US embassy cable - 92ZAGREB2592

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 02592 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY - JACKOVICH 
- 
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE 
- 
E.O. 12356:  DECL: OADR 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PREL, HR, War Crimes 
SUBJECT: CGYOOL:  PRES. TUDJMAN SAYS HE IS UNWILLING 
-        TO EXTEND UNPROFOR WHILE IT IS UNSUCCESSFUL; 
-        EXPLAINS BOBETKO/MLADIC MEETING 
 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  AT HIS MONTHLY PRESS CONFERENCE PRESIDENT TUDJMAN 
SAID IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS EXTENDING UNPROFOR'S 
MANDATE.  HE EXPLAINED GENERAL BOBETKO'S MEETING WITH 
GENERAL MLADIC AS AIMED AT STOPPING ATTACKS ON CROATIA 
AND DENYING BELGRADE'S ALLEGATIONS THAT CROATIA HAD 
18 OR 19 BRIGADES IN B-H.  HE SAID IT WAS GENERAL 
MORILLON'S FAULT THAT, CONTRARY TO CROATIA'S 
EXPECTATIONS, HVO AND B-H GOV'T FORCE LEADERS HAD NOT 
ATTENDED THE TALKS.  HE DENIED THAT AN INCREASED ALERT 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02592  01 OF 02  041905Z 
STATUS BY SOME CROATIAN FIRMS SUGGESTED A GENERAL FEAR 
THAT WAR WAS ABOUT TO BREAK OUT AGAIN IN CROATIA.  HE 
REMAINED TIGHTLIPPED ABOUT HIS WEEKEND TALKS WITH 
GENEVA NEGOTIATORS VANCE AND OWEN.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------- 
ON UNPROFOR AND WAR 
------------------- 
                    . 
2.  AT HIS DECEMBER 1 PRESS CONFERENCE, PRESIDENT      . 
TUDJMAN SAID IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS PROLONGATION 
OF THE UNPROFOR MANDATE.  "WE HAVE PUT FORTH OUR 
REQUESTS (TO UNPROFOR).  ...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO 
DISCUSS WHAT WILL HAPPEN AFTER THE EXPIRATION OF 
UNPROFOR'S MANDATE.  IN ANY CASE, CROATIA IS NOT 
WILLING TO PROLONG UNPROFOR'S MANDATE WHILE IT IS NOT 
FULFILLING ITS TASKS."  HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT HE HAD 
MET CONFIDENTIALLY WITH GENEVA NEGOTIATORS VANCE AND 
OWEN IN CROATIA OVER THE NOV 28-29 WEEKEND TO DISCUSS 
UNPROFOR AND THE CONTINUING CRISIS IN THE FORMER 
YUGOSLAVIA, BUT HE PROVIDED NO DETAILS.  LATER, HE 
SAID VANCE AND OWEN HAD TOLD THE SERBS IN SECTOR EAST 
AND KNIN THAT THE SO-CALLED KRAJINA IS PART OF 
CROATIA AND THAT SOLUTIONS TO THE QUESTION OF SERBIAN 
MINORITIES MUST BE FOUND WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF 
CROATIAN LAW.  REPRESENTATIVES OF UNPROFOR, ACCORDING 
TO THE PRESIDENT, HAVE CONCLUDED THAT "THE VANCE PLAN 
HAS BEEN CALLED INTO QUESTION" BY SERBIAN REFUSAL TO 
COOPERATE AND THAT "STEPS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO HAVE 
UNPROFOR IMPLEMENT IT." 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  02592  01 OF 02  041905Z 
3.  TUDJMAN WAS ASKED WHETHER AN INCREASED ALERT 
STATUS IMPLEMENTED BY SOME CROATIAN FIRMS INDICATED A 
WIDESPREAD FEAR THAT WAR WOULD BREAK OUT AGAIN IN 
CROATIA.  TUDJMAN BLAMED THIS ON THE "OVER-ZEALOUSNESS 
OF CERTAIN PEOPLE" WHO HAD LEARNED THAT BOSNIAN SERB 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  02592  02 OF 02  041906Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AID-01   CA-02    CIAE-00  C-01     DODE-00  CISA-02 
      DS-00    HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   IO-19    L-03 
      ADS-00   MFLO-03  M-01     NSAE-00  OCS-06   OIC-02   OMB-01 
      PA-02    PC-05    PM-02    PRS-01   P-01     SCT-03   SDEL-00 
      SNP-00   SP-00    SR-00    SSO-00   SS-00    TRSE-00  T-01 
      USIE-00  ASDS-01  FMP-00   RPE-00     /069W 
                  ------------------823325  041908Z /38 
P 031841Z DEC 92 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2957 
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
AMEMBASSY ANKARA 
AMEMBASSY ATHENS 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MADRID 
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 
AMEMBASSY VIENNA 
USMISSION USNATO 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USMISSION USVIENNA 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  02592  02 OF 02  041906Z 
 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// 
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// 
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// 
USEC BRUSSELS 
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1179 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 02592 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY - JACKOVICH 
- 
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE 
- 
E.O. 12356:  DECL: OADR 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, HR 
SUBJECT: CGYOOL:  PRES. TUDJMAN SAYS HE IS UNWILLING 
-        TO EXTEND UNPROFOR WHILE IT IS UNSUCCESSFUL; 
-        EXPLAINS BOBETKO/MLADIC MEETING 
 
