US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB347

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000347 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (NARDI) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, HR, PGOV, HR, IZ, IZPREL, UN 
SUBJECT: IRAQ: BUCKING UP THE WEAK-KNEED CROATIANS 
 
REF: ZAGREB 338 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR LAWRENCE ROSSIN FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) 
 
SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) CROATIA'S INITIAL SUPPORT FOR THE USG POSITION ON 
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IRAQ IS WAVERING UNDER PRESSURE FROM EU COUNTRIES AS THE GOC 
PREPARES TO PRESENT ITS APPLICATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP. 
PUBLIC OPINION AGAINST ACTION IN IRAQ WITHOUT NEW UNSC 
SANCTION IS ALSO A STRONG FACTOR AS PM RACAN TRIES TO KEEP A 
SHAKY COALITION TOGETHER.  ON FEBRUARY 13, ONE DAY AFTER PM 
RACAN CALLED THE RECENT VILNIUS-10 STATEMENT "OPEN TO 
INTERPRETATION," THE AMBASSADOR DELIVERED A STRONG MESSAGE TO 
THE FOREIGN MINISTRY: THE REAL ISSUE IS NOT HOW THE EU 
INTERPRETS CROATIA'S STATEMENTS, BUT HOW THE WORLD REMOVES 
THE THREAT OF SADDAM HUSSEIN'S WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. 
LATER ON FEBRUARY 13 (BUT INDEPENDENT OF THE AMBASSADOR'S 
MESSAGE), PM RACAN RELEASED A MORE APPROPRIATE STATEMENT (SEE 
TEXT AT PARA 9 BELOW) CALLING FOR FULL IRAQI COMPLIANCE WITH 
UNSCR 1441 TOGETHER WITH AN APPEAL FOR A UNIFIED POSITION 
WITHIN THE EU AND BETWEEN THE EU AND THE USG.  IT SEEMS CLEAR 
TO US THAT THE GOC BELIEVES THAT SOME EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ARE 
READY TO HOLD CROATIA'S EU APPLICATION HOSTAGE TO GOC 
BEHAVIOR ON IRAQ.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) ON FEBRUARY 12, PM RACAN TOLD THE PRESS THAT THE 
FEBRUARY 5 STATEMENT SIGNED BY THE FOREIGN MINISTERS OF ALL 
"VILNIUS 10" COUNTRIES WAS "IMPRECISE ... AND OPEN TO 
INTERPRETATION" (REFTEL).  ABSENT CLEAR LEADERSHIP, THE 
PUBLIC DEBATE IN CROATIA HAS FOCUSED NOT ON THE THREAT POSED 
BY SADDAM HUSSEIN'S REGIME AND ITS WEAPONS OF MASS 
DESTRUCTION, BUT ON WHETHER OR NOT FM PICULA SHOULD HAVE 
SIGNED THE V-10 STATEMENT AND HOW CROATIA'S BID FOR EU 
MEMBERSHIP WILL BE AFFECTED BY ITS POSITION ON IRAQ. 
 
3.  (C) ON FEBRUARY 13, THE AMBASSADOR SOUGHT AN EARLY 
MEETING WITH THE FOREIGN MINISTRY TO GET THE GOC TO REFOCUS 
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ITS ENERGY ON THE MORE IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF THIS ISSUE.  WITH 
ASSISTANT FOREIGN MINISTER NOBILO, HE PRESSED FOR THE GOC TO 
"GET OFF THE FENCE;" PM RACAN'S STATEMENT ON FEBRUARY 12 WAS 
EQUIVOCAL AND LOOKED LIKE CROATIA WAS BACKING AWAY FROM THE 
V-10 STATEMENT.  WHAT WAS CROATIA'S POLICY, ANYWAY? 
 
4.  (C) NOBILO SAID THAT CROATIA IS NOT BACKING AWAY FROM THE 
V-10 STATEMENT, BUT IS TRYING TO ADDRESS THE PERCEPTION IN 
THE PUBLIC AND IN POLITICAL CIRCLES THAT THE GOC WAS HURRIED 
INTO SIGNING THE STATEMENT AND HAD MADE A BINDING COMMITMENT 
TO SUPPORT MILITARY ACTION.  HE APPEALED TO THE AMBASSADOR 
FOR "PATIENCE AND UNDERSTANDING" AS THE GOC IS IN A DELICATE 
SITUATION.  THE GOC IS IN THE FINAL STAGES OF SUBMITTING ITS 
APPLICATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP; THE REACTION OF THE EU COULD 
HAVE POLITICAL REPERCUSSIONS FOR THE CURRENT COALITION 
GOVERNMENT, WHICH IS ALREADY ON SHAKY GROUND IN AN ELECTION 
YEAR.  NOBILO SAID THAT THE GOC POSITION WOULD BE "CLARIFIED" 
BY A STATEMENT TO BE RELEASED LATER IN THE DAY FOLLOWING A 
CABINET MEETING THEN UNDERWAY. 
 
