large events, the LTTE has 
sponsored smaller anti-government rallies in other parts 
of the north and east.  In the meantime, according to 
contacts, the situation in Jaffna on February 18 is said 
to be tense, with the army and the police strongly in 
evidence.  The LTTE has also announced that it is 
sponsoring a general strike in Jaffna District on 
February 19.  Tamils are being asked to wear black 
armbands and to fly black flags during the strike. 
 
(Note:  The latest tensions seem to have no direct 
relation to an incident on February 16 in which a Sri 
Lankan army soldier was killed by LTTE gunfire while 
crossing into the group's territory on the Jaffna 
Isthmus.  The incident appears isolated, with the 
soldier apparently acting on his own.  The army is 
investigating.) 
 
=================================== 
GSL, Monitors try to Calm Situation 
=================================== 
 
4.  (C) In response to the LTTE's activities, the 
government and the Norwegian-run Sri Lanka Monitoring 
Mission (SLMM) are working hard to calm the situation. 
As touched on in Ref B, the GSL has announced that it is 
launching an investigation into the February 12 
incident, including reviewing the actions of the army 
and the police.  As for the monitors, Hagrup Haukland, 
the SLMM deputy, told us that the group was meeting with 
government and LTTE officials "multiple times every day" 
to ensure that both sides understood their 
responsibilities under the terms of the February 2002 
ceasefire accord.  Haukland allowed that the situation 
in the north and east was quite tense at this time, but 
said he hoped that SLMM efforts would help lower 
temperatures soon.  Haukland noted that the SLMM had 
been able to broker an understanding between the 
government and LTTE that Tiger cadre would not wear 
military-style belts in government-controlled areas.  At 
the same time, the GSL had agreed to contact the SLMM to 
report alleged Tiger transgressions and not to try to 
enforce the understanding on uniforms itself. 
 
============================== 
LTTE Tensions with Tamil Party 
============================== 
 
5.  (C) In a rare event, recent Tiger activities have 
put it at odds with a normally friendly Tamil party. 
According to contacts, many members of the Tamil United 
Liberation Front (TULF), a major constituent element of 
the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), are furious with the 
LTTE for its successful effort to postpone the reopening 
of the Jaffna library planned for February 14 (see 
Ref A).  Those who are said to be angry with the LTTE 
include V. Anandasangaree, the leader of TULF and a 
senior TNA MP.  Also at odds with the LTTE are the 
former mayor of Jaffna and the former TULF members of 
the Jaffna Municipal Council, all of whom resigned their 
positions on February 13 in reaction to the 
postponement.  (Note:  The resignations were largely 
symbolic, as the five-year terms for the mayoral and 
municipal council seats run out this week in any case.) 
In press statements, Anandasangaree and the other TULF 
officials have underlined that they wanted the library 
reopened as soon as possible and did not appreciate the 
LTTE's strong-arm efforts to cancel the February 14 
ceremony.  (Note:  It is not precisely clear why the 
LTTE did not want the library to reopen, but -- in line 
with its ongoing protests against the military -- the 
group apparently did not want any outward signs of GSL- 
Tamil amity at this time.) 
 
6.  (C) Commenting on the LTTE-TULF dustup, Kethesh 
Loganathan, an analyst at a local think-tank, told us 
that he was not sure how serious the split might turn 
out to be.  He commented that Anandasangaree has always 
been considered more independent of the LTTE than some 
other Tamil political leaders (also see Ref B on this 
point).  That said, he thought that Anandasangaree would 
be careful not to antagonize the LTTE too much given the 
group's reputation for retribution.  Loganathan went on 
to remark that the LTTE had to be careful to ensure that 
it did not alienate Tamil politicians, especially during 
the ongoing peace process when it needed to show the 
world a more moderate face.  (Note:  There are reports 
that the LTTE has asked major Tamil party leaders to 
visit the LTTE-controlled Wanni region later this month 
for discussions focused on the peace process.) 
 
======= 
COMMENT 
======= 
 
7.  (C) As reviewed in Reftels, the LTTE has been 
steadily expanding its influence in the north and east, 
often employing mafia-type tactics of intimidation and 
extortion in the process.  Through their strong-arm 
tactics in Jaffna and elsewhere of late, the Tigers are 
clearly sending a message to the government that it 
should deal with the group very, very cautiously.  It is 
not clear how long and how hard the LTTE intends to 
press the GSL and the military at this point, but most 
observers believe the group does not want to undermine 
the peace process.  At the same time, the Tigers will 
have noticed that they have provoked a bit of a backlash 
among Tamils, a development which may or may not cause 
the group to back off somewhat.  As for the GSL, it is 
being very careful not to allow the LTTE to provoke more 
incidents.  END COMMENT. 
 
8. (U) Minimize considered. 
WILLS