US embassy cable - 03ABUJA280

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000280 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY; PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: LAGOS STATE GOVERNOR TINUBU RECAPS 
ELECTORAL POLITICS, THUS FAR 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER FOR REASONS 
1.5(B) AND (D) 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: The Ambassador accompanied by Consul 
General and Staff Assistant (note-taker) met a 
politically confident and relaxed Lagos State 
Governor, Bola Ahmed Tinubu on January 24.  Despite 
the allegations being tossed at him, Tinubu appeared 
self-assured and convinced of his political longevity. 
The Ambassador and the Governor discussed the results 
of the recent party conventions and handicapped the 
April general elections. End Summary. 
 
 
2. (C) Ambassador Jeter began the meeting by 
congratulating the Governor on his nomination as the 
Alliance for Democracy (AD) Lagos State gubernatorial 
candidate.  The Governor responded modestly, but 
stated that he was virtually unopposed. When asked 
about his former Deputy Governor and now staunch foe, 
Tinubu said that Bucknor- Ackerele joined the ANPP, 
not finding success there, she skipped to the NDP, 
where she will likely be the gubernatorial candidate. 
 
 
3. (C) Despite having supported the presence of 
additional political parties, Tinubu now expressed 
concern that there were too many parties.  Instead of 
strengthening democracy, he feared the presence of 
roughly 30 parties would weaken democracy and perplex 
the Nigerian electorate. On a practical level, the 
Governor said, it is difficult for the Independent 
National Electoral Commission (INEC) to manage; with 
so many parties, minor tasks like constructing 
comprehendible ballots posed a challenge. He continued 
that INEC's problems are compounded by insufficient 
funding to prevent voter fraud. The Ambassador agreed 
that funding was a serious issue but gave a different 
perspective, saying INEC's challenges could, if 
overcome, be viewed as precedent-setting, ultimately 
strengthening democracy and establishing examples for 
future elections. 
 
 
4. (C) Asked about the recent PDP convention, Tinubu 
stated that the outcome was uncertain even up to the 
time the ballots were cast.  Adding suspense to the 
PDP convention, important governors such as Katsina's 
Yar'Ardua and Kaduna's Makarfi waned in their support 
for Obasanjo. The opposition to Obasanjo was 
understandable, according to Tinubu.  On the policy 
front, Obasanjo under-performed in several areas, most 
profoundly on the budget and resource allocation. 
According to Tinubu, Obasanjo low-balled the price of 
oil in GON budgetary projections. The FY02 budget, he 
said, was based on $18 per barrel, but oil sold at 
over $22 per barrel for most of the year. Tinubu asked 
where the difference was being deposited, subtly 
accusing Obasanjo of malfeasance. The Ambassador asked 
Tinubu what he thought of Obasanjo's troubles leading 
up to the PDP primaries. Playing both sides of the 
fence and contradicting his prior comments, the 
Governor said that OO's intra-party troubles were 
designed to teach him a lesson. The party always 
intended to re-elect him, but wanted to remind 
Obasanjo to whom he owed allegiance. 
 
 
5. (C) The Governor said that Obasanjo's trials and 
tribulations have been a serious wake-up call. An 
outstanding question is whether Obasanjo will honor 
commitments made during his moment of desperation at 
the PDP convention.  Tinubu explained that Obasanjo 
would destroy his own legacy if he seeks revenge 
against Atiku.  Obasanjo's ego is big, the Governor 
said, but he's smart enough not to challenge Atiku. In 
fact, in the next administration Atiku will gain more 
prominence and power, possibly in the form of a deal 
in which Obasanjo would be the traveling Statesman and 
Atiku would spearhead domestic policy. 
 
 
6. (C) The Ambassador asked about ANPP's Presidential 
candidate Muhammadu Buhari's prospects in the Southern 
States. Tinubu said that Buhari possibly could do well 
in the South-South but not in the South-East or South- 
West where religion is less important than 
personality, political record, sentiment, and 
emotions. Tinubu estimated that Buhari will garner 33% 
of the vote overall but will not win any Christian 
votes in the North. As it now stands, the oil 
dichotomy bill will mobilize the North against 
Obasanjo if he gives away too much; Tinubu said. Only 
Buhari could concede the continental shelf and get 
away with it. 
 
