US embassy cable - 03FRANKFURT986

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 000986 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, EAIR, GM 
SUBJECT: KOCH AND CDU WIN ABSOLUTE MAJORITY IN HESSE 
 
REF: A) 2002 FRANKFURT 00550; B) FRANKFURT 00682 
 
1.  (U) The Hesse CDU, led by Minister President Roland Koch 
won the February 2 elections in Hesse with an absolute 
majority, a first in the state's postwar history.  The SPD 
recorded an unprecedented defeat, falling ten percent from 
its 1999 results.  The Green Party received more than 10 
percent, their second best result ever.  The FDP got more of 
the vote than it had for 30 years, but will no longer be a 
part of the state government.  The results are as follows, 
with the second number showing the change compared with 
1999: 
 
CDU:      48.8 percent (+5.4) 
SPD:      29.1 percent (-10.3) 
Greens:   10.1 percent (+2.9) 
FDP:       7.9 percent (+2.8) 
 
The CDU is Happy, But Nobody Else 
--------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) The CDU now has 56 seats in the 110 seat state 
parliament, the slimmest possible absolute majority, but an 
absolute majority nonetheless.  CDU party followers 
attribute the unprecedented victory mainly to voter 
unhappiness with the national government, but also to 
Minister-President Roland Koch's strong performance both in 
the campaign and as state leader.  The new Koch 
administration will certainly use its mandate for bolder CDU 
policy initiatives including Frankfurt airport expansion, 
which Koch energetically promotes.  Some CDU members as well 
as Koch himself did not really want an absolute majority, 
preferring a coalition with the FDP instead.  Koch offered 
the possibility to form a coalition, but the FDP leadership 
refused, stating it would have no leverage under the current 
circumstances. 
 
3. (U) The FDP is now the smallest party in the state and 
the mood is mainly negative.  State FDP Chairperson and 
current Justice Minister Ruth Wagner said bitterly, "We 
saved Roland Koch (referring to the CDU financing scandal in 
2000) but he reaps the reward."  The Green Party recorded 
its first state election gain in Germany in five years and 
their second best result ever in Hesse.  The Hesse Greens 
were strong opponents of Frankfurt airport expansion, but 
constituencies in the neighborhood of the airport saw only a 
slight increase in the Green vote. 
 
The Hesse SPD in Shambles 
------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) The impact of the defeat is enormous within the 
state SPD.  The party had never received less than 36 
percent of the vote in the state's postwar history.  Party 
Chairman and Caucus Chief Gerhard Boekel stepped down from 
both positions following the defeat.  The party now faces a 
serious power vacuum and infighting over its future 
direction.  The times are now gone when Hesse could be 
considered a swing state.  "Hesse is black now," one SPD 
member said, referring to the CDU party's color.  The SPD 
won only two of 55 constituencies and lost in nearly all of 
their traditional strongholds.  The SPD results were called 
"disastrous," "catastrophic," and "apocalyptic."  Most SPD 
supporters put the blame on Chancellor Schroeder.  One 
remarked cynically, "We should go and put stickers on our 
campaign posters saying `Thank you Gerhard.'"  Some said 
Boekel did a good job, but his predecessors (Finance 
Minister Hans Eichel as State Party Chairman and Armin 
Clauss as Caucus Chief) stepped down too late, leaving 
Boekel only a year to campaign.  Chancellor Schroeder's 
lukewarm support for Boekel was also viewed as "too little, 
too late."  At SPD caucus headquarters in Wiesbaden on 
election night, hard feelings towards "those in Berlin" were 
barely disguised. 
 
Iraq Did Not Play a Role 
------------------------ 
 
5.  (U) Despite the SPD's last minute scramble with 
petitions against a war in Iraq, most observers agree that 
the Iraq issue did not play any significant role in the 
state elections.  In exit polling, only one percent of the 
voters claimed to have been influenced by Iraq. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  (SBU) Koch's victory strengthens his position on both 
state and national levels.  The likelihood of his becoming a 
chancellor candidate in 2006 is now much stronger.  In 
contrast to CDU Party Chair Angela Merkel, Koch can now say 
he delivered Hesse for the CDU while Merkel has never won an 
election.  Koch's biggest obstacle will continue to be his 
polarizing personality.  (Hesse Broadcasting presented an 
exit poll on February 2 showing that Koch is the most 
polarizing politician since the late CSU leader and Bavarian 
Minister-President Franz Josef Strauss.)  Koch no longer has 
the FDP to tone down his image and balance his policies.  He 
will have to find ways to accomplish this on his own.  End 
comment. 
 
7. (U) This message has been coordinated with Embassy 
Berlin. 
 
BODDE