US embassy cable - 03RANGOON194

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000194 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, EB/ODF, AND IO 
STATE PASS AID/ANE 
TOKYO PLEASE PASS DAS DALEY 
PHNOM PENH FOR AID - CAROL JENKINS 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2012 
TAGS: EAID, SOCI, ECON, BM, Economy, Human Rights 
SUBJECT: UN SEES LOOMING HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN BURMA 
 
REF: RANGOON 71 
 
Classified By: COM CARMEN MARTINEZ FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: The UN country team in Burma has painted a 
stark picture of the nation's humanitarian situation.  It has 
also forecast dire consequences for Burma's poor, and for 
regional stability, if the situation is not addressed 
quickly.  The UNDP Resident Representative in Rangoon will 
present the country team's findings during the upcoming Tokyo 
meetings.  Resolution of these problems, and the prevention 
of a full-blown crisis, depend first and foremost on a more 
responsible and responsive government.  However, there are 
ways to make marginal improvements and to perhaps delay the 
onset of crisis.  As it has with the fight against HIV/AIDS 
here, the U.S. government should consider contributing to 
this effort.  End summary. 
 
Humanitarian Crisis in the Making 
 
2. (C) During the upcoming Tokyo meetings on Burma, the UNDP 
Resident Representative in Rangoon plans to deliver a dire 
assessment of the humanitarian situation facing Burma.  The 
assessment stems from a recently completed UN report entitled 
"A Review of the Humanitarian Situation in Myanmar." 
According to the report, Burma's persistent consumer price 
inflation (estimated by the Embassy at about 60 percent in 
2002, with higher levels for key staples), combined with the 
serious erosion of basic social services (for example, the 
GOB has budgeted only $25,000 for fighting HIV/AIDS), have 
put the country's poorest people on the precipice of 
disaster.  The UN report is the first of two volumes; the 
second will include some "quick impact" project proposals and 
go into the country-specific problems of delivering and 
monitoring humanitarian assistance in Burma. 
 
3. (C) The results of the malignant combination of inflation 
and poor social services, according to the report, are 
increasing poverty, landlessness, food insecurity, spreading 
disease (especially TB, malaria, and HIV), and a 
deterioration in the country's education system.  These 
factors are not felt equally across the country, hitting 
particularly hard ethnic minorities residing in remote border 
areas and peri-urban slum dwellers.  The report recognizes 
rapidly expanding disparities between urban, peri-urban, and 
rural populations. 
 
4. (C) The report also stresses how symptoms combine to 
exacerbate the situation.  Some examples: malnutrition and 
poor food security hamper people's ability to fight disease 
and thus earn income; poor access to clean water leads to 
high child and infant mortality; and, a weak education system 
undermines a country's economic strength. 
 
5. (C) The UN points out that the impact of Burma's 
accelerating humanitarian crisis is also felt well beyond the 
country's borders.  It is very disruptive to regional 
stability, and a major obstacle to the international 
community's efforts to combat trafficking in persons, 
HIV/AIDS, and other social plagues.  In particular, the 
report illustrates in detail the connection between poverty, 
malnutrition, and slipping educational standards, on the one 
hand, and narcotics production and use, the AIDS epidemic, 
prostitution, and trafficking in persons. 
 
Who's to Blame? 
 
6 (C) The report gives the SPDC the credit and blame it 
deserves.  The UN is justifiably concerned with being too 
harsh on the GOB, but realizes the importance of giving a 
relatively frank assessment to those assembled in Tokyo. 
According to one UN official here, there was much discussion 
in the UN country team regarding how far to go in each 
direction.  Apparently there was concern that traditional 
opponents of the SPDC would use overwhelming criticism of the 
regime as further justification for withholding any 
international assistance that might be used to "bail the 
government out" of its predicament. 
 
7. (C) Nonetheless, the final UN report seems to have struck 
a good balance.  The GOB gets credit for improvement of water 
and sanitation facilities, construction of schools, improving 
stability in border regions via ceasefire accords, and 
reducing opium cultivation.  However, the UN makes it clear 
that the GOB's actions have not done enough -- for example 
pointing out the lack of well-trained teachers to staff the 
new schools.  In addition, the report, while not specifically 
mentioning the SPDC, asserts that "humanitarian issues...are 
often an extension of...weaknesses in the policy framework, 
stability, peace and security, the macro-economic 
environment, level and quality of social services, civil 
society participation, and transparency and accountability." 
 
How to Stop the Slide 
 
8. (C) The UN report's prescription is very straightforward: 
find a way to meet the needs of the people.  This should be 
the first priority for all parties, inside and outside of 
Burma, interested in the future of the country.  The report 
correctly points out that simply ignoring the gorilla in the 
room will not make it go away.  In fact, this policy of 
neglect will only lead to increased regional tensions, 
"vulnerability and social instability." 
 
Comment 
 
9. (C) We agree with the UN's assessment, and its blame for 
the situation.  In particular, the UN's outline of areas of 
concern is right on target.  Continuing to ignore the 
multitude of very serious social ills in Burma will doom it 
to an ill-fed, under-educated, and unhealthy generation -- 
the generation that could well be called on to rebuild a 
democratic nation.  Admittedly, these problems cannot be 
completely resolved unless the current regime changes its 
priorities.  While the international community cannot carry 
the entire burden in the interim, it can certainly contribute 
to some incremental improvements.  As U.S. AID has found with 
its nascent HIV/AIDS program in Burma, there are 
international NGOs that are able to work quite independently 
of the current regime in areas of critical humanitarian need. 
Martinez