 
7. (C) Tinubu revealed that Alek Ekweume was actually 
the AD's preferred PDP candidate and expressed regret 
about his defeat. The Governor said that the AD wanted 
Ekwueme to run and even win, because he was a civilian 
and civilian governments are more responsive to 
governors' interests. But Tinubu said that Ekwueme did 
not have a chance because he made critical blunders 
early on, including insufficient funding and starting 
his campaign too late. 
 
 
8. (C) The Ambassador led the Governor down a 
discussion of other "winners and losers" in the 
electoral season thus far. Both the Ambassador and the 
Governor agreed that the biggest winners were the 
governors and Atiku, who proved their relevance and 
weight in the primary process by controlling 
Obasanjo's fate.  National Security Advisor Aliyu 
Mohammed was a big loser, Tinubu said. He now has no 
prospects in government for 2003 and is out in the 
political cold struggling for his survival. Ambassador 
Jeter pointed out that IBB didn't deliver and was 
possibly the biggest loser of all despite having his 
tentacles in 5 parties. The Governor agreed, saying 
that IBB was "eaten like beef between two slices of 
bread". Tinubu said that IBB's problems began when 
Atiku refused to take IBB's bait to break with 
Obasanjo.  He then conceded that if Atiku himself had 
decided to run, Tinubu was planning to be Atiku's Vice 
Presidential running mate. 
 
 
9. (C) Ambassador Jeter shifted the discussion to 
state and local politics, asking the Governor's 
thoughts on political hot-spots.  The Governor said 
that election violence in Kwara State was inevitable 
because ANPP's Governor Lawal was willing to play 
hardball in order to win the election.  Tinubu 
postulated that Governor Lawal and PDP's Olu Saraki 
would likely split the vote in the center of the 
state; Lai Mohammed (formerly Tinubu's Chief of Staff) 
will be strong in the South while the Northern part of 
the state would be up for grabs. The Governor also 
predicted problems in Anambra, Enugu, Plateau, and 
Kaduna States.   In Kaduna, Governor Tinubu said he 
expected the AD candidate to win. (NOTE: Not likely. 
END NOTE) He is also expecting AD victories in Borno 
and perhaps even Benue State. (NOTE: Borno is a 
possibility, but Benue is out of range.  END NOTE) 
 
 
10. (C) Comment: With his path to re-election 
relatively clear, Tinubu's most serious opponent is 
his own past and allegations of forged educational 
degrees that continue to hound him. More recent 
allegations that Tinubu forfeited $460,000 in the U.S. 
to avoid charges of money laundering and even 
narcotics trafficking are the latest unconfirmed 
scandals. However, Tinubu appeared confident during 
this recent session; he overcame the allegations in 
1999 and believes he can do the same this time around. 
As always, we found his take on the national political 
scene to be insightful.  His assessment of the winners 
and losers tracks our own. Atiku and the governors 
were clear winners. Turning the normal political 
dynamic on its head, Obasanjo won because he was able 
to ride the coattails of his Vice President. Big 
losers were Alek Ekwueme, NSA Mohammed and former 
Heads of State Babangida and Abdusalami Abubakar, 
whose support for Ekwueme was insufficient to 
guarantee Obasanjo's defeat. 
 
 
11. (C) Clearly a skilled politician, Governor Tinubu 
was frank but cautious and deliberate. Tinubu's point 
of view primarily reflects entrenched interests of the 
South but at the same time he was careful not to 
dismiss the power of the North. Tinubu is a man intent 
on covering all bases. Though an AD politician, like 
his Deputy Governor, Tinubu is flexible and willing to 
follow wherever the pendulum of power swings. End 
Comment. 
 
 
JETER