5.  (C) THE AMBASSADOR SAID WE WOULD LOOK AT THE STATEMENT 
CAREFULLY AND WOULD BE BACK IN TOUCH, BUT WARNED THAT THE 
ABSENCE OF FORTHRIGHT GOC LEADERSHIP ON THE REAL ISSUE AT 
STAKE -- DISARMING SADDAM -- IS ALLOWING THE PUBLIC DEBATE TO 
GET OFF TRACK.  THE AMBASSADOR SAID HE WAS DISAPPOINTED; THIS 
IS ONE OF THE TIMES IN HISTORY WHEN NATIONS MUST TAKE A 
STAND; CROATIA TOOK A STRONG STAND WHEN IT SIGNED UP TO THE 
V-10 STATEMENT; NOW IT WAS WEAKENING. 
 
6.  (C) NOBILO WAS EXPLICIT ABOUT EU PRESSURE, EXPLAINING 
THAT THE GOC IS UNDER HEAVY PRESSURE FROM "OPPONENTS" OF THE 
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U.S. ON IRAQ (HE DID EVERYTHING BUT SAY FRANCE AND GERMANY BY 
NAME).  THE "BIG" EU STATES HAVE WARNED THEM THAT THE 
"INCOMING COUNTRIES ARE BEING PERCEIVED AS TROUBLEMAKERS" AND 
SAID THAT CROATIA MUST BE CAREFUL NOT TO HURT PROSPECTS FOR 
ITS APPLICATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP, WHICH IT PLANS TO SUBMIT 
NEXT WEEK.  NOBILO SAID THAT THE STATEMENT WOULD NOT WEAKEN 
THE V-10'S CALL FOR IRAQ TO DISARM, BUT WOULD ALSO MAKE A 
PLEA FOR UNITY WITHIN THE EU AND A UNIFIED POSITION ON IRAQ 
THROUGHOUT THE NORTH ATLANTIC COMMUNITY. 
 
7.  (C) NOBILO REPEATED HIS PLEA FOR PATIENCE; HE EXPECTS 
THAT AFTER THE NEXT BLIX REPORT TO THE UNSC, THE EU COUNCIL 
OF MINISTERS MEETING NEXT WEEK AND CROATIA'S SUBMISSION OF 
ITS APPLICATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP, THE GOC WILL BE MORE 
RESPONSIVE.  THE AMBASSADOR WARNED THAT CROATIA NEEDS TO MAKE 
UP ITS OWN MIND; THE LACK OF EU UNITY WOULD CERTAINLY 
CONTINUE PAST NEXT MONDAY; THE TIME FOR ACTION WAS SHORT. 
 
8.  (C) THE STATEMENT AS RELEASED AFTER THE FEBRUARY 13 
CABINET MEETING SEEMS TO REPRESENT ACCURATELY THE CROATIAN 
GOVERNMENT'S MUDDLED UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT IS IMPORTANT.  IT 
CALLS FOR FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF UNSCR 1441 AND DECLARES THAT 
IRAQI BEHAVIOR WILL DETERMINE "WHETHER THIS CRISIS WILL END 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3663 
 
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ACTION EUR-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AMAD-00  CIAE-00  INL-00   DODE-00  PERC-00 
      DS-00    FBIE-00  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01 
      VCE-00   NEA-00   DCP-01   NSAE-00  OIC-02   IRM-00   SSO-00 
      SS-00    EPAE-00  DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-01   NFAT-00  SAS-00 
      SWCI-00    /005W 
                  ------------------35BF39  131647Z /38 
O 131645Z FEB 03 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9460 
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 000347 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (NARDI) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, UN, HR, IZ 
SUBJECT: IRAQ: BUCKING UP THE WEAK-KNEED CROATIANS 
 
IN PEACE OR WAR."  BUT THEN THE STATEMENT DRIFTS OFF INTO 
CALLS FOR UNITY WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNION AND FOR A UNIFIED 
APPROACH BETWEEN THE EU AND THE U.S.  THE AMBASSADOR IS 
CONTACTING NOBILO TO URGE THAT THE GOC GET ITS FOCUS BACK ON 
THE REAL ISSUE AND OFF OF ITS HAND-WRINGING. 
 
9.  (U) BEGIN TEXT OF INFORMAL EMBASSY TRANSLATION OF 
FEBRUARY 13 GOC STATEMENT ON IRAQ: 
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GOC POSITION ON IRAQI CRISIS 
 
CROATIA IS AN ACTIVE MEMBER OF THE ANTI-TERRORIST COALITION 
AND HAS SINCE ITS CREATION SOUGHT TO CONTRIBUTE TO ITS 
EFFECTIVENESS ACCORDING TO ITS OWN ABILITIES, ESPECIALLY 
WITHIN OUR REGION.  THROUGHOUT THE YEARS CROATIAN DIPLOMACY 
HAS CONSISTENTLY AND ACTIVELY WORKED ON BANNING, CONTROLLING 
AND DESTROYING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. 
 
ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS CROATIA HAS CLEARLY CALLED ON IRAQ TO 
COOPERATE FULLY AND UNCONDITIONALLY WITH UN INSPECTORS AND TO 
COMPLY WITH ALL REQUIREMENTS FROM UN SECURITY COUNCIL 
RESOLUTIONS, ESPECIALLY THOSE PERTAINING TO THE 
IDENTIFICATION AND DESTRUCTION OF WEAPONS OF MASS 
DESTRUCTION.  CROATIA HAS ITS INSPECTORS IN THE UN TEAM AND 
HAS IN THAT MANNER AND OTHERWISE SOUGHT TO CONTRIBUTE TO 
PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF THIS CRISIS. 
 
CONSISTENT WITH THAT POLICY AND BASED ON ITS FULL SUPPORT TO 
UNSC RESOLUTION 1441, CROATIA HAS JOINED IN A NUMBER OF 
INTERNATIONAL INITIATIVES FOR A PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF THE 
IRAQI CRISIS. THE STATEMENT SIGNED BY THE FOREIGN MINISTERS 
OF THE VILNIUS GROUP COUNTRIES CONSTITUTES A FORM OF 
ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON IRAQ TO COMPLY WITH UNSC RESOLUTIONS 
REGARDING COOPERATION WITH UN INSPECTORS AND DESTRUCTION OF 
THE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, WHICH WAS CROATIA'S PRIMARY 
MOTIVE WHEN JOINING THE STATEMENT IN SOLIDARITY. 
 
AS A NATO CANDIDATE AND A COUNTRY SCHEDULED TO APPLY FOR EU 
MEMBERSHIP IN THE COMING DAYS, CROATIA IS PARTICULARLY 
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INTERESTED IN SEEING THE STRENGTHENING OF JOINT EU POLICIES 
ON FOREIGN AND SECURITY MATTERS.  THAT IS WHY CROATIA JOINED 
THE FEBRUARY 4 EU PRESIDENCY DEMARCHE ON IRAQ.  CROATIA 
THEREFORE HOPES THAT THE UPCOMING EXTRAORDINARY MEETING OF 
THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL WILL RESULT IN A MUCH-NEEDED CONSENSUS 
ON WAYS TO RESOLVE THE IRAQI CRISIS.  WE ARE EQUALLY 
INTERESTED IN THE PRESERVATION AND SOLIDIFICATION OF THE 
POLITICAL UNITY AND TOGETHERNESS OF THE EURO-ATLANTIC REGION. 
 STABLE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE E.U. AND THE U.S. - I.E. WITHIN 
THE EURO-ATLANTIC PARTNERSHIP - IS THE BEST GUARANTEE OF 
PEACE AND STABILITY FOR THE INTERNATIONAL ORDER, BUT ALSO FOR 
EFFECTIVE STRUGGLE AGAINST TERRORISM.  EURO-ATLANTIC DIALOGUE 
IS ALSO NEEDED IN ORDER TO EXAMINE AND CONTROL ALL POSSIBLE 
ASPECTS OF RESOLVING THE IRAQI CRISIS. 
 
CITIZENS OF CROATIA HIGHLY VALUE PEACE AND PEACEFUL POLITICAL 
MEANS FOR RESOLVING PROBLEMS, BECAUSE THEY KNOW VERY WELL 
ABOUT THE HORRORS OF WAR AND DESTRUCTION.  THAT'S WHY CROATIA 
IS PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN RESOLVING THE CRISIS WITHOUT 
WAR.  STANDING ON ITS PRINCIPLES OF PLEADING FOR WAR AND 
STABILITY IN THE WORLD, AS WELL AS FOR THE UNDISPUTABLE ROLE 
OF THE U.N., CROATIA CONTINUES TO BELIEVE THAT NOT ALL MEANS 
FOR PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF THE IRAQI CRISIS HAVE BEEN 
EXHAUSTED. THE GOVERNMENT OF CROATIA WARNS THAT IT DEPENDS ON 
IRAQI BEHAVIOR WHETHER THIS CRISIS WILL END IN PEACE OR WAR. 
THAT IS WHY WE ARE ONCE AGAIN CALLING ON IRAQ TO FULLY AND 
IMMEDIATELY COMPLY WITH U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION 
1441.  AT THE SAME TIME, WE EXPRESS BELIEF THAT EVERY 
POSSIBLE MEANS OF RESOLVING THIS CRISIS MUST BE ASSESSED WITH 
REGARD TO WHETHER IT EXPANDS OR NARROWS THE GROUNDS OF 
TERRORISM.  TAKING ALL THIS INTO CONSIDERATION, THE 
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GOVERNMENT OF CROATIA APPEALS TO THE U.S., EU MEMBER 
COUNTRIES, AND OTHER MEMBERS OF TH 
E ANTI-TERRORIST COALITION TO REACH WITHIN THE U.N. SECURITY 
COUNCIL THE MUCH- NEEDED CONSENSUS AND UNITY IN FUTURE 
ACTIVITIES ON RESOLVING THE IRAQI CRISIS. 
 
END TEXT. 
ROSSIN 
 
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