US embassy cable - 03RANGOON167

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000167 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
CDR USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2013 
TAGS: PREL, BG, IN, BM 
SUBJECT: WIN AUNG IN INDIA AND OTHER RECENT GOB TOURS OF 
THE NEIGHBORHOOD 
 
REF: A. (A) RANGOON 116 
     B. (B) BEIJING 1078 
     C. (C) 02 DHAKA 3704 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez.  Reason: 1.5 (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: The SPDC's recent trips to India, China, and 
Bangladesh, together with its exchanges with Thailand, are 
intended to shore up regional support for Burma in 
anticipation of a possible deterioration in Burma's relations 
with the West. According to the Director of MFA's Southwest 
and Southwest Asia Division, recent visits to India and 
Bangladesh, in particular, focused on infrastructure links, 
and trade and investment.  Reportedly, Burmese Foreign 
Minister Win Aung came back from India with a $25 million 
soft loan, among other promises. End Summary. 
 
India 
 
2. (C) U Ye Myint, the Director of South and Southwest Asia 
Affairs in Burma's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told poloff 
on February 4 that Foreign Minister Win Aung's January 19 - 
23 trip to India was not intended to reassure India regarding 
Burma's ties with China.  While Win Aung's trip immediately 
followed SPDC Chairman Than Shwe's trip to China, it was part 
of an effort to shore up Burma's regional relations in 
anticipation of a deterioration in relations with the West. 
Right now, no regional states support Western sanctions on 
Burma and the SPDC, with its flurry of recent visits, wanted 
to make sure that there was no change in the position of 
front-line states.  Than Shwe visited Bangladesh and China, 
Win Aung visited India, and Thailand's Prime Minister was 
shortly expected in Rangoon.  In each case, the focus of the 
visit had been, or would be, economic cooperation. 
 
3. (C) In India, Win Aung visited New Delhi, Banglaore and 
Calcutta.  In New Delhi, he met with the Vice President, 
Prime Minister Atal Bihari Bajpayee, Finance Minister (and 
former Foreign Minister) Jaswant Singh, and the new Foreign 
Minister Yaswant Sinha; in Bangalore, he met Hyderabad's 
Chief Minister and, in Calcutta, had meetings with the Indian 
and Burmese business communities.  Reportedly, the 
discussions produced a $25 million "soft" loan from India and 
an invitation to India's Vice President to reciprocate 
General Maung Aye's year 2000 visit to India.  They also 
reviewed progress on a number of infrastructure projects, 
including the trans-Burma highway, which is to run from Tamu 
on the Indian border to Myawaddy on the Thai border; the 
Kaladan Road and River network which is to lead down from 
Mizoram to Sittwe; and the proposed Tamanthi Hydropower plant 
on the Chindwin River.  According to U Ye Myint, all three 
projects are still in the study stage.  A technical team from 
India is due later this month to decide on the "alignment" 
(i.e., route) for the trans-Burma highway; a second team is 
completing studies on the Kaladan River and on enlargement of 
the port at Sittwe (to allow it to take vessels of up to 
6,000 tons); while a third is gathering data for the proposed 
1,000 megawatt plant at Tamanthi.  Hyderabad's Chief Minister 
also promised cooperation on IT development, while a private 
Indian business group (not further identified) floated the 
idea of a joint venture investment in a zinc and tin mine in 
Burma. 
 
4. (C) Win Aung also reviewed the bidding on other issues, 
including border control, India's interest in ASEAN, and the 
development of BIMSTEC.  In regard to border control, Win 
Aung reiterated Burma's interest in cooperation with India in 
controlling insurgents, but ruled out joint patrols. 
According to U Ye Myint, this refusal of joint patrols was a 
long held position which was intended to avoid any 
concessions on sovereignty that other neighbors might 
exploit.  Over time, he said, India had come to understand 
and accept that position.  On ASEAN, U Ye Myint said, Burma 
promised to support India's interest in closer cooperation 
and closer ties.  It also reiterated its intent to play an 
"active role" in BIMSTEC 
 
Bangladesh 
 
5. (C) Than Shwe's December visit to Bangladesh went equally 
well.  According to U Ye Myint, Bangladesh recently adopted 
its own "Look Eastward" policy.  Just as India re-assessed it 
relations with Burma when it saw Chinese/Burmese cooperation 
on the rise, so Bangladesh has done the same as it has 
watched Burmese/Indian relations improve.  During the recent 
visit, he said, the BDG said almost nothing about the 
problems of the Rohingya Muslims and refugee repatriation. 
The focus was almost entirely on trade, investment, and 
infrastructure links.  The BDG was interested in a road link 
from Dhaka through Burma and eventually onward to Thailand, 
shipping links between Chittagong, Rangoon and other coastal 
ports, improved border trade arrangments, and a new trade 
settlement arrangement that would facilitate bilateral trade. 
 The GOB had no intrinsic objections to any of the proposals, 
U Ye Myint said, but had not yet responded formally to any. 
 
Comment 
 
6. (C) U Ye Myint's explanation of the SPDC's recent travels 
rings true.  The GOB appreciates the support it has received 
from neighboring states in bringing to a close many of its 
long running insurgencies, and in dealing with other common 
problems, like narcotics.  It also values the cushion that 
regional states have provided against the impact of Western 
sanctions.  We also note a report in the anti-regime 
Democratic Voice of Burma of January 28 attributed to the 
SPDC's Lt. Gen. Soe Win, in which the general "guaranteed 
that there would be no military intervention against Burma by 
the American government...as Burma is friendly with China, 
this kind of scenario could be protected against."  If the 
DVB quote is accurate, it suggests that the GOB now believes 
that it can rely on regional support not only in dealing with 
common problems (like refugees, narcotics, and regional 
development), but also the West.  Some foreign observers 
still characterize Burma's military regime as xenophobic, but 
the SPDC found out long ago that its interests are better 
served by engagement, at least with near neighbors, than by 
any effort to keep the world at a distance.  That, in fact, 
was one of the major changes that took place when the current 
crew of generals replaced Ne Win back in 1988.  End Comment. 
Martinez