US embassy cable - 03ROME618

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000618 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2008 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MOPS, ELAB, SO, PREL, MOPS, ELAB, SO, IT, ITPGOV 
SUBJECT: SOMALIA:  AN ITALIAN NGO'S PLAN B FOR PEACE 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: POL M C THOMAS COUNTRYMAN FOR REASON 1.5 (D) 
 
1.    (SBU) SUMMARY:  ANGELO MASETTI, SECRETARY OF A 
UNION-ORGANIZED GROUP THAT WORKS WITH SOMALIS IN ITALY, 
SHARED WITH POLOFF JANUARY 31 AN ALTERNATIVE VISION FOR 
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PAGE 02        ROME  00618  01 OF 02  141432Z 
ACHIEVING PEACE IN SOMALIA.  MASETTI OPINED THAT THE CURRENT 
PROCESS, BASED ON COOPERATION BY WARLORDS WHO PROFIT FROM THE 
STATUS QUO AND COORDINATED BY STATES WITH THEIR OWN AGENDA, 
WAS DOOMED TO FAILURE.  INSTEAD, HE ADVOCATED FORMING A 
STEERING COMMITTEE THAT WOULD SCRIPT A NATIONAL CONSTITUTION 
IN CONSULTATION WITH THE U.S., EU, AND UN, AND CONVENING 
CONFERENCES OF SOMALIS AT HOME AND ABROAD TO AGREE ON IT. 
THE PROPOSAL, WHICH THE GOI IS CONSIDERING SUPPORTING IN 
PART, IS IN ITS NASCENT STAGES AND MAY BE PRESENTED FORMALLY 
TO THE USG AS EVENTS WARRANT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.    (U) MASETTI, WHOSE FULL-TIME JOB IS COVERING MIGRATION 
POLICIES FOR THE UIL LABOR CONFEDERATION, REQUESTED A MEETING 
WITH POLOFF TO OUTLINE HIS GROUP'S STRATEGY IN THE EVENT THAT 
THE CURRENT PEACE PROCESS FAILS, LIKE ITS TWELVE 
PREDECESSORS.  MASETTI IS THE SECRETARY OF THE ITALY-SOMALIA 
FORUM FOR PEACE AND RECONSTRUCTION (ISF), AN NGO SPONSORED BY 
ITALY'S THREE MAIN TRADE UNION CONFEDERATIONS AS PART OF 
THEIR OUTREACH TO LOCAL IMMIGRANT COMMUNITIES.  THE ISF IS A 
"VERY INFORMAL VOLUNTEER ORGANIZATION" WITH NO OFFICE SPACE, 
ACCORDING TO MASETTI.  IT WAS FOUNDED IN NOVEMBER 2001 BY 
GIOVANNI CONSO (PRESIDENT EMERITUS OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL 
COURT), GIANNI DE MICHELIS (FORMER MINISTER OF LABOR), AND 
RINO SERRI (FORMER SENATOR AND UNDERSECRETARY OF FOREIGN 
AFFAIRS).  COMMENT:  MASETTI -- WHO IS OF ITALIAN AND SOMALI 
HERITAGE -- IS WELL AND FAVORABLY KNOWN TO THE EMBASSY, AND 
THE FOUNDERS ARE CONSIDERED TO BE CREDIBLE PEOPLE WITHOUT A 
PARTICULAR POLITICAL AGENDA.  END COMMENT. 
 
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"WE HAVE TO NEUTRALIZE THE WARLORDS" ... AND IGAD 
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PAGE 03        ROME  00618  01 OF 02  141432Z 
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3.    (U) MASETTI SHARED HIS VIEW THAT A RESOLUTION OF THE 
PROBLEM WOULD REQUIRE THE NEUTRALIZATION OF THE WARLORDS. 
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAD ERRED IN TRYING TO BUILD A 
SOLUTION ON WARLORD COOPERATION, FORGETTING THAT THE SOMALIS 
ARE OPPRESSED BY THE WARLORDS.  THE PREVIOUS TWELVE 
CONFERENCES HAD FAILED BECAUSE "EVERYTHING WAS LEFT IN THE 
HANDS OF THE WARLORDS AT THE END."  THERE HAD BEEN NO 
INTERNATIONAL MONITORING TO COMPEL DISARMAMENT OR CONTROL AID 
PROJECTS.  AFTER THE ARTA PEACE PROCESS, THE TRANSITIONAL 
NATIONAL GOVERNMENT WAS LEFT TO FEND FOR ITSELF, AND IN A 
YEAR, IT WAS CLEAR THAT THE ACCORD HAD FAILED. 
 
