US embassy cable - 03HARARE260

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000260 
 
SIPDIS 
 
USAID/W FOR DCHA/OFDA FOR HAJJAR, KHANDAGLE AND MARX 
DCHA/FFP FOR LANDIS, BRAUSE, SKORIC AND PETERSEN 
AFR/SA FOR POE, FORT AND COPSON 
AFR/SD FOR ISALROW AND WHELAN 
STATE FOR AF/S DELISI AND RAYNOR 
NAIROBI FOR DCHA/OFDA/ARO RILEY, MYER AND SMITH 
REDSO/ESA/FFP FOR SENYKOFF 
NSC FOR DWORKIN 
PRETORIA FOR USAID/DCHA/FFP FOR DISKIN 
DCHA/OFDA FOR BRYAN AND FAS FOR HELM 
ROME PLEASE PASS TO FODAG 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID, PREL, US, ZI 
SUBJECT: UN/Donor/GOZ Meeting on the Zimbabwe Food 
Crisis 
 
REF: Harare 217 
 
Summary:  The US Ambassador and Acting USAID Director 
attended a recent UN-hosted meeting between foreign 
diplomats/donors and GOZ ministers to discuss the food 
situation in Zimbabwe.  The primary topic was the role 
of the GOZ in acquiring and distributing the staple 
food, maize, in the coming months.  So far the GOZ 
claims to have imported about 686,000 MT of maize.  For 
the next hunger season (May 2003 - April 2004) the GOZ 
expects a harvest of about 571,000 MT and to import 
another 230,000 MT for a total stock of about 802,000 MT 
verses a demand of nearly 1.9 million MT.  The GOZ 
expects the resulting deficit of about 1.1 million MT to 
be covered by a winter crop, additional GOZ imports, and 
donor contributions.  The GOZ also expressed a 
willingness to consider wheat monetization.  Both the 
GOZ and WFP discussed constraints to importing 
additional food. 
 
In addition, the GOZ discussed the current livestock 
situation ("critical") and an up-coming nationwide 
health/nutritional survey sponsored by the GOZ, WHO and 
UNICEF.  End Summary. 
 
1.  On 27 January 2003, US Ambassador Sullivan and 
Acting USAID Director attended a periodic meeting 
organized by the UN for diplomats to discus issues 
related to the humanitarian crisis with cabinet level 
representatives of the GOZ.  While most embassies were 
represented by ambassadors/high commissioners, only the 
Minister of Health (MoH), the Minister of Small 
Enterprise Development (MoSME), the Deputy Minister for 
Education, the Director of Veterinary and Livestock 
Services at the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), and an 
Office Director from the Ministry of Public Service, 
Labor, and Social Welfare (MoPSLSW) (Mr. Mitzi) were 
present for the GOZ. The UN Humanitarian Coordinator 
(UNHC) opened the meeting with a review of the visit and 
discussions of UN Special Envoy for the humanitarian 
crisis, James Morris. (See REFTEL) 
 
2.  The EU Ambassador opened the discussion from the 
floor by suggesting that it is now necessary to "fast- 
track" a food monetization program for Zimbabwe.  The 
Minister of Health responded that the GOZ would welcome 
a written proposal.  The Ambassador also repeated an 
earlier request for a written explanation of the role of 
the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) in providing food during 
the current crisis.  Mr. Mitzi stated that such a 
document is being prepared.  The SME Minister also noted 
the need for transparency of the GMB. 
 
3.  Mr. Mitzi then provided information on food imports 
by the GOZ as follows: 
 
-Total maize imported February through mid-December 
2002:  685,784 MT (the EU requested figures for the last 
6 weeks as well). 
-GOZ estimate of 2002/3 maize harvest:  571,347 MT, of 
which 56,335 MT will be turned over to GMB (Comment: we 
presume that the rest will be grown at subsistence level 
on communal farms and therefore not enter the market). 
-In addition to the harvest, GOZ expects GMB to have 
230,965 MT on hand (Comment: this is actually planned 
imports). 
-Therefore, GOZ expects to have a total national maize 
stock for the period July 2003-June 2004 of 802,312 MT 
against a total consumption need (human and livestock) 
of 1,895,843 MT.  This means a GOZ planned deficit of 
1,093,531 MT for 2003/4 which is to be met from "winter 
cropping, government imports, and humanitarian aid." 
 
4.  WFP noted that it will cost approximately US$300 
million to meet a 1,000,000 MT deficit. 
 
5.  The MoPSLSW recognizes the following constraints in 
meeting the country's maize requirements: 
 
-foreign currency shortage; 
-the regional drought is causing congestion in the 
supply routes; 
-congestion at the Beitbridge border post; 
-a critical shortage of locomotives; 
-insufficient forex to bid on land transport vehicles 
(regionally);  and 
-shortage of smaller trucks for the GMB to deliver food 
within the country. 
 
Donors also asked for similar information on other 
commodities (e.g., wheat, beans, etc.). 
 
6.  WFP made the following comments about its program: 
 
-WFP is bringing in 2,500-3,000 MT per day; 
-import permit problems are improving; 
-WFP is developing a contingency stock of fuel; 
-the WFP pipeline will dry up sometime between March and 
April 2003;  and 
-availability of South African rail cars is becoming a 
serious constraint. 
 
7.  A representative from the MOH briefed the group on 
the up-coming UNICEF/WHO/GOZ nutrition survey of 
children under 60 months.  This survey is to follow up 
on an assessment done in May 2002.  It will include all 
districts in both rural and urban areas.  It will look 
at wasting, stunting, underweight, vitamin A, feeding 
patterns of orphans, common childhood illnesses, 
mortality, and supplemental feeding.  Training is going 
on now, and field work is expected to be completed late 
February with a first draft planned for early March. 
 
8.  The MOA representative reported on the livestock 
situation as follows: 
 
-The current drought is having a major impact - over 
20,000 animals have been reported to have died between 
October 2002 and January 2003 in Matabeleland Province 
alone (the actual number is probably much higher). 
-Stock feed supply is critical, which is also severely 
impacting on the dairy, pig, and poultry industries. 
-Foot-and-Mouth disease is getting worse.  Note:  He 
blamed this on the regional nature of the crisis - the 
crisis in Botswana could have been prevented if Botswana 
had bought vaccines for Zimbabwe back in October 2002 
when the problem began - and on the lack of forex to buy 
vaccines. 
-While the number of dairy farms has decreased by 20-25% 
(due to the resettlement program) the national dairy 
heard has remained about the same size as cows are 
transferred between farms, but milk production has 
decreased (current demand is 13 million liters while 
production is only 7-8 million liters per month). 
 
Comment:  The meeting produced some good information 
from the government, for a change; but still not enough. 
Despite improvements in current WFP operations, the GOZ 
projections paint a fairly bleak picture regarding 
future humanitarian assistance prospects in Zimbabwe, 
indicating that the magnitude of the crisis is not 
likely to abate soon, and that continued substantial 
humanitarian assistance - similar to or more than last 
year's levels -- will likely be required over the coming 
year.  SULLIVAN