FORCES HAD BEGUN TO MOVE ROCKETS AND FEARED THEY WERE 
BEING TARGETTED ON CROATIAN CITIES.  TUDJMAN SAID HE 
DIDN'T THINK THERE WAS ANY CHANCE THE WAR WOULD START 
AGAIN IN CROATIA "UNDER THE PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES, 
...REALISTICALLY, THERE ISN'T ANY POSSIBILITY OF THE 
RENEWAL OF ANY WAR OPERATIONS IN CROATIA." 
 
----------------------------- 
WILL THE BALKAN WAR SPREAD... 
----------------------------- 
 
4.  TUDJMAN ACKNOWLEDGED THE RISK OF WAR SPREADING 
BEYOND THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA.  HE EXPRESSED 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02592  02 OF 02  041906Z 
DISAPPOINTMENT THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAD 
ALLOWED SERBIAN AGGRESSION TO GO ON FOR TOO LONG. 
"OF COURSE, THE WORLD IS ENGAGED A LITTLE BIT, BUT IN 
THE SAME WAY IT IS SOMEWHAT LOOKING FOR AN ALIBI, 
LIKE WITH HUMANITARIAN AID IN RELATION TO THE MAIN 
PROBLEM...AGGRESSION IN (B-H)." 
 
------------------------------------------- 
BIGGER UNPROFOR, AIR STRIKES, CARROT/STICKS 
------------------------------------------- 
 
5.  THE PRESIDENT'S PRESCRIPTION FOR RESOLVING THE 
CONFLICTS IN CROATIA AND B-H WAS A COMBINATION OF 
CONTINUED INTERNATIONAL HELP AND DOMESTIC MEASURES. 
HE SAID THE MOST THAT COULD BE EXPECTED FROM THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WAS THE SECURITY COUNCIL'S 
SANCTIONING DEPLOYMENT OF A LARGER PEACEKEEPING FORCE 
"WITH THE PURPOSE OF PREVENTING FURTHER AGGRESSION, 
ALONG WITH THE USE OF AIR FORCES."  HE ADDED THAT HE 
AGREED WITH THOSE WHO ARGUED THAT AIR STRIKES ON "THE 
AGGRESSOR'S VITAL INSTALLATIONS WOULD SUFFICE TO 
TERMINATE FURTHER AGGRESSION." 
 
6.  TUDJMAN SAID CROATIA IS TRYING TO RESOLVE ITS 
PROBLEMS WITH THE SERBIA MINORITY BY CONSTITUTIONAL 
MEANS, BY RESPECTING HUMAN RIGHTS STANDARDS, CREATING 
TWO ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS FOR SERBS (GLINA AND 
KNIN), AND PASSING AN AMNESTY LAW FOR THOSE NOT 
ACCUSED OF WAR CRIMES.  THE PRESIDENT SAID THAT, ON 
THE OTHER HAND, THE COUNTRY'S NEW ANTI-TERRORIST LAW 
WOULD BE USED AGAINST THOSE WHO CONTINUED SUBVERSIVE 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  02592  02 OF 02  041906Z 
ACTIVITIES DESIGNED TO BRING DOWN THE STATE. 
 
NEITZKE 
 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN