US embassy cable - 03ABUJA278

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 000278 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CAIRO FOR POL - J. MAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ELECTORAL COMMISSION CONTINUES TO FACE 
LOGISTICAL PROBLEMS 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reason 1.5(b) and 
(d). 
 
 
1.  (C) Summary: During a January 12 conversation with 
Ambassador Jeter, Independent National Electoral Commission 
(INEC) Chairman Abel Guobadia said INEC would hold 
elections as scheduled provided the FY 03 budget allocation 
was received in time.  Guobadia continued to blame current 
logistical bottlenecks in electoral preparations on belated 
FY 02 funding and on the December Supreme Court decision 
that allowed the registration of over 20 new parties.  On 
voter registration, Guobadia said verification of the 
voters rolls was almost finished but admitted a high rate 
of fraud.  Regarding the January 21-24 make-up 
registration, the INEC Chairman explained the exercise 
would be conducted at the 774 local government headquarters 
throughout the country vice the 120,000 sites used for the 
original round last September.  He predicted INEC would be 
maligned for reducing the sites, but argued INEC could do 
no better given its financial constraints.  USAID Country 
Director Liberi, USAID Democracy & Governance Officer 
Wright and PolCouns accompanied the Ambassador.  Chairman 
Guobadia was joined by INEC Secretary Hakeem Baba-Ahmed. 
End Summary. 
 
 
2.  (C) Beginning the meeting, Chairman Guobadia thanked 
Ambassador Jeter for pressing the National Assembly and the 
Presidency to fund INEC during the final quarter of 2002. 
INEC probably "would not have gotten the amount it did at 
the time it did" but for the purposeful intervention of the 
Ambassador and other Western Chiefs of Missions, Guobadia 
said. 
 
 
3. (C) Attempting to preempt some of our questions, 
Guobadia asserted the electoral schedule was tossed off 
kilter when "the political environment shifted" after the 
Supreme Court decision last December opened the door to the 
registration of over 20 additional parties.  Guobadia 
contended INEC was not the culprit when it refused to 
register those parties in mid-2002.  He characterized INEC 
as merely and faithfully following the electoral law as it 
existed.  INEC's registration guidelines were based on the 
electoral law, which effectively "raised the bar" against 
these parties, he argued.  When the Supreme Court 
invalidated the sections of the law dealing with party 
registration, INEC's corollary regulations also were 
nullified.  INEC then developed less stringent regulations 
consonant with the Court's ruling; these new regulations 
paved the way for the additional parties. (Comment: 
Guobadia seemed to be at pains to defend his actions and to 
show us that he was not the killjoy of greater political 
participation as he had been portrayed in the media.  End 
Comment.) 
 
 
4. (C) The electoral timetable had to be amended to 
accommodate the newcomers, Guobadia continued.  Before the 
ruling, INEC had proposed that parties submit their notices 
of interest for each election in which they would 
participate at least 120 days before the elections; the 
names of the actual candidates would be required 90 days 
before the contests.  After the Supreme Court decision, the 
National Assembly reduced the 120 days for the party 
deadline to 90 days, not realizing the confusion it would 
create due to the pre-existing 90-day limit on candidate 
submissions.  Finally, the National Assembly reduced the 
period for candidate submissions to 60 days to resolve this 
problem. After pointing to this flaw in the electoral law, 
Guobadia asserted there were still many others that needed 
rectification before the actual election took place. 
 
 
------------------- 
Voters Registration 
------------------- 
 
 
5. (C) Both Guobadia and Baba-Ahmed acknowledged voter 
registration was key to a credible election and both tried 
to defend INEC's handling of the registration exercise. 
The Chairman stated that over 60 million of the 72 million 
forms prepared for the September exercise were returned for 
processing.  He claimed the scanning of the forms into the 
new computer system was nearly completed.  (Scanning was 
required not only to input information into a central 
database, but to prevent multiple registrations through the 
scanning and checking of registrants' thumbprints as well 
as their biographic information.)  Guobadia admitted a high 
rate of fraudulent registrations.  Although declining to 
give a nationwide figure, he identified a community in 
Ekiti State where 1,000 of 4,000 forms were tossed out. 
Noting the Ekiti community was rural, Guobadia feared the 
incidence in Nigeria's cities likely would be worse. 
 
