US embassy cable - 03RANGOON168

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000168 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
CINCPAC FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2012 
TAGS: PINR, PREL, BM 
SUBJECT: REGIME NAMES CHANGE, GAME REMAINS THE SAME 
 
Classified By: COM CARMEN M. MARTINEZ FOR REASON 1.5(D). 
 
1. (SBU)  Summary:  The State Peace and Development Council 
(SPDC)  announced on February 1 the selection of a new 
"Secretary 2" and the rotation, including two retirements, of 
several regime ministers.  The outgoing ministers won't be 
missed.  The incoming Secretary 2 may eventually establish 
himself as a successor to Secretary 1.  End Summary. 
 
A New Secretary 2 - Lt. Gen. Soe Win 
 
2. (C)  On February 1, the SPDC announced that Lt. General 
Soe Win had been assigned as Secretary 2 in the junta.  The 
Secretary 2 post (the fourth most senior position in the 
 
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junta) had been vacant since February 2001, when Lt. General 
Tin Oo was killed in a helicopter accident.  Soe Win, who is 
approximately 50, worked his way up through various military 
commands before being promoted to Brigadier General in 1996 
as Commander of the North-West Region.  In 1997, he became a 
member of the junta during its transition from the State Law 
and Order Committee (SLORC) to the SPDC.  In November 2001, 
he was promoted to Air Defense Commander.  He also serves as 
one of the Patrons of the Union Solidarity and Development 
Association (USDA), a mass organization used as a base of 
political support by the SPDC. 
 
3. (C)  Lt. General Soe Win is not very well known, and 
appears to have made his name through allegiance and dutiful 
service rather than exceptional performance.  The North-West 
Command is SPDC Vice Chairman Maung Aye's home turf and it is 
believed that Soe Win is closer to the military side of the 
junta (General Maung Aye) than to the intelligence side 
(General Khin Nyunt).  Ultimately, of course, all are 
currently under the firm hand of Senior General Than Shwe. 
 
4. (C)  In late January, Soe Win was in the press for the 
first time since his promotion in 2001.  The Democratic Voice 
of Burma reported that he told a USDA meeting in Pyay that 
the SPDC would not talk to or hand over power to the NLD. 
According to the DVB, he urged the gathered USDA members and 
civil servants to not have any contact with the NLD and to 
continue in their service to the country. 
 
New Ministers 
 
5. (C)  Effective February 2, the SPDC also retired Minister 
of Health Major General Ket Sein and Minister of Finance and 
Revenue U Khin Maung Thein and transferred Minister of Rail 
Transportation U Pan Aung to the Prime Minister's Office. 
Major General Aung Min replaced U Pan Aung as Minister of 
Rail Transportation.  Major General Aung Min is married to 
the sister of the newly installed Minister for Economic 
Planning and Economic Development, U Soe Tha, who in turn is 
reportedly close to Than Shwe.  This family connection may 
partly explain the change. 
 
6. (C)  The new Minister of Health, Dr. Kyaw Myint, is a 
physician who has served as a Deputy Minister and a Director 
General in the Ministry of Health.  He is well regarded by 
NGOs and UN officials here and served as Chairman of the WHO 
Executive Board in Geneva last year.  His main qualification 
for the minister's position, however, is that he has served 
as personal physician to Senior General Than Shwe and his 
family.  We have no information available yet on the new 
Minister of Finance and Revenue, Major General Hla Tun. 
 
7. (C)  The SPDC also announced on February 2 that it was 
increasing the number of Deputy Chief Justices from two to 
three and the number of Supreme Court Justices from eight to 
twelve.  According to the GoB, an interest in "smooth and 
speedy administration of justice in the interest of the 
people..." lay behind the additional appointments.  In the 
Attorney General's office the number of Deputy Attorneys 
General was increased from one to three. 
 
Comment 
 
8. (C)  As usual, it is not clear what lies behind all these 
changes, but a couple of general points can be made.  First, 
these promotions and retirements are standard practice as the 
SPDC has frequently rotated senior military officers among 
the 93 SPDC, minister, or deputy minister positions. 
Meanwhile, the NLD and other political parties have largely 
maintained the leadership structures that were in place at 
the time of the 1990 election.  As a result, the generational 
contrast between leadership in the SPDC and that in the 
opposition parties (most of whom are Ne Win contemporaries) 
is becoming increasingly stark. 
 
9. (C)  Secondly, the appointment of a new Secretary 2 gives 
Secretary 1 Khin Nyunt two potential successors - Major 
 
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General Kyaw Win at military intelligence and Lt. General Soe 
Win at the SPDC.  If he is now sidelined, the powers he holds 
could well be split. 
 
10. (C)  As for the ministers, neither the outgoing Minister 
of Finance nor the departing Minister of Health is going to 
be missed.  Both presided over institutions that were 
national disgraces.  The Ministry of Finance, through its 
inability to manage the budget was the prime culprit in the 
inflationary surge that has threatened to overwhelm Burma's 
economy over the past two years, while the Ministry of 
Health's management of the health system earned Burma the 
booby prize in the WHO's ranking of national health systems 
in 1999.  The new appointees may do no better but the 
incumbents were proved failures. 
 
11. (C)  Finally, the additional justices, deputy justices 
and deputy attorneys general may reflect some incipient 
interest in law reform and the use of legal processes in 
Burma.  This does not mean, of course, that the regime will 
not always get its way, but it does mean they may become a 
little more adept in moving the case load now burdening the 
courts, and in finding the appropriate legal pretext for its 
moves.  End Comment. 
Martinez