US embassy cable - 03AMMAN858

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000858 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: POWELL SPEECH FAILS TO SWAY JORDANIANS' MINDS ON 
IRAQ 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR DOUGLAS SILLIMAN FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) 
 AND (D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) A quick sampling of Jordanian reaction to Secretary 
Powell,s February 5 
presentation to the UNSC -- including from the Prime Minister 
-- indicates that 
it changed few peoples' minds on the issues of Iraq,s 
failure to comply with 
Resolution 1441, presence of WMD programs, or ties to 
Al-Qaeda.  Many viewed 
the speech as a "declaration of war" against Iraq that 
demonstrated 
-- regardless of Iraq,s efforts to comply with Resolution 
1441 -- the U.S.'s 
determination to go to war.  END SUMMARY 
 
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SECRETARY'S EVIDENCE MALIGNED 
 
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2.  (C)  Many of our contacts told us they believed the 
evidence presented by 
Secretary Powell was "mere fabrication."  Oraib Rantawi, with 
 
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the Al-Quds 
Political Research Center, wondered about the authenticity of 
the photos 
presented.  Faleh Taweel, former Jordanian Ambassador to 
Iraq, said that the 
intercepts of conversations of Iraqi officials were not 
authentic:  Iraqi 
officials would never speak to higher officials as they had 
on tape, he 
claimed.  Many described the evidence as "computer animation" 
and 
"Hollywoodized" evidence. 
 
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JORDANIANS BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE 
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3.  (C)  That many Jordanians, minds were not changed by 
Secretary Powell,s 
 
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speech does not mean they favor Saddam.  Most agreed that 
Saddam,s removal 
would be a positive for the region as a whole and in the long 
term for Jordan 
as well.  However, the overall consensus was that war should 
be avoided at all 
costs.  Osama Malkawi, an attorney and ex parliamentarian, 
commented that a war 
against Iraq will be humiliating to the Arab world, 
particularly considering 
that the U.S. applies a "double standard" when enforcing UN 
resolutions on Iraq 
and Israel.   Malkawi wished the United States would devote 
the same effort and 
intensity to solving the Palestinian problem as it has the 
Iraq issue. 
Further, Malkawi ventured to say how differently the United 
States has dealt 
with North Korea on the similar issue of WMD. 
 
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PM PRAISES SECRETARY, BUT IS STILL SKEPTICAL 
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4.  (S)  Prime Minister Ali Abul Ragheb told the Ambassador 
and PolCouns 
February 6 that the Secretary's presentation "shows that 
there are some doubts" 
about Iraq's cooperation with UN inspectors and WMD programs, 
but provided "no 
solid proof."  He commented that the Secretary "has major 
credibility" in the 
Arab world and had given "a good performance," but "didn't 
show strong facts." 
He concluded that UN inspectors should be given more time to 
do their job, 
commenting that, according to a CNN report he had seen "most 
of the members of 
the Security Council" seem to agree with that assessment. 
The Ambassador 
pushed back, outlining ref points on the Secretary's 
presentation and its 
evidence of lack of Iraqi cooperation, proof of Iraq's 
possession of CBW, and 
the regime's links to Al-Qaeda. 
 
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COMMENT 
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5.  (C)  Many of post,s Jordanian contacts felt that the 
Secretary's speech was geared 
 
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more towards the American audience than to the outside world. 
 They viewed his 
speech as an attempt to consolidate American public opinion 
and increase 
support for the war.  As for  swaying Arab public opinion, 
the consensus 
view here is that the Secretary's speech had only a limited 
impact in Jordan. 
 
GNEHM 
GNEHM