 
------------------- 
Registration "Lite" 
------------------- 
 
 
6. (C) While still cleaning the rolls from last September's 
registration, INEC would also conduct a January 21-24 
"make-up" exercise, Secretary Baba-Ahmed revealed. 
Implying that INEC thought a second round unnecessary, 
Baba-Ahmed stated the decision on a second round was a 
political one. It was in response to the perception widely 
held by Nigerians and the international community that many 
eligible voters were unable to register last September. 
Since INEC never budgeted for a second registration, it had 
to shift funds from "other" priorities to finance this 
unexpected expense. To accomplish this second round without 
siphoning too much from other essential tasks, INEC would 
limit registration to the 774 local government authorities. 
It would not reopen the 120,000 locations used in 
September. 
 
 
7. (C) Baba-Ahmed downplayed the hardship to potential 
registrants this reduction would cause.  He contended that 
the problem of under-registration was mainly urban. Because 
under-registration was infrequent in rural areas, the 
reduction of the number of locations would not compel large 
numbers of rural residents to travel long distances to 
register. 
 
 
 
 
8. (C) Additionally, to lessen fraudulent registrations 
during the second round, INEC would make all new 
registrants formally disclaim they had not previously 
registered and acknowledge that dual registration was a 
punishable crime.  Due to the reduction of sites, Baba- 
Ahmed predicted that many Nigerians would traduce INEC and 
make-up exercise. (Comment: Ahmed's prediction was 
partially correct. Tight finances might have compelled INEC 
to fashion "registration lite." However, most people 
believe INEC only begrudgingly agreed to a second round; 
they did not expect INEC to exert maximum effort for the 
make-up.  Because both expectations and turnouts were low, 
the criticism has not been as vocal as Baba-Ahmed feared. 
More on the second round of registration will be reported 
septel.  End comment.) 
 
 
9.  (C) The Chairman predicted the registration lists would 
be published by late February or early March, followed by a 
5-day period of claims and objections. The INEC officials 
admitted they have not resolved exactly how they would 
handle the claims process.  They will have to post the 
locally relevant information at each of the 120,000 sites 
used in September, with a maximum of 500 names posted at 
any one location.  Because of fear of tampering, the list 
could not simply be posted and left unattended in a public 
place overnight. Precautions would have to be established 
so that citizens could check the lists without leaving the 
lists vulnerable to tampering and fraud, the INEC officials 
conceded. 
 
 
------------------- 
WHERE IS THE MONEY? 
------------------- 
 
 
10.  (C)  Responding to a question from the Ambassador, 
Guobadia sAID that news reports of INEC requesting an 
additional 28 billion Naira were essentially correct.  He 
explained the 28 billion received in December was INEC's 
FY-02 allocation. The FY-02 allocation was essentially to 
fund pre-election day requirements, such as ballot boxes, 
ballot papers, etc. The FY-03 allocation, in addition to 
paying recurrent expenses and for a new office building, 
was needed for actual election-day expenses. 
(Transportation costs for INEC workers, allowances, some 
communications, tabulation forms, etc.) 
 
 
11.  (C) Secretary Baba-Ahmed emphasized that INEC needed 
international financial assistance in two major areas: 
 
 
-- Transportation of ballot papers and sensitive equipment 
to the polls. 
 
 
-- Election results management in order to ensure quick and 
accurate transmission of results from local stations to the 
next successive stage of vote tabulation. 
 
