US embassy cable - 03AMMAN990

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000990 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA AND PRM; PLEASE PASS TO USAID 
SAN JOSE FOR USAID/OFDA GUY LAWSON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PREF, EAID, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: CARE IRAQ PROGRAM DIRECTOR:  MAINTENANCE OF FOOD 
RATIONS AND ELECTRICAL INFRASTRUCTURE KEY; LARGE POPULATION 
MOVEMENTS UNLIKELY 
 
Classified By: DCM Greg Berry, per 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  According to CARE Iraq Country Director 
Margaret Hassan (protect), the Iraqi population is "entirely 
dependent" on the OFF food ration system and has no economic 
resources to draw upon if the OFF pipeline is interrupted. 
Hassan also cautioned that Iraq's water/sanitation system and 
hence public health standards are entirely dependent on 
electricity.  Hassan advised that Iraq has a well-trained 
population that is fully capable of running a sophisticated 
infrastructure and humanitarian services network; NGOs 
seeking to provide services inside Iraq should play a 
supporting rather than supplanting role.  Hassan expects that 
very few Iraqis or TCNs would seek to leave Iraq in the event 
of a crisis, as Iraqis would either stay at home or seek 
refuge outside urban areas and most TCNs are well-integrated 
in Iraqi society and no more likely to flee than any other 
group.  End summary. 
 
2.  (C) CARE Iraq Country Director Margaret Hassan, a dual 
British-Iraqi national who has lived in Iraq for the last 
twenty years (please protect source) briefed PRM and 
USAID/OFDA officers and regional refcoord February 3 on 
current humanitarian conditions inside Iraq.  Hassan was in 
Amman en route between meetings in New York and Beirut, and 
was accompanied by CARE regional emergency coordinator Graham 
Miller.  With sixty employees, CARE is the largest 
international NGO working in central/southern Iraq.  The Iraq 
program is run by CARE UK. 
 
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Iraqi Population Impoverished, Dependent on OFF Rations 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
3.  (C) Hassan reported that, after 12 years of sanctions, 
the population of Iraq is "entirely dependent" on the UN's 
food ration system.  Any military action that would disrupt 
the food ration system would be a "complete disaster" as 
Iraqi citizens have no economic resources to fall back on in 
a crisis.  To illustrate her point, Hassan recounted a recent 
visit to the home of an Iraqi schoolteacher in Basra.  The 
teacher, who earns roughly seven U.S. dollars per month, had 
sold all of his belongings in order to augment his income. 
Hassan said the teacher had nothing -- not even a chair to 
offer his guest -- in his home.  When Hassan asked the 
teacher how he and his family would cope if his food rations 
were disrupted, he said the family would have no choice but 
to go hungry.  Hassan added that although the Iraqi 
government was now distributing two and sometimes even three 
months' of food rations in advance, the poorest Iraqis often 
sell those rations in order to buy basic household 
commodities. 
 
4.  (C) In addition, Hassan reported that the food ration 
system has distorted Iraq's natural economy.  Because the 
government-run OFF system brings into Iraq certain imported 
foods, local Iraqi merchants no longer are purchasing their 
own stocks of rice and flour.  Hassan therefore fears that if 
the OFF pipeline is disrupted, even Iraqis with money would 
not be able access certain types of food. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Sophisticated Infrastructure Dependent on Electricity 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
5.  (C) Hassan emphasized that Iraq is an urban society, 
entirely dependent on electricity for its wat/san and health 
sectors.  If Iraq's electrical system is disrupted, it will 
not be able to maintain its extensive water purification 
systems.  CARE's programs in Iraq have focused largely on 
improving public health by improving water quality; it works 
in "all" of Iraq's water treatment plants and hospitals. 
(NOTE:  Refcoord passed humanitarian mapping instructions to 
Hassan; we do not know whether CARE has submitted any 
information on its Iraq programs or installations.) 
 
6.  (C) Hassan also emphasized that Iraq has a large, 
well-organized and well-trained network of skilled 
professionals who are able to run the country's existing 
infrastructure in all sectors but especially in health and 
water and sanitation.  Any NGOs seeking to provide services 
in post-conflict Iraq should be prepared to play a 
supporting, rather than supplanting role in these areas. 
 
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Large Population Displacements Unlikely 
--------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Hassan expects that few Iraqis would seek refuge 
outside Iraq in the event of hostilities.  Noting that the 
Iraqi population has endured difficult conditions since the 
1990-91 Gulf War, she predicted that most Iraqis will either 
hunker down in their homes or seek refuge with friends or 
families outside urban centers.  Hassan also predicted that 
many of the one million Iraqis already internally displaced 
(some from the Iran-Iraq war, others from 1991) would remain 
in their current locations in the event of hostilities.  Most 
of these "displaced" Iraqis, Hassan said, are now permanently 
relocated and have no intention of returning to their 
previous residences. 
 
8.  (C) Hassan also expects that very few Egyptians or 
Palestinians resident in Iraq would try to leave Iraq in the 
event of hostilities.  Although there were three million 
Egyptian laborers resident in Iraq before the 1990-91 crisis, 
Hassan believes that there are now less than 100,000 
Egyptians resident in Iraq.  Of that population, most are 
very integrated into Iraqi society and unlikely to flee. 
Similarly, Hassan characterized the Palestinian population in 
Iraq as "very well integrated" and no more likely to flee 
Iraq than any other group.  She cautioned, however, that 
Palestinians resident in Iraq do not hold Iraqi citizenship 
and would most likely show up at borders without any 
documentation if they fled Iraq. 
GNEHM