US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB297

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000297 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (NARDI) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, HR, PGOV, HR, IZ, IZPREL 
SUBJECT: CROATIA: SABOR TO DEBATE POSITION ON IRAQ; 
POLITICS AS USUAL? 
 
REF: A. SECSTATE 34169 
     B. ZAGREB 292 
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CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF A.F.GODFREY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) 
 
SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) THE NATIONAL SECURITY AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEES 
OF THE CROATIAN PARLIAMENT WILL HOLD A JOINT HEARING ON 
FEBRUARY 12 TO DISCUSS CROATIA'S POLICY TOWARD POTENTIAL 
MILITARY ACTION IN IRAQ.  SOME OF CROATIA'S LEADING 
PARLIAMENTARIANS OBJECTED TO NOT BEING CONSULTED IN ADVANCE 
OF THE GOVERNMENT TAKING A STRONG PUBLIC STANCE WITH OTHER 
VILNIUS-10 STATES IN SUPPORT OF THE U.S. APPROACH ON IRAQ. 
IN A MEETING WITH THE CHAIR OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY 
COMMITTEE ON FEBRUARY 7, WE WARNED THAT THIS ISSUE MUST NOT 
BE USED TO SCORE POLITICAL POINTS; PRESIDENT MESIC'S ADDRESS 
AND THE V-10 STATEMENT SENT A STRONG POSITIVE MESSAGE; THE 
SABOR SHOULD NOT SEEK TO DILUTE THIS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) MOST OF CROATIA'S LEADING POLITICIANS, INCLUDING 
PRESIDENT MESIC, LEARNED OF THE GOVERNMENT'S DECISION TO JOIN 
V-10 COUNTRIES ON FEBRUARY 5 IN A STRONG DECLARATION OF 
SUPPORT FOR THE U.S. POSITION ON IRAQ (REF A) FROM PRESS 
REPORTING.  SOME OF CROATIA'S POLITICIANS ARE OBJECTING TO 
THE STATEMENT, WHICH THEY CLAIM WAS TAKEN WITHOUT APPROPRIATE 
CONSULTATION.  AS HE OFTEN DOES, PRESIDENT MESIC TOOK THE 
HIGH ROAD, AND GAVE A TELEVISED ADDRESS ON FEBRUARY 6 (REF B) 
URGING PEACEFUL RESOLUTION THROUGH SECURITY COUNCIL ACTION, 
BUT STATED THAT "IF A WAR FOR WHAT IS RIGHT IS INEVITABLE, 
THEN CROATIA KNOWS WHERE HER PLACE IS."  OTHER POLITICIANS 
HAVE BEEN LESS SUPPORTIVE, BUT MOST OBJECT MORE TO BEING 
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EXCLUDED FROM THE POLICY DECISION RATHER THAN TO THE MERITS 
OF SUPPORTING THE U.S. POSITION. 
 
3.  (C) JOZO RADOS AND IVO BANAC, PRESIDENTS OF TWO OF THE 
RULING COALITION'S THREE "JUNIOR PARTNER" PARTIES, ISSUED 
STATEMENTS IN SUPPORT OF THE GOC POSITION ON IRAQ.  IVO 
SANADER, PRESIDENT OF CROATIA'S OPPOSITION HDZ, MADE A 
STATEMENT ON FEBRUARY 6 THAT HIS PARTY "GIVES ITS FULL 
SUPPORT TO PRESIDENT BUSH AND THE POLICY OF THE UNITED 
STATES."  (NOTE: THE HDZ DESPERATELY SEEKS INTERNATIONAL 
VALIDATION FOR ITS INCOMPLETE INTERNAL REFORM PROCESS SO IT 
CAN CONVINCE CROATIAN VOTERS IT IS NO LONGER THE CORRUPT, 
EXTREMIST PARTY OF FORMER PRESIDENT TUDJMAN.)  OPPOSITION 
HSLS PRESIDENT DRAZEN BUDISA SAID THAT HIS PARTY (WHICH WAS 
EJECTED FROM THE CURRENT COALITION IN JULY 2002) "FOUND THE 
STAND OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE SO-CALLED OLD EUROPE MORE 
REASONABLE AND ACCEPTABLE THAN THAT OF THE VILNIUS GROUP." 
 
LAYING DOWN A MARKER: NO POLITICS ON IRAQ 
----------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) ON FEBRUARY 7, WE MET WITH ANTE MARKOV (HSS, THE 
SECOND-LARGEST PARTY IN THE RULING COALITION), CHAIR OF THE 
PARLIAMENT'S NATIONAL SECURITY COMMITTEE.  A DAY EARLIER, 
MARKOV WAS QUOTED IN THE PRESS AS REFUSING TO COMMENT ON THE 
V-10 STATEMENT BECAUSE HE IS NOT CERTAIN "IF THE POSITION 
EXPRESSED IS THE POSITION OF ALL CROATIA."  WE TOLD HIM 
BLUNTLY THAT THIS IS NOT AN ISSUE ON WHICH TO PLAY POLITICS. 
MARKOV WAS QUICK TO EXPLAIN THAT HE AND ZDRAVKO TOMAC (SDP), 
CHAIR OF THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE, TRIED WITHOUT SUCCESS 
TO REACH FM PICULA BEFORE THE STATEMENT WAS RELEASED IN ORDER 
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TO DEVELOP A UNIFIED POSITION. 
 
5.  (C) MARKOV SAID THAT THERE WERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 
POSITION EXPRESSED BY THE PRESIDENT IN HIS ADDRESS AND THE 
POSITION PUT FORWARD IN THE V-10 STATEMENT.  CROATIA SHOULD 
HAVE A UNIFIED POSITION.  THEREFORE, THE SABOR'S NATIONAL 
SECURITY COMMITTEE AND THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE HAVE 
AGREED TO HOLD A JOINT HEARING ON FEBRUARY 12 TO DEVELOP A 
UNIFIED POSITION. 
 
6.  (C) WE TOLD MARKOV THAT WHILE WE WOULD WELCOME AN EVEN 
BROADER CONSENSUS OF CROATIAN SUPPORT FOR OUR VIEW OF THE 
DANGERS PRESENTED BY IRAQ, WE CAUTIONED AGAINST DILUTING THE 
POWERFUL, POSITIVE MESSAGE THAT CROATIA HAS PUT INTO PLAY. 
WE CAUTIONED MARKOV THAT PARLIAMENTARIANS MUST NOT VIEW THEIR 
DECISION ON IRAQ AS CHOOSING BETWEEN THE U.S. AND THE EU; 
WHILE THERE IS AS YET NO CONSENSUS WITHIN THE EU, SOME 
LEADING MEMBERS HAVE ALREADY MADE THEIR DECISION.  MARKOV 
WELCOMED OUR OFFER TO PROVIDE THE COMMITTEE MEETING WITH 
INFORMATION BASED ON SECRETARY POWELL'S INTERVENTION AT THE 
UNSC. 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5531 
 
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ACTION EUR-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    CIAE-00  INL-00   DS-00    FBIE-00 
      VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   VCE-00   NEA-00 
      NSAE-00  SSO-00   SS-00    DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-01   NFAT-00 
      SAS-00   SWCI-00    /002W 
                  ------------------32B640  071534Z /38 
O 071511Z FEB 03 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9411 
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY SKOPJE PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY TIRANA PRIORITY 
SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY 
DIA WASHDC PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 000297 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (NARDI) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, HR, IZ 
SUBJECT: CROATIA: SABOR TO DEBATE POSITION ON IRAQ; 
POLITICS AS USUAL? 
 
ROSSIN 
 
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