 
On the first point, INEC wanted donor assistance to develop 
a transportation system to move ballot papers and INEC 
officials to the 120,000 polling locations just before the 
voting begins.  Orchestrating so many movements within a 
brief time would be a complex logistical undertaking 
requiring reliable transportation assets, Baba-Ahmed 
argued. INEC had considered pre-positioning materials well 
in advance; but, apprehension about theft and fraud doomed 
this possibility. On the second point, INEC needed  to 
quickly tabulate and transmit results, particularly from 
isolated rural communities.  Baba-Ahmed claimed 
irregularities and delays with the vote tabulation were 
among the most frequent complaints about the 1999 election. 
INEC wanted to avoid these complaints this time around. 
The USAID Director responded that USAID, along with other 
donors, would be willing to consider reasonable requests to 
help on both fronts.  However, she disabused the INEC 
officials of any notion that USAID would fund the purchase 
of big-ticket items such as helicopters and vehicles. 
 
 
----------------------------- 
GRADUAL PROGRESS ON LOGISTICS 
----------------------------- 
 
 
12. (C) Guobadia was pleased INEC had received required 
funding for pre-election day expenses; however, the advent 
of the new parties had complicated planning.  For instance, 
preparation of ballot paper had been made exponentially 
more complex.  INEC did not know whether to place all the 
parties on the ballot for all elections even though most 
parties would not field a complete slate of candidates. 
Because of the uncertainty over which parties will compete 
in what elections, INEC planned to wait until the February 
11 deadline for the parties to submit their lists of 
candidates before developing the ballot paper.  He 
acknowledged the decision on the ballot paper could be 
further delayed if they decided to use pictures and names 
of the actual candidates since the parties had until March 
11 to amend their candidate lists. 
 
 
13.  (C) Ambassador Jeter emphasized that the ballot paper 
and boxes were essential; INEC had to ensure the ordering 
was done in good time; the Ambassador expressed concern 
that waiting until late February or March might be cutting 
things too tightly. 
 
 
----------------- 
ELECTION SCHEDULE 
----------------- 
 
 
14. (C) Despite the tight scheduling, the Chairman was 
confident that INEC would be on schedule for the April 12 
National Assembly elections and April 19 Presidential and 
gubernatorial elections.  Runoffs, if needed, would be 
April 29. 
 
 
----------------------- 
INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS 
----------------------- 
 
 
15. (C) Guobadia mentioned the January 6 Diplomatic Note 
sent by the MFA to most diplomatic missions outlining the 
accreditation process for international monitors.  He 
explained that INEC would conduct the actual accreditation 
but MFA would be the initial point-of-contact for 
prospective monitors.  The Chairman hoped the UNDP would 
coordinate the work of the international groups since INEC 
did not have the wherewithal to manage the task. 
 
 
----------------- 
CODE(S)OF CONDUCT 
----------------- 
 
 
16. Baba-Ahmed stated the political party Code of Conduct 
probably would have been finalized in December but for the 
advent of the new parties.  He added that INEC Commissioner 
Musa was talking with all the political parties and hoped 
to finalize the Code in a few weeks.  In response to 
Ambassador Jeter's recommendation for a journalists' code 
of conduct, the Chairman stated that the Ministry of 
Communication would have to take the lead, but took it upon 
himself to discuss the idea with the Minister. 
 
 
-------- 
COMMENT 
-------- 
 
 
17.  (C)  Although neither the most engaging or forthcoming 
of interlocutors, the Chairman has been increasingly more 
accessible and open during our discussions.  With the 
political party conventions now past, the electoral season 
is in full swing; Guobadia knows that he and his Commission 
will be at the center of attention; moreover, he knows the 
heat that will be generated by his occupancy of that 
central position.  The countdown to April is inexorable. 
While INEC's performance has improved incrementally during 
the past weeks, it will have to accelerate its step in 
order to be ready in time. We are concerned by INEC's lack 
of stride on key items like ballot boxes and papers.  The 
schedule is tight and the margin for error is wafer thin. 
We will continue to press INEC to move both more smartly 
and faster on these and other key issues. 
JETER