US embassy cable - 03ABUJA291

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000291 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, PINR, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP FEBRUARY 10 
 
 
 Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter: Reason: 1.5(b) and 
(d) 
 
 
1. (U) This periodic joint political report from Abuja and 
Lagos includes: 
--Second Round of Voter Registration 
--New PDP Gubernatorial Caucuses 
--Potential Party Coalition vs. Obasanjo 
--Will AD Support Obasanjo? 
--Counterfeit Voter Cards in Lagos 
--Igbo Group Chooses Presidential Candidate 
--Atiku Gets a New Title 
 
 
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SECOND ROUND OF VOTER REGISTRATION 
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2. (U) The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) 
has completed its second round of voter registration for the 
upcoming presidential elections.  While INEC has not 
published the number of voters registered in this round, our 
observations and discussions with numerous politicians 
indicate the turnout was low.  Prior to this second round, 
INEC reportedly gave the police the names of over two million 
people who allegedly registered more than once during the 
initial registration last September. 
 
 
3. (C) Perhaps further delaying finalization of the voters 
list, press reports indicated the names of over one million 
registrants in Kano state, the North,s most populous state, 
might have been erased from INEC,s database due to computer 
error.  INEC confirmed that it had experienced computer 
errors, but declared the number of lost names to be 
significantly less.  COMMENT: A Northern figure close to ANPP 
candidate Muhammadu Buhari alleged that all Northerners in 
INEC's computer department had been reassigned to other 
duties and suggested that these moves were part of an effort 
to manipulate upcoming polls.  Whether either part of this 
allegation is true or not, many Northerners will decide to 
believe it as it conforms to their fears.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
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NEW PDP GUBERNATORIAL CAUCUSES 
------------------------------ 
 
 
4. (U) After protests two weeks ago at PDP Headquarters in 
Abuja, the People,s Democratic Party leadership ordered new 
gubernatorial caucuses in Kwara, Anambra, Osun and Borno. 
The protests alleged material irregularities in the previous 
caucuses in these states. The date has not been set yet for 
Anambra and Osun.  The new primaries in Kwara and Borno took 
place February 1 with results the same as the first caucuses. 
No violence was reported.  No decision has been made 
concerning protests of the Enugu caucus.  The party formally 
approved the results of the Plateau caucus. 
 
 
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POTENTIAL PARTY COALITION VS. OBASANJO 
-------------------------------------- 
 
 
5. (SBU) Representatives from the majority of the new 
political parties met in Abuja January 29 to discuss a 
possible coalition.  The ostensible rationale for the 
coalition was to oppose the two major parties and their 
flagbearers, President Obasanjo and his fellow former 
military Head of State, Muhammadu Buhari.  Several parties 
had already convened presidential primaries and chosen their 
candidates (UNPP, JP, NDP, and APGA).  As of right now, no 
party has publicly committed itself to the idea, with its 
suggestion of a joint opposition candidate.  Most of them 
planned to "study" the concept further. 
 
 
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WILL AD SUPPORT OBASANJO? 
------------------------- 
 
 
6. (C) Riven by internal conflict, the already factionalized 
AD may split again.  Much of the friction revolves around the 
question of whether the party will support Obasanjo or field 
its own candidate.  Apparently, most AD governors and the 
faction loyal to National Chairman Abdulkadir support 
Obasanjo.  However, two other factions opposed to Obasanjo 
have issued public statements purporting that Abdulkadir has 
been removed from office.  The Abdulkadir group is probably 
larger than the other two factions combined.  Meanwhile, the 
Yoruba leaders group, Afenifere, has been at loggerheads with 
the AD governors for control of the party.  Partly because of 
this competition and some longstanding antipathies between 
Afenifere leaders and the President, Afenifere has delayed 
enunciating its position on whether the AD should back 
Obasanjo.  (COMMENT:  While the anti-Obasanjo factions in the 
party do not seem to represent the majority, their activities 
have made an untidy spectacle of the AD.  These factions may 
be receiving support from Obasanjo opponents outside the 
party.  In the end, the AD will likely support Obasanjo. 
Although AD factionalism will diminish that endorsement's 
value somewhat, it still will be seen by many as an 
expression that Obasanjo is secure in the Southwest.  END 
COMMENT.) 
 
 
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COUNTERFEIT VOTER CARDS IN LAGOS 
-------------------------------- 
 
 
7. (C) Newspapers reported the alleged confiscation of 
two-five million fake voter registration cards last week. 
Our contacts confirm that the actual event was the arrest of 
a clerk who had been bribed to make five cards, with possibly 
more on the way.  The clerk is still in detention, and no 
other arrests have been made. (COMMENT: Once again the 
sensationalist press got it wrong.  However, the publication 
of such stories demonstrates how ready people are to believe 
that electoral fraud will be on a massive scale and INEC is 
either powerless to stop these designs or is complicit in 
them. END COMMENT) 
 
 
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IGBO GROUP FAILS TO CHOSE CONSENSUS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
 
8. (C) Ohaneze Ndigbo, the most influential Igbo leadership 
group, has been unable to select a consensus candidate from 
among the six Igbo candidates chosen by different parties. 
The January 31 meeting Ohaneze held with the Igbo candidates 
ended in stalemate.  APGA, the only predominately Igbo party, 
argued that Ohaneze should first direct Igbos to the party 
where their influence is the strongest, i.e. APGA.  If 
APGA,s petition had been accepted, selection of its 
candidate, controversial former Biafran leader Emeka Ojukwu, 
would have been a foregone conclusion.  The other Igbo 
candidates contended that Ohaneze should concentrate on 
identifying the candidate most likely to win (clearly not 
Ojukwu) and not on the parties.  (COMMENT: The fractious 
nature of Igbo politics makes reaching a consensus very 
difficult.  Ohaneze and the candidates will meet again in 
Abuja the week of February 10-14 to continue discussions. 
END COMMENT.) 
 
 
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ATIKU GETS A NEW TITLE 
---------------------- 
 
 
9. (C) The Ooni of Ife, the preeminent Yoruba traditional 
leader, conferred the Yoruba chieftancy title of &Aare 
Adimula8 on Vice President Abubakar Atiku February 1 in an 
apparent acceptance of the VP by the Yoruba leadership.  The 
conferment was the Ooni,s way of repaying Atiku for standing 
by Obasanjo during the PDP convention last month.  During the 
ceremony, the Ooni stated that Atiku could be assured of 
Yoruba support for &any future political activities,8 a not 
too oblique reference to the 2007 presidential contest. 
(COMMENT: Atiku February 7 told DCM he was very pleased with 
the title and the implication of future support it conferred. 
 END COMMENT). 
JETER 
JETER