4.    (U) FOR THEIR PART, THE WARLORDS HAD NO PLANS TO CEDE 
POWER TO CIVIL STRUCTURES -- QUITE THE OPPOSITE.  "THE 
WARLORDS HAVE NO INTEREST IN PEACE AND ARE CONSTITUTIONALLY 
UNABLE TO MAKE PEACE.  HOW CAN YOU ASK A THIEF NOT TO STEAL 
ANY MORE? ...  THE WARLORDS STAND TO LOSE MORE THAN ANYONE 
FROM THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PEACE," MASETTI STATED.  HE 
BELIEVES THAT THE WARLORDS ONLY COOPERATE IN PEACEMAKING IN 
ORDER TO REAP THE BENEFITS OF AID PACKAGES PROVIDED 
IMMEDIATELY AFTER EACH ACCORD.  TO SAY THAT "POLITICAL 
LEADERS" ARE PRESENT AT ELDORET IS A MISNOMER, HE SAID, SINCE 
THESE PEOPLE ARE REALLY WARLORDS AND CLAN LEADERS, NOT 
POLITICIANS.  LIKEWISE, WHAT REMAINED OF SOMALI CIVIL SOCIETY 
MUST BE SUPPORTED BUT CANNOT BE VIEWED AS REPRESENTATIVE. 
 
5.    (U) GIVING A MAJOR ROLE TO IGAD IS ANOTHER KEY ERROR, 
MASETTI ASSERTED.  FIRST, IGAD MEMBERS ARE TOO WEAK TO LEAD A 
PEACE PROCESS.  SECOND, SOME OF THEM -- KENYA, DJIBOUTI, AND 
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PAGE 04        ROME  00618  01 OF 02  141432Z 
ETHIOPIA -- HAVE DIVERGENT INTERESTS AND VISIONS OF THE 
PREFERRED OUTCOME. 
 
------------------------------- 
DIASPORA COULD BE THE SOLUTION 
FOR DISARMAMENT AND PEACEMAKING 
------------------------------- 
 
6.    (U) ACCORDING TO MASETTI, MANY OF THE POTENTIAL 
PROTAGONISTS IN A PEACE AGREEMENT ARE ABROAD, THOUGH HE 
ADMITTED THAT EVEN WITH EXILES, "WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL, 
BECAUSE THE MENTALITY IS VERY FRACTIOUS," WITH SOMALIS 
TENDING TO PUT CLAN AND PRIVATE INTERESTS AHEAD OF NATIONAL 
ONES.  UNDAUNTED, THE ISF IS IN THE PROCESS OF NETWORKING TO 
CREATE A WORLD-WIDE ORGANIZATION TO REPRESENT SOMALI SOCIETY, 
AT HOME AND ABROAD, IN THE "NEXT PEACE CONFERENCE." 
 
7.    (U) THE SPECIFIC PLAN HAS TWO ASPECTS, DISARMAMENT AND 
PEACEMAKING.  THE BEST WAY TO DISARM THE WARLORDS IS TO RAISE 
A  SOMALI ARMY TRAINED AND READY TO DO SO, MASETTI SAID.  THE 
FLEDGLING NATIONAL ARMY WOULD BE CONSTITUTED ABROAD AND 
CALLED TO SOMALIA TO IMPLEMENT THE ACCORD UPON ITS 
COMPLETION.  TO ARRIVE AT A WORKABLE PEACE ACCORD, THE ISF 
PROPOSES HOLDING A YEAR-LONG SERIES OF MEETINGS OF SOMALIS IN 
EIGHT COUNTRIES:  THE USA, CANADA, UK, SWEDEN, THE 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8003 
 
PAGE 01        ROME  00618  02 OF 02  141432Z 
ACTION EUR-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   DODE-00  DOTE-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EAP-00   EB-00    FAAE-00  VC-00    TEDE-00 
      INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00 
      NSCE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00 
      ACE-00   P-00     SCT-00   SP-00    IRM-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00 
      ECA-00   PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-01   G-00     NFAT-00 
      SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------364F76  141432Z /38 
R 141345Z FEB 03 
FM AMEMBASSY ROME 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8271 
INFO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
IGAD COLLECTIVE 
CIA WASHDC 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 000618 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2008 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MOPS, ELAB, SO, IT 
SUBJECT: SOMALIA:  AN ITALIAN NGO'S PLAN B FOR PEACE 
 
