US embassy cable - 03ABUJA283

UNCLAS ABUJA 000283 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM, PGOV, PREL, EAID, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: MEETING ON DEPLOYMENT OF ELECTION 
MONITORS 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY: The Embassy convened a meeting with U.S. 
NGOs and others on January 30 to discuss numbers and 
deployments of election monitors for Nigeria's April 
national elections.  Given the size of Nigeria and the 
number of polling stations, the international monitor 
presence will be relatively small, but nevertheless 
difficult to coordinate.  There are serious deficiencies in 
the current domestic monitoring framework; the Mission is 
trying to address them.  Additional training resources may 
be urgently required (see para 5).  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
2. (U) NDI/Carter Center expects 25-30 monitors for the 
April 12 National Assembly elections (possibly led by 
former Secretary Albright) and an additional 30 (for a 
minimum total of 50) for the April 19 presidential election 
(possibly led by FPOTUS Carter and former Namibian Prime 
Minister Hage Geingob).  IRI expects 50 monitors (10 will 
be here for National Assembly elections), split into 15 
field teams of three and an Abuja-based headquarters 
component.  The BHC, speaking on behalf of the EU and the 
Commonwealth, expects 106 monitors from the EU for both 
elections and 15-25 from the Commonwealth.  The BHC 
representative understood that the Japanese might also send 
monitors.  It is probable that there will be other 
monitoring groups, perhaps from the AU, ECOWAS and SADC. 
The likely minimum number of international monitors is 215, 
and the maximum is not likely to exceed 250.  A UNEAD 
official commented repeatedly that each group should engage 
in an "internal dialogue" before there could be an inter- 
group discussion of coordinating deployments. 
 
 
3.  (U) The Independent National Electoral Commission is 
hosting a meeting February 14 for international monitors to 
discuss accreditation and expectations.  An INEC meeting 
for domestic groups interested in monitoring was postponed 
from February 4 to the week of February 10 (two days during 
that week are likely to be Nigerian national holidays). 
 
 
4.  (SBU) The presence of international monitors will be 
important but the amount of coverage they will provide will 
be limited.  With some 120,000 polling places, 
comprehensive international monitoring could never be a 
realistic prospect.  Unfortunately, each of the various 
monitoring groups appears inclined to attempt "national" 
coverage with their respective 25-100 monitors.  Among 
them, however, only NDI had a basic concept in place.  The 
danger is that each group might visit the same states, or 
even the same Local Government Areas.  A second meeting 
will be held the week of February 18, and the groups have 
been invited to produce a document similar to NDI's, as 
well as a summary explanation for their proposed 
deployments.  The assembled groups will then attempt to 
work out specific places of deployment to minimize 
redundancy and maximize spread of coverage.  (COMMENT: 
Notwithstanding the UNEAD official's harping on the need 
for each group to have an "internal dialogue" on deployment 
before discussing coordination and his thought that 
coordination might ultimately prove impossible.  We are 
optimistic that a useful level of coordination can be 
attained.  END COMMENT.) 
 
 
5.  (SBU) All participants in the January 30 meeting agreed 
that, even if international monitors coordinate well, a 
heavy burden for assessing the conduct of the electoral 
process would fall on the domestic monitors. 
Unfortunately, the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG - whose 
credibility was damaged by its inability to field the 
promised number of monitors for the September 2002 
registration process) and the Justice Development and Peace 
Committee (JDPC - affiliated with the Catholic Church), the 
two major domestic monitoring groups, are barely talking 
with each other.  Moreover, both groups draw their strength 
from southern Nigeria and the peoples indigenous to the 
South.  The Mission is trying to encourage groups with 
Northern roots that might be able to deploy large numbers 
of monitors to consider attending the INEC meeting for 
domestic monitors.  We are making progress on this 
objective, and may need additional training resources 
urgently. 
 
 
JETER