US embassy cable - 03ANKARA881

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 000881 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/SE, EUR/PD, NEA/PD, DRL 
JCS PASS J-5/CDR S. WRIGHT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, TU, Press Summaries 
SUBJECT: ANKARA MEDIA REACTION REPORT 
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 2003 
 
 
THIS REPORT WILL PRESENT A TURKISH PRESS SUMMARY UNDER THREE 
THEMES: 
 
 
HEADLINES 
BRIEFING 
EDITORIAL OPINION 
                         ------- 
 
 
HEADLINES 
 
 
MASS APPEAL 
Turkey, U.S. agreement on Mosul, Kirkuk - Hurriyet 
Critical day: Powell to disclose evidence against Iraq - 
Turkiye 
120,000 Turkish troops to Northern Iraq to halt refugees - 
Sabah 
U.S. troops to Iraq via Iskenderun - Aksam 
Peace hopes diminishing - Vatan 
Baykal warns Gul: Kurdish state must be prevented - Milliyet 
 
 
OPINION MAKERS 
Nuclear threat to Baghdad - Radikal 
Government to handle war authorization after Sacrifice 
Holiday - Zaman 
Oil prices will soar if U.S. attacks - Yeni Safak 
In war, U.S. will save oil wells first - Cumhuriyet 
 
 
FINANCIAL JOURNALS 
Central Bank: Turkey needs 2.5 year for full stability - 
Dunya 
Inflation on the rise - Finansal Forum 
 
 
 
 
BRIEFING 
 
 
Iraq: Prime Minister Gul reportedly told opposition party 
CHP leader Baykal on Monday that the government would allow 
350 warplanes and 40,000 U.S. troops on Turkish territory. 
Gul said the issue would be discussed in the parliament 
right after the U.S. presents evidence against Iraq to the 
UNSC on February 5.  Gul emphasized that U.S. offers for 
reparation of Turkey's losses were `satisfactory,' according 
to the reports.  Many AKP deputies are against a war, and 
the government is exerting an effort to convince them to 
approve the presence of foreign troops in Turkey.  "Aksam" 
says that Gul has assured Baykal that U.S. troops will only 
be given transit passage to Northern Iraq via Turkey's 
Iskenderun harbor.  "Sabah" reports that Turkey will send to 
Northern Iraq about 120,000 troops as a `preventive 
measure.'  "Hurriyet" reports that Turkey, the U.S., and the 
Northern Iraqi Kurdish groups have worked out an 
understanding regarding Mosul and Kirkuk.  According to the 
report, Turkish and Kurdish troops will not enter Mosul and 
Kirkuk, the security in that area will be guaranteed by the 
U.S., and Turkey will have the right to intervene if the 
Kurds attempt to occupy the area. 
 
 
"Milliyet" on the new U.S. envoy to Turkey: "Milliyet" 
evaluates a recent NYT story that U.S. Ambassador to Ankara, 
Robert Pearson, will be replaced by Vice President Cheney's 
advisor Eric Edelman.  The paper criticizes Ambassador 
Pearson for denying a Milliyet report accusing the U.S. of 
carrying out secret meetings with PKK leaders in Northern 
Iraq.  The paper denounces former and current U.S. envoys 
for launching covert threats to Turkey, and expects the new 
ambassador to establish good ties with the Turkish 
government on the basis of mutual interest. 
 
 
Cyprus: Papers carry UK Cyprus envoy Sir Michael Hannay's 
warning that a failure to compromise on Cyprus will have a 
negative impact on Turkey's EU drive.  Following his 
meetings at the MFA on Monday, Sir Hannay pointed to the 
limited time for substantive changes to the Annan plan, and 
added that he has seen signs of compromise on the Greek 
Cypriot side.  Hannay noted that once the Greek Cypriots 
gain full EU membership, it will be more difficult to reach 
an agreement that is acceptable to the Turkish side.  He 
complained about Denktas' efforts to block the discussion of 
land issues.  Sir Hannay believes the issue of Turkish 
troops on the island should be discussed with the Turkish 
government. 
 
 
Economy: The wholesale price inflation figure for January 
was 5.6 percent, and consumer price inflation was 2.6 
percent, marking unexpected increases in the annual 
inflation rates to 32.6 percent and 26.4 percent 
respectively.  Reports claim that the increase in inflation 
for the first time in 12 months has been caused by the 
government's indecisiveness and excessive spending.  Dailies 
call attention to the 40,000 workers who have lost their 
jobs in the banking sector.  15,000 of the workers have 
applied for just 10 new vacancies at Garanti Bank. 
Meanwhile, the Turkish Aerospace Industry (TAI) will 
complete production of 30 Cougar AS-532 helicopters in 
February, according to press reports. 
 
 
 
 
EDITORIAL OPINION: Iraq 
 
 
"For the sake of a lame-duck dictator" 
Editor-in-Chief Ertugrul Ozkok opined in mass appeal 
Hurriyet (2/4): "Saddam Hussein is a `de facto' lame duck 
even as we speak.  It will be a miracle if Iraq shows 
bravery in the war.  Turkey should make its plans based on 
real politics and stay away from conventional or old- 
fashioned stances.  Turkey is a genuine force in this region 
and has to have a say in its reshaping.  Any policy that 
might dilute Turkey's role and influence in the reshaping 
process will be costly for Turkey. . Let's all brain-storm a 
little: What would Turkey actually prefer in northern Iraq? 
Turkish soldiers meeting US forces in northern Iraq, or 
Turkish soldiers meeting Saddam's forces there?  In which 
option will Turkey face a lesser possibility of refugees? 
You don't have to be a military strategist to provide 
answers to these questions.   Turkey should not be engaged 
in a war, but should allow American troops and equipment to 
pass through the country.  Turkish policy cannot be 
formulated based on the interests of a lame-duck dictator." 
 
 
"The calendar " 
Sami Kohen wrote in mass appeal Milliyet (4/4): "The 
upcoming war is becoming more apparent every day.  It is 
inevitable as well as imminent.  . The northern front seems 
to be the best option, and it is also the US's preference. 
Yet the US is determined to open a northern front in any 
case with or without the help of Turkey.  In the absence of 
Turkey's permission, US and UK troops will go ahead through 
alternate channels to provide a dual front: one from the 
north and one from the south.  . Ankara tries to adjust the 
`war calendar' based on its own interests, yet the fact of 
the matter is that there is very little we can do about it. 
Turkey is trapped between anti-war public opinion and 
problems related with war, and the reality of the war, which 
is imminent.  . At the current stage, the argument that we 
should stay completely out of it is neither realistic nor 
pragmatic.  The government will have to seek the 
parliament's approval for the modernization of bases, the 
transit movement of US troops, and the movement of Turkish 
troops to northern Iraq.  It is only a matter of timing, and 
we better be catching up with the real calendar - that is, 
the deadline, which is February 14." 
 
 
PEARSON