US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB338

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000338 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (NARDI), EUR/PA/PD (HORNBUCKLE) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KPAO, KMDR, HR, IZ 
SUBJECT: WITH NO POLITICAL LEADERSHIP, CROATIA'S POSITION 
ON IRAQ SOFTENING 
 
REF: ZAGREB 326 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR LAWRENCE ROSSIN FOR REASON 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C) ALTHOUGH THE GOC MADE STRONG AND POSITIVE INITIAL 
STATEMENTS AFTER SECRETARY POWELL'S PRESENTATION TO THE UNSC 
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ON FEBRUARY 5, IT HAS DONE LITTLE SINCE THEN TO SHAPE THE 
PUBLIC DEBATE AND NOTHING TO DESCRIBE THE THREAT POSED BY 
SADDAM HUSSEIN'S WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.  THE AMBASSADOR 
HAS GIVEN A SERIES OF ON-THE-RECORD INTERVIEWS AND THE 
EMBASSY HAS PRACTICALLY FORCE-FED BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON 
THE THREAT POSED BY IRAQ TO ALL LOCAL MEDIA.  NEVERTHELESS, 
THE DEBATE IN ZAGREB'S POLITICAL CIRCLES IS NOW FOCUSED 
ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY ON WHETHER OR NOT FM PICULA SHOULD HAVE 
SIGNED THE V-10 STATEMENT AND HOW CROATIA'S BID FOR EU 
MEMBERSHIP WILL BE AFFECTED BY ITS POSITION ON IRAQ. 
 
2. (C) PUBLIC OPINION, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DOMESTIC 
POLITICAL LEADERSHIP ON THE ISSUE, IS RUNNING STRONG AGAINST 
MILITARY ACTION IN IRAQ WITHOUT A NEW UNSC RESOLUTION.  A 
FEBRUARY 10 POLL CONDUCTED BY CROATIA'S MOST RELIABLE AGENCY 
SHOWS THAT MORE THAN 80 PERCENT OF THE PUBLIC IS AGAINST 
MILITARY ACTION.  AT A FEBRUARY 12 PRESS CONFERENCE, PM RACAN 
BACKED AWAY FROM THE V-10 STATEMENT, CALLING IT "IMPRECISE 
AND OPEN TO INTERPRETATION," UNDERSCORING THAT IN SIGNING THE 
STATEMENT, THE GOC UNDERTOOK NO NEW OBLIGATIONS TO SUPPORT 
USG EFFORTS AGAINST IRAQ. 
 
3.  (C) RACAN SEEKS TO MAKE A CLEAR DIFFERENTIATION BETWEEN 
CROATIA'S COMMITMENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE WAR AGAINST 
TERRORISM AND ANY POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION TO EFFORTS IN IRAQ. 
ON FEBRUARY 11, RACAN REVIEWED THE MP PLATOON WHICH WILL 
DEPLOY TO KABUL IN SUPPORT OF ISAF BY THE END OF FEBRUARY. 
AT THE FEBRUARY 12 PRESS CONFERENCE, HE REITERATED CROATIA'S 
SUPPORT FOR THE WAR AGAINST TERRORISM.  BUT HE SAID THAT HIS 
GOVERNMENT HAS TAKEN NO DECISIONS ON HOW CROATIA MIGHT 
CONTRIBUTE TO EFFORTS IN IRAQ.  RACAN SAID THAT ANY DECISION 
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TO CONTRIBUTE TO MILITARY EFFORTS AGAINST IRAQ WOULD HAVE TO 
BE TAKEN BY THE CABINET, IN ACCORDANCE WITH CROATIA'S LAWS 
AND CONSTITUTION, AND THEN ONLY AFTER WEIGHING ALL ARGUMENTS, 
INCLUDING PUBLIC OPINION.  "CROATIA ADVOCATES A PEACEFUL 
RESOLUTION," SAID RACAN, AND ADDED THAT THE "POSITION OF THE 
CROATIAN PUBLIC IS UNDERSTANDABLE," GIVEN CROATIA'S RECENT 
EXPERIENCE IN WAR. 
 
4.  (C) RACAN -- NOT A DYNAMIC LEADER AT THE BEST OF TIMES -- 
IS TRYING TO KEEP HIS COALITION TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO 
SUBMIT CROATIA'S APPLICATION TO THE EU BEFORE LIMPING TO 
EARLY ELECTIONS (REFTEL).  WE WILL CONTINUE TO URGE CROATIAN 
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS -- AND THE LOCAL PRESS -- TO STAY 
FOCUSED ON THE IMPORTANT ISSUE AT HAND: DISARMING SADDAM 
HUSSEIN.  WITHOUT A CLEAR SIGNAL FROM THE EU OR NATO, RACAN'S 
GOVERNMENT WILL LIKELY STAY ON THE FENCE. 
ROSSIN 
 
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