NETHERLANDS, ITALY, SOMALIA, AND AUSTRALIA.  EACH MEETING 
WOULD DISCUSS AND PROPOSE AMENDMENTS TO A DRAFT CONSTITUTION 
TO BE DRAWN UP BY A STEERING COMMITTEE IN CONSULTATION WITH 
THE U.S., EU, AND UN.  FINALLY, A REPRESENTATIVE GROUP OF 
150-200 DELEGATES FROM THE NATIONAL MEETINGS WOULD MEET TO 
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PAGE 02        ROME  00618  02 OF 02  141432Z 
FORM A PROVISIONAL NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TO FINALIZE THE 
CONSTITUTION.  THE PROPOSAL BE WOULD BUDGETED AT 1-1.5M EURO. 
 THIS PLAN WOULD HAVE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF EMPOWERING 
INTELLECTUALS AND TECHNOCRATS, WHO WOULD THEN BE BETTER 
PREPARED TO WORK ON POLITICAL AND SOCIAL RECONSTRUCTION 
AFTERWARDS.  THE WARLORDS COULD PARTICIPATE IN THE PROCESS 
BUT ONLY ON THE SAME TERMS AS EVERYBODY ELSE (WHEREAS "NOW 
THEY'RE IN CHARGE").  AT THE CONCLUSION, THEY WOULD BE FORCED 
TO ACCEPT THE ACCORD OR BECOME OUTLAWS TO BE FORCIBLY 
DISARMED AND PERHAPS TRIED. 
 
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NEXT STEPS TOWARD AN "INTELLIGENT SOLUTION;" MFA RESPONSE 
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8.    (C) MASETTI STRESSED THAT THE ISF IS NOT AGAINST 
ELDORET.  IT HOPES THAT ELDORET WILL SUCCEED BUT WANTS TO 
BEGIN WORK ON A FALLBACK PLAN IN CASE IT DOES NOT.  MASETTI 
HAD PRESENTED THE ISF'S PROPOSAL TO THE MFA, BUT "THE 
FARNESINA (MFA) IS LOYAL TO ELDORET," HE OBSERVED.  IN A 
FEBRUARY 12 TELCON, MFA OFFICE DIRECTOR FOR EAST AFRICAN 
AFFAIRS PAOLA IMPERIALE SAID THAT THE MFA IS STUDYING THE 
PROPOSAL.  IMPERIALE SAID THAT THE MFA WAS IN FACT INTERESTED 
IN SUPPORTING A MEETING OF SOMALI EXILES IN ITALY IF THE ISF 
COULD HOLD IT IN SUPPORT OF ELDORET, NOT IN COMPETITION TO 
IT.  (ITALIAN LAW DOES NOT PERMIT THE MFA TO FUND MEETINGS 
FOR EXILES IN OTHER COUNTRIES.)  HOWEVER, THE MFA QUESTIONED 
THE PLAN TO HAVE EXILES CONSTITUTE A MAJORITY IN THE NATIONAL 
ASSEMBLY.  "DO YOU THINK ITALIANS WOULD ACCEPT IT IF AN 
ASSEMBLY DOMINATED BY ITALIAN AMERICANS AND ITALIAN BRITONS 
WERE TO DECIDE ON ITS CONSTITUTION?" SHE ASKED. 
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PAGE 03        ROME  00618  02 OF 02  141432Z 
 
9.    (U) MASETTI BELIEVES THAT "CONSTANT CONSULTATION WITH 
THE U.S., EU, AND UN" IS THE "WISEST WAY TO PROCEED."  HE 
HOPES TO PARTICIPATE IN AN ONGOING EXCHANGE OF INFORMATION 
WITH THE USG BUT IS NOT YET AT THE POINT OF REQUESTING 
CONSULTATIONS IN WASHINGTON OR BACKING.  HE DID, HOWEVER, 
MENTION THAT VISA FACILITATION WOULD BE APPRECIATED, AS TWO 
MEMBERS OF HIS ORGANIZATION WERE PLANNING A MISSION TO THE 
STATES TO CONSULT WITH SOMALI EXILES THERE ON THE PLAN.  IF 
THE ISF DEVELOPS POLITICAL SUPPORT FOR ITS PLAN, IT WILL ASK 
THE US AND EU FOR FUNDING. 
 
10.  (SBU)  COMMENT:  MASETTI'S PLAN SEEMS STARRY-EYED IN 
SEVERAL ASPECTS, NOT LEAST THE IDEA THAT AN ARMY DRAWING ON 
SOMALIS IN DIVERSE COUNTRIES COULD BE TRAINED AND EQUIPPED IN 
EXILE TO PARACHUTE IN AT THE MOMENT OF NEED.  NONETHELESS, 
MASETTI HIMSELF, AS WELL AS ISF'S FOUNDERS, ARE SERIOUS 
INDIVIDUALS WITH GOOD INTENT.  WE REPORT THE IDEA AGAINST THE 
DAY THE GROUP REQUESTS MEETINGS IN WASHINGTON FOR FURTHER 
CONSULTATIONS.  THE PROPOSAL WILL BE E-MAILED TO AF/E. 
SEMBLER 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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 2003ROME00618 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL