US embassy cable - 92KHARTOUM8788

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 08788 
 
 
CAIRO ALSO FOR ASST SECTY. COHEN 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR 
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, SU, SO 
SUBJECT: TFS 0001: SOMALIA: SUDANESE GOVERNMENT BEGINS 
TO REACT TO PROSPECTS FOR U.S. FORCES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD 
 
REF:  A. KHARTOUM OB?12 
      B. KHARTOUM OB?57 
      C. KHARTOUM 08766 
 
1.  IN WHAT THE GOVERNMENT CONTROLLED MEDIA HERE 
TERM "AN EXPRESSION OF ANXIETY," SUDAN'S HEAD OF 
STATE, LT. GEM. OMAR AL BASHIR, IN HIS DECEMBER 
2ND PRESS CONFERENCE, SAID HE HAS WORRIED ABOUT 
"THE SUDDEN ESCALATION OF THE CONFLICT IN 
SOMALIA AND THE U.N. DECISION TO SEND FORTY 
THOUSAND (SIC) U.S. FORCES TO THAT SMALL 
COUNTRY." 
 
2.  BASHIR EMPHASIZED THAT "SUCH A LARGE-SCALE 
FOREIGN INTERVENTION AT THE SIZE FIXED BY THE 
U.N. WILL AGGRAVATE THE PROBLEM..."  HE ALSO 
COMPLAINED THAT THE INTERVENTION IGNORES THE 
"EFFORTS WHICH ARE BEING EXERTED BY THE 
COUNTRIES OF THE HORN OF AFRICA..." WHICH HAD 
"RECEIVED POSITIVE RESPONSES FROM ALL THE 
CONFLICTING FACTIONS." 
 
3.  BASHIR ASSERTED THAT THE EFFORTS OF THE 
"COUNTRIES IN THE AREA COULD RESULT IN THE 
SOLUTION OF THE PROBLEM."  ACCORDING TO HIM, 
"SOMALIA HAS RECENTLY WITNESSED RELATIVE 
STABILITY DUE TO THE PEACE EFFORTS CARRIED OUT 
BY THE COUNTRIES OF THE HORN OF AFRICA."  HE 
CALLED FOR AVOIDING ESCALATION. 
 
4.  SUMMING UP, BASHIR SAID; "SUDAN VIEWED THE 
DISPATCH OF AMERICAN AND INTERNATIONAL FORCES TO 
SOMALIA...AS UNJUSTIFIED AND PART OF AN 
INTERNATIONAL CONSPIRACY AIMING FOR A MILITARY 
PRESENCE IN THE HORN OF AFRICA REGION, WHICH 
OVERLOOKS THE MOST IMPORTANT WATERWAY IN THE 
WORLD..." 
 
5.  IN NAIROBI, FOR TALKS ON CONTINUING SUDAN'S 
STALLED PEACE PROCESS, DELEGATION CHIEF AND 
MAJOR ISLAMIC FRONT FIGURE DR. ALI AL HAJ TOLD 
THE PRESS THAT THE MOVEMENT OF U.S. FORCES INTO 
SOMALIA "WOULD CAUSE INTERNATIONAL ANARCHY, 
NON-RESPECT OF NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY AND A NEW 
FORM OF IMPERIALISM." 
 
6.  COMMENT:  WE EXPECT SUDANESE ANXIETIES TO 
RISE EVEN MORE AS THE INTERVENTION UNFOLDS.  THE 
INTERPLAY OF STEADILY WORSENING RELATIONS WITH 
THE U.S. AND THE OTHER INDUSTRIAL DEMOCRACIES 
(AS WELL AS WITH SOME OF SUDAN'S NEIGHBORS) AND 
THE U.N'S CONDEMNATION OF SUDAN'S HUMAN RIGHTS 
ABUSES IS PRODUCING A CUMULATIVE ISOLATING 
EFFECT ON THIS HARD-LINE REGIME.  THE FOREIGN 
MINISTER'S VERY OUT OF STEP COMMENTS TO 
AMBASSADOR (REFTEL C) SHOW ALSO THE DISARRAY THE 
ACTION IS CAUSING INSIDE THE FRACTIOUS GOS. 
 
7.  AS REFTEL A REPORTS, THE SUDANESE PUBLIC IS 
REACTING, AT TIMES QUITE ILLOGICALLY, TO WHAT 
THEY SEE AS A CHANGE IN THE POLITICAL 
ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION.  REFTEL B GIVING 
MORE PRESS REACTION, RECORDS "THE MODERN SUDAN" 
FRETTING THAT; "THE INFLUX OF SUCH A HUGE NUMBER 
OF TROOPS WILL...EXPAND INTO AN ORGANIZED 
INVASION OF THE WHOLE REGION." 
 
8.  THE INCREASING INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE ON THE 
GOS, THE INTRODUCTION OF U.S. AND OTHER WESTERN 
FORCES INTO THE HORN, WHATEVER THEIR MISSION AND 
ITS STATED LIMITATIONS, AND THE CONTINUED WAVES 
OF RUMOR AND SUPPOSITION ABOUT GOVERNMENTAL 
SHIFTS HERE ARE TAKING A TOLL.  THE STREET RATE 
ON U.S. DOLLARS HAS MOVED UP QUICKLY THIS WEEK 
TO ONE HUNDRED SIXTY SUDANESE POUNDS FROM ONE 
FORTY-EIGHT AND DOLLARS ARE NOW VERY SCARCE.  WE 
EXPECT MORE OF THIS TO COME. 
 
 